The 'great game' in its old turf

However, the changes did not come out of the blue. In the wake of 9/11, the situation in Central Asia underwent a sudden dramatic change. With the American fury having been ignited in the smouldering flames of Pentagon, President Bush was on warpath. Both Russia and China might have calculated that helping the US in its war on terror in Afghanistan would be a good idea because it wouldn't only bring an end to the much feared Taliban regime, it would also earn them largesse in one form or other as well as 'brownie' point with Bush which they could cash in later. Little could they know of the blueprint for a long and rapidly expanding US presence in Central Asia -- drawn up by the neo-cons in Washington.

Earlier, in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union its constituent republics in Central Asia suddenly found their umbilical chord to Moscow severed. The local party chiefs of the Soviet period lost no time in declaring their republics independent, of course, with the acquiescence of Moscow which perhaps presumed that these republics in its backyard -- acquired through bloody military subjugation over the past centuries -- would continue to rotate around the Russian 'sun'.

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But the politico-strategic equation in Central Asia had already started showing the sign of undergoing profound metamorphosis in the region with the coming of the Americans in the name of fighting terrorism in Afghanistan. What started as the Americans merely obtaining 'base' facilities in Central Asian states to prosecute war in Afghanistan they were gradually lured by the region's rich energy resources. Irresistibly the Americans developed long-term interests in Central Asia's natural endowments and got engaged in a calibrated effort to bring about 'regime changes' for installing pliant governments to be dictated by them on what would happen to the resources lying buried under the arid surface of Central Asian steppes.

Neither Beijing nor Moscow could earlier sense this game plan. When they did, its first fallout was an inevitable coming together of China and Russia to face the impending menace. In this regard the first step was to transform the old talking shop known as 'Shanghai Five' into the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The initiative was meant for bringing the Central Asian states back to their fold. Apart from its original five members Uzbekistan joined the SCO in 2001 while Mongolia, India, Pakistan and Iran were also accepted as observers.

By all reckoning SCO is likely to play an important role in charting the course of events in Central Asia. Although the SCO's primary aim is to promote the mutual trade and investment its most significant area of cooperation may however turn out to be energy. The leaders are already discussing implementation of major projects relating to the pipelines from Central Asia to China's Xinjiang province and another from Russia to China which have already aroused considerable interests in the US. There are also plans for auto-trains and motorways linking Europe and China.

It has some justifications when the SCO claims to have provided unique political opportunity and fundamentally new model of geographical integration for the small countries in the region. Embracing almost two third of mainland Eurasia and uniting countries with different civilisation, culture and economic system the SCO's magnitude of functioning and transregional status make it an unprecedented experiment. As both Russia and China assert their role in determining the future shape of things in Central Asian region their cooperation experienced fresh boon with their realisation that the Bush administration, not satisfied only with the base facilities was now engaged in a concerted effort to bring about regime change in Central Asian states.

First it was the Rose revolution in Georgia that brought into power an avowedly pro-American government. Then it was Ukraine where the Orange revolution ended Moscow's influence in an area considered part of Russian heartland. Moscow also nervously watched its ally being drummed out of the capital in Kirghystan and an attempt being made to oust Uzbekistan's pro-Moscow leader Islam Karimov. The scale of dangers posed by American plan was no more unclear.

The power play intensified when at this stage Moscow stepped in and managed to salvage the situation in Kirghystan by engineering a compromise which kept power in the hands of its friends. Then defying the machinations of Washington it came out openly and strongly in support of the Uzbek leader. In July last the Sino-Russian summit in Moscow provided the platform for a major policy pronouncement by their leaders. In a solemn declaration significantly called the 'World order in 21st century' the leaders of both the countries presidents Hu and Putin rejected "attempts to ignore objective processes of social developments of sovereign states and impose on them alien model of social and political system."

This was a categorical 'No' to all the Bush administration has been proclaiming as its goal in different part of the world. The stage having been set for a clear delineation of competing philosophies the SCO summit sometimes later came out with even tougher stance than before. The summit rejected "attempts at monopoly and domination in international affair." The Sanghai group called upon the US to set up a deadline for the withdrawal of its bases from the region now that the anti-terror campaign in Afghanistan has come to an end while affirming their resolve to fight the menace with their own forces.

It is not clear if the Americans would oblige but in the meantime Russia is welcomed back in her former republics and she has decided to come out more forcefully in defence of its interest in the region. As regard China her energy requirement is so great and growing so rapidly that it has no option but to enter into long-term arrangements with Russia and Central Asian republics to secure guaranteed oil and gas supply from the region.

By all appearance the region is in the throes of a violent clash between the powers concerned to safeguard the best of their interests.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.