Disaster time

At 8.55 am on Saturday October 8, the region from Kabul in the west to New Delhi in the east was severely rocked. Cities as far away as Dhaka felt some tremors, the shocks went on until 9:05 am. Epicentred 95 kms northeast of Islamabad, the most powerful earthquake to hit this region in a 100 years was recorded at 7.6 on the Richter Scale, the main focus of death and destruction targeting northern Pakistan in a wide swath from Peshawar to Azad Kashmir. Media attention riveted the first morning on rescue efforts directed at the two collapsed blocks of "Margalla Towers" in Islamabad's posh F-10 sector, diverting attention from the massive human and material devastation in Azad Kashmir, Kaghan and Kohistan valleys till hours later. With electricity and telephone lines down, reports about a greater disaster in the mountains came in patches, eg 30 percent houses collapsed in Mansehra, 60 percent in Muzaffarabad, 80 percent in Rawalakot and Balakot, etc, entire villages perched on the hillsides disappearing in mudslides. In the next 24 hours, 40 aftershocks (of which only 17-18 were perceptible) added to the panic.

Beginning Saturday afternoon, bad news starting coming in droves from all over and kept coming, from Peshawar, Mansehra, Garhi Habibullah, Abbottabad and even Lahore, etc. Widespread devastation was reported from Kaghan, Shinkiari, Shangla, Batal, Gul Mera, Ughi, Naran, and other places not commonplace for the public. Give the government (or rather the Pakistan army) credit. From a standing start, the army provided the core of the relief mechanism. Supported by PAF, the army mobilised its entire helicopter fleet to carry out extensive reconnaissance of the area for damage estimation, providing quick relief wherever possible. The silver lining was the presence of the army, itself losing over 200 dead and 400 injured, all over the mountains and valleys of Kashmir, engaged in intensive relief work within hours, providing helicopters, engineers, doctors, manpower, etc. For many of those trapped under the debris of collapsing houses it may have been too late.

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The critical Karokoram Highway (KKH) remains blocked due to landslides in many places along its entire 600 kms length. So is the main road to Muzaffarabad. However some alternate roads have been cleared, evacuating casualties to nearest hospitals and providing supplies is almost totally dependant upon helicopters. Limited by numbers in coping with the magnitude of the devastation, army aviation helicopters did magnificent work, keeping the relief momentum going. Our MI-8s and MI-17s are not enough to cope with such a catastrophe. As a former helicopter pilot (Alouette-3) with extensive mountain area casualty evacuation and forward dumping experience in Azad Kashmir, Northern Areas and Sinkiang Province of China, my heart goes out for the helicopter crews. Chopper flying in such conditions takes its toll. The wear and tear on the helicopter and crews must be monitored closely, they will push themselves beyond normal endurance limits, they should not write cheques neither their body nor their equipment can cash. But I say this with pride that in the face of this catastrophe our "eagles" will not listen and I salute them for it! During cyclone relief operations in East Pakistan in 1970 (when only two MI-8s and two Alouette-3s took the load), then Col (later Maj Gen) Nasirullah Khan Babar pushed us (and himself) to extreme limits. He and Maj (later Brig) Tirmizi put in as many flying hours as any of us during the day, then attended daily "Relief Coordination Conferences" till late at night!

Maj Gen Shaukat Sultan, Director General (DG) Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) initially confirmed 18,000 dead and over 41,000 injured. With villages perched precariously on sides of the mountains, and the timing (about 9 am) during Ramazan, one fears that this will be revised upwards many times over, it could well be beyond 60,000 dead, a mind-boggling 90,000 to 100,000, even more. Almost all my company employees (security and courier personnel) from Azad Kashmir, Kaghan and Kohistan valleys lost some loved ones, my driver Ashraf rushing home to Muzaffarabad on hearing about the sad demise of his mother. Col (Retd) Qayyum, our Group Zonal Head for Rawalakot, with whom I could only get through on October 11 lost 9 in his immediate vicinity, 3 of his children were buried under the debris but survived. Throughout the mountains, this human tragedy will be played out from town to town, entire villages have disappeared. A blinding thunderstorm the same night made the roads impossible and turned the rubble into mudslides.

Let's provide disaster relief and restore basic services of electricity, water, etc, we can discuss shortcomings later. No government can really plan for the worst. The first few days are always chaotic and haphazard. Give the government credit at least for mobilising relief swiftly. Pervez Musharraf led from the front, showing the way by visiting nearly all disaster areas and many hospitals. The "Disaster Relief Cell" in the PM's house will certainly do good, but will it be enough? The challenge is to create organisation from haphazard, disjointed effort, to create clean orderly flow-lines from chaos. The tough mountain terrain means the best cannot be good enough.

The need is to set up a permanent Disaster Management Organisation, the US has its FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency). Call it anything else here but let's get on with it. Quoting my article "Coping With Disaster" written only a month ago to the day on September 8 after Hurricane "Katrina" had hit the US: "Whether it comes with a warning or is a surprise, coping with any kind of disaster, whether natural or man-made, does not differ in essentials. Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) are common for both. First and foremost we must pre-position supplies, particularly potable water, meals ready to eat (MRE), medical requisites, blankets, tents, etc. One may include containerised field ambulance units ready to match up with earmarked doctors. For mass evacuation, vehicles must be earmarked as well as possible destinations. Flooding being commonplace in most disasters, collapsible flat-bottom boats with outboard motors and submersible generators and pumps should also be stored. Lightly armed troops trained to handle both disaster relief and law and order must be earmarked, carrying only vitally necessary equipment to avoid being over-burdened. Civilian personnel to supervise and administer relief efforts, medical staff, communications personnel, engineers with heavy earth-moving equipment and cranes, as well as containerised communication units must be clearly earmarked. "Disaster Mobilisation Plans" as well as "Disaster Relief Plans" for each area have to be coordinated and dovetailed with Provincial and Federal Plans. Sufficient Reserve Funds, activated only during an emergency, must be kept aside." This is not nuclear science, it is simple commonsense!

The disaster relief must be kept apolitical, to quote: "The command structure should flow directly from the President, a permanent Crisis Management Agency being established under the Chairman Joint Services Committee (CJSC) for effective coordination of ground, air and naval resources in support of the effort of the civil administration. The Ministry of Finance must devise an Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) to address post-disaster issues. People will be without jobs, without food and shelter, their children will be without schools, continuing medical care will be needed and rehabilitation thereof, etc, etc. The short, medium and long-term economic consequences and remedial measures thereof have to be worked out, each disaster will have different dynamics."

Are we in Pakistan up to it or will we resort to what we normally do, the politics of exploiting tragedy?

Ikram Sehgal, a former Major of Pakistan Army, is a political analyst and columnist.