India and Pakistan edge towards detente

Consequently, there has been a series of ministerial and high official-level meetings between the two countries in recent months and new areas have been identified for bilateral cooperation. After long 16 years the Indo-Pakistan Joint Commission has been revived. Foreign Ministers Natwar Singh and Khurshid Kasuri headed their respective delegations at the just concluded session in Islamabad, which produced concrete results. Two agreements have been signed in the areas of pre-notification of flight-testing of ballistic missiles and the memorandum of understanding for the establishment of channel of communication link between the two maritime security authorities. More importantly, the two sides have undertaken discussions to evolve a road map for the demilitarisation of Siachen glaciers and Sir Creek dispute relating to the delimitation of their maritime boundaries. More progress is expected in these two sensitive areas at the next round of composite talks in January.

Experts believe that the Indo-Pakistan accords will have highly favourable impact in three main areas, namely the security sector, economic cooperation and greater people-to-people contact between the two countries. The pre-notification accord and the earlier agreement on prohibiting attacks on nuclear facilities are significant confidence building measures between the two Asian nuclear powers, which had been on the brink of a nuclear showdown in the summer of 2002. The establishment of a channel of communication between the two maritime security authorities would significantly reduce the humanitarian problem created due to arrest of fishermen of both countries who unknowingly stray into the territorial waters of the other country.

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However, the most visible change of improved bilateral ties is in the areas of transportation between the two countries. New links have been established and old links have been restored to facilitate greater people to people contacts. Air links have been established between Mumbai-Karachi and Lahore-New Delhi sectors; rail link has been restored between Wagah and the Khokrapar. Bus services have already been established between Lahore and New Delhi and more importantly, between Muzaffarabad and Srinagar in Kashmir. The two countries have also agreed to establish bus services between Amritsar and Lahore, and Amritsar and Nankana Sahib. India and Pakistan are setting up consulates in Karachi and Mumbai respectively, and efforts are being made to simplify visa system to facilitate travel between the two countries.

It is true that both sides have not so far directly addressed the core issue of Kashmir; nonetheless, the negotiating atmosphere has radically changed. Previously, Islamabad used to maintain that Kashmir issue has to be resolved first before any progress could be made in other areas of bilateral cooperation. New Delhi, on the other hand, used to insist that Pakistan must completely curb all terrorist activities and movement of militants from their side of the Line of Control (LOC) before any discussions of the issue. Both sides have now significantly softened their stand. Islamabad has dropped that prerequisite and seriously curbs movement of all militants and terrorist activities.

During recent months, important steps have been taken to reduce tension, such as establishment of bus link between Muzaffarabad and Srinagar, greater intra-Kashmir contacts, APHC meetings and now the broad agreement on the thorny issue of Siachen.

Even at the sub-regional level, this significant improvement in bilateral ties has led India to sign a multi-billion dollar three-nation gas pipeline accord with Pakistan and Iran. Previously, India had deep reservations about supply of Iranian gas through Pakistan, and had asked Iran to consider the sea route as an alternative. This was both expensive and time-consuming. The mistrust has disappeared and all sides are now interested in the early implementation of this mutually beneficial project.

The path to peace process is indeed a long and thorny one, and any sudden escalation of terrorist activities along the LOC may jeopardise the whole process. However, both sides are trying to make the process irreversible so that the cost of cooperation could outweigh the cost of confrontation. They have also bent backwards to accommodate each other's compulsions.

Nevertheless, the flexibility and pragmatism demonstrated by President Musharraf is remarkable. The hard-line position that he had taken at the ill-fated Agra Summit a little over three years ago has disappeared.Ê Since the 9/11 attacks in US, Pakistan had been under pressure from Washington to curb terrorist activities in Kashmir and resume negotiations with India. Kashmir is a highly sensitive domestic issue in Pakistan and it was indeed a difficult task to readjust their policy, and he has so far handled the situation well. Musharraf understands that without frequent summit level contacts the peace process, particularly the composite dialogue, would get bogged down at the official and ministerial level meetings. Hence he goes out of his way to meet the Indian leadership to keep up the momentum. Manmohan Singh's government has been very responsive to his overtures.

It is necessary to point out that, despite current progress in talks, there are serious compulsions on both sides on the core issue of Kashmir. Pakistan cannot officially accept the existing LOC as the international boundary, and India will not be able to make any major concession on the issue. So what both sides are currently trying to achieve is to demilitarise the region, promote greater intra-Kashmir contacts, and to restore normalcy in the troubled region. It is expected that, once normalcy is restored and normal economic activities are resumed, the benefit of peace itself will be the best safeguard against terrorist activities. It is a delicate and hazardous path, and all sides have to exercise utmost caution and restraint.

How does this improved India-Pakistan tie impact the South Asian region? Well, relations between these two Asian nuclear powers have a direct bearing on peace,

security, and development of the region. Their past hostilities had made the region the "most dangerous flash point" in the world, and had profound negative impact on the entire region, which is one of the poorest in the world. Despite recent GDP growth, 43 per cent of South Asians still live below the poverty line. In the global context, South Asia lags behind other regions of the world in terms of income and human development index. The recent UN Development Report has once again put the South Asian countries at the bottom rung of the table.

The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) was launched two decades ago to hasten the process of development and to alleviate poverty in this densely populated area through regional cooperation. Unfortunately, mainly due to hostilities between India and Pakistan, Saarc has largely failed to achieve its mandated tasks. Now that the wind of change is blowing, there are reasons for optimism. It is expected that the next summit would be able to take concrete action in the areas of poverty alleviation and launching of the South Asian Free Trade Area (Safta). Saarc has adopted a series of declarations in the past. It is high time to work for their implementation.

Syed Muazzem Ali is a former Foreign Secretary of Bangladesh.