Challenges for Bangladesh as a stable and developing country

Recently I had the occasion to attend a colloquium where the World Bank Country Director circulated a quiz named South Asia Development Quiz containing 22 multiple choice questions on four South Asian Countries -- Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan. Quoting from the World Bank's own publications the answers were also provided by the Country Director herself. The answers are summarised below:

Bangladesh has the lowest income inequality (Gini index) and maternal mortality rate; has achieved fastest decrease in fertility in the whole world, not only in South Asia, by non-coercive means. It is the first and only country to have eliminated Polio; Bangladesh's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP is the lowest; its proportion of women in its labour force is the highest among the four. The country has achieved the fastest reduction in infant and child mortality not only among its three South Asian neighbours but also among all the developing countries in the world. Infant mortality has been cut to half from 144 to 69 per 1000 live births. Public expenditure on education is 15.5 percent of total government expenditure that is the highest among the four South Asian countries. Also primary school enrollment in Bangladesh is almost 100 percent and it is one of the highest in the developing world. Bangladesh is the only country in South Asia that has never defaulted on any IPP contracts in the power sector. It has the highest rates of child immunisation, including measles (77%) and DPT (85%). During the 1990s, the incidence of poverty in India and Bangladesh declined by 1 percentage point per year -- a record exceeding that of most developing countries around the world. Over 95 percent of Bangladesh's population has access to bacteria-free safe drinking water that is also highest compared with her neighbours. Bangladesh distinguishes itself for being one of the three low-income countries (per capita income below US$ 745) on track to achieve the child mortality reduction goal. The other two countries are Vietnam and Indonesia. The power tariffs are closer to cost recovery than India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal. Bangladesh's GDP grew by 4.

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8 percent per year (overall 60% increase), exceeded only by India where 6 percent growth occurred and the growth rate of Bangladesh was most consistent or, in other words, least volatile. India and Bangladesh belong to 10 most rapidly growing economies amongst 31 large developing countries having population greater than 20 million.

The success story, however, ends here. Now we look at the failures that are not only very grave but also dangerous nullifying the effects of the achievements mentioned in the preceding paragraph. In the quiz, out of 22 questions there were four to which we find very negative replies. The first one is about control of corruption. Bangladesh ranks worst with -1.09, followed by Pakistan (-0.87), Nepal (-0.61) and India (-0.31). Secondly, in regard to 'public service effectiveness' Bangladesh ranks second lowest with -0.72, followed by Pakistan (-0.57) and India (-0.04). Nepal's score (-0.90). Thirdly, Bangladesh ranks lowest on Rule of Law Indicator. The score is as follows: Bangladesh -0.86, Nepal -0.82, Pakistan -0.78 and India -0.09. Fourthly, from the point of view of regulatory quality indicator also Bangladesh's rank is at the lowest with -1.15, followed by Nepal (-1.03), Pakistan (-0.60) and India (-0.59).

From the above it will be seen that the performances of Bangladesh in 18 areas have been the best for which a Bangladeshi can genuinely be proud of. But the country is looked down upon by many countries of the world as well as by the multilateral donor agencies because of the negative and worst performance in respect of the four areas as shown in the preceding paragraph. The answers to these four questions have marred everything overshadowing the commendable performances in other areas. Let us discuss these four sad commentaries one by one:

Control of Corruption: Corruption in Bangladesh is all-pervasive, rather one of the highest in the world as has been revealed in the repeated Corruption Perception Indices worked out by the Transparency International. Whether one agrees with TI's ranking of Bangladesh being the most corrupt country of the world or not, there cannot be any denying of the fact that we are a very corrupt country. On the one hand this all pervasive corruption is causing loss, pilferage and wastage of scarce national resources and on the other it is creating myriad problems including portraying a very negative image of the country seriously affecting FDI flow as well as flow of bilateral and multilateral aid. The irony is that none of the political parties is willing to admit existence of corruption, not to speak of admitting its ever-increasing trend, when it is in power. But the same party will vociferously claim prevalence of corruption when it will be in the opposition.

The government, presumably under donor pressure, has constituted a statutory body, Anti-Corruption Commission, to combat corruption. But, unfortunately, the ACC is still a non-starter. It is yet to organise itself into a functioning body. Its rules and regulations are yet to be framed, manpower selected, logistics procured to become operational. The ACC has not got the necessary support from the government, it is alleged. The team is not a cohesive body, often divided in their views and approach. The ACC is yet to show that it can bite and is capable of rising to the occasion. Its impact on corruption control effort is yet to be felt although a considerable period of time has already passed.

Perhaps, the greatest reason for failure to arrest corruption by the now-defunct Bureau of Anti-Corruption and its successor, the much-vaunted ACC, is the lack of commitment at the political leadership level of the Government. Corruption control effort was itself corruption ridden and politically interfered with. What will be the scenario under the changed circumstances is yet to be seen, but the outlook does not appear to be encouraging and the general perception is disappointing. The country can hardly afford to lose any more time for the ACC to be become operational.

Public Service Effectiveness: The reason for bad performance is not far to seek. State monopoly, scarcity and corruption are responsible for this unhappy situation. Some of the unbundling efforts of the government were met with trade union resistance with cascading effects. The trade unions have a tendency to show irresponsible behaviour due mainly to the fact that the political parties for narrow political gains constituting adherence to unethical norms pamper all the trade unions. Examples of promoting the interest of the labourers and workers at the cost of national interest by the political parties are many. This problem can be addressed only when the political parties will refrain from irresponsible and unethical behaviour. Moreover, lack of consensus among the political parties on major socio-economic and political institutions of the country is a serious hindrance to bring discipline in the trade union activities.

Rule of Law: Rule of Law is absent in the country. Here also bad governance and lack of commitment of the government are mainly responsible for almost non-existence of rule of law. Combined with these factors the weak and inefficient law and order machinery, politicisation of law enforcing authorities and judiciary are contributing towards creating a downward trend in the situation. Corruption in law enforcing machinery and judiciary is also a very big contributor to the ever-deteriorating law and order situation.

Regulatory Quality: Prevalence of very low regulatory quality can be attributed to the lack of commitment on the part of the regulatory authorities coupled with their inadequate capacity to operate effectively. The situation has been accentuated by political interference.

From the picture depicted above it is seen that despite Bangladesh's achieving tremendous success in a large number of areas for which she can be proud of (although these success stories are going unnoticed and unrecognised by the outside world, even by many within the country) her failures are of very serious nature so much so that the failures far outweigh and overshadow the successes. A country may not be able to achieve successes in all directions at a time simultaneously. What is important is whether the negative aspects are overwhelming and can lead to a situation that will be disastrous for a country. Corruption, public service ineffectiveness, unsatisfactory rule of law and low regulatory quality are ominous signs -- these outweigh the benefits of the achievements so far gained. The situation is all the more dangerous due to the fact that determined efforts -- visible, effective and transparent -- to arrest the downward slide are lacking. From that point of view the possibility of heading towards a catastrophe cannot be ruled out. Moreover the recent emergence of, and show of strength by, religious militant groups appear to be the last straw on the camel's back.

In the ultimate analysis these are all due to governance failure and it will be very unfortunate if things go wrong as is being apprehended by many. But none of the above problems is unmanageable and insurmountable. Commitment on the part of the political leadership for good governance is wanting which is making all the difference. A determined leadership with firm commitment uninfluenced by political consideration can still bring about the necessary changes in the situation. Things cannot be changed overnight but a good beginning with as much firmness as it deserves and a clear message that the government means business, can perhaps lay a foundation for reversing the trend.

M. Hafizuddin Khan is ex-Comptroller and Auditor General of Bangladesh