The politics of election promises

The past few days have seen the prime minister clarifying key points about the manner in which our country is being run. Addressing the nation on the fourth anniversary of assuming power, she tried a bit of soul-searching instead of blaming all the ills of governance on the Awami League and others in the opposition. She regretted the failure of the administration and intelligence agencies in being able to detect and foil the series of militant bombings and observed that this had tarnished the nation's image and had also affected peace and security in public life. It was also admitted that there had been little success in anti-graft measures. So far so good.

It appears that the proverbial penny is finally beginning to drop. It is quite possible that the government realises during its last year in office, that the ultimate ruler in our democracy is not the prime minister, the Member of Parliament of the ruling party or the sycophantic government official -- it is the voter on the street.

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Reacting to the prime minister, the leader of the opposition remarked that the prime minister's speech was 'nothing but a bid to bluff people and to hide the government's failure to ensure security and eliminate terrorism and corruption.'

Many followers of the ruling party might have thought that admitting some failures and not blaming the opposition elements directly would be sufficient compensation. They appear to have made the mistake that there can be equivalence in grudgingly accepting some blame and in being unable to maintain law and order or in punishing those involved in grenade attacks and assassinations.

The government has claimed success with regard to improving tax management, reforming the banking structure, simplifying the budgeting process and in revenue collection. It has however not been a bed of roses in other areas associated with fiscal governance. I shall now touch on a few.

The fight against poverty and meeting the MDG goals appear to have been less than successful. A survey carried out by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics has revealed an increasing disparity between the rich and the poor. In the five years between 1999 and 2004, the income of the people above the poverty line has increased by 13.36 percent while the poor have suffered a 3.56 percent decline in income. In rural areas, the decline was sharper -- by 7.32 percent.

Another area of concern has been the failure of the present government to contain inflation. It was 1.66 percent in June 2001 but has risen steadily over the last four years -- to 5.03 percent in 2003, 5.64 percent in 2004 and 7.35 percent in 2005. Economists are now predicting that it might cross 8 percent by the end of this year. Runaway prices are already creating serious hardship for the poor and the vast lower middle class. It is also assisting in the growth of corruption.

We are also not doing that well in terms of macro-economic stability. The World Economic Forum's Growth Competitiveness Index (GCI) which includes this factor and also acknowledges the importance of technology and innovation has ranked Bangladesh 110 in 2005 out of 117 countries. This is eight places below the country's ranking in 2004. On the other hand, both India and Pakistan have improved their positions.

Donors and investors have also been particularly wary about Bangladesh continuing to head the list in corruption. Senior ministers of the government might have pledged the curbing of corruption but initiating projects based on political considerations continue to damage truly real development initiatives. This has impacted on foreign aid flow, particularly in its disbursement. The disease of corruption has become more entrenched over the last four years. It has become more pervasive and now affects both the private and the public sectors.

An Anti Corruption Commission was established a year ago, but its ineffectiveness has been demonstrated during this period. Lack of fiscal independence and politicisation has seriously hobbled the structure. The budgetary provision of whitening ill-gotten money in all the past four budgets has similarly undermined honest business and genuine taxpayers. This has been particularly disappointing because this alliance government includes serious Islamic political parties and should not have shown 'moral weakness.'

The Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs minister, consistent with the government's new policy of admitting failures, has also regretted that separation of the judiciary had not taken place from the executive as had been promised and also that the Human Rights Commission has not yet been constituted. With great optimism he has suggested that these two significant steps can be completed over the next year. It is difficult to see how this is going to happen. The Supreme Court has directed the government to frame four different regulations -- Bangladesh Judicial Service Commission Regulations, Judicial Service (Pay Commission) Regulations, Judicial Service (Service Conditions) Regulation and Judicial Service (formation of service, appointment in the service, suspension and removal from the service) Regulations.

Of these, only one Regulation -- Bangladesh Judicial Service Commission -- was formulated in 2004. Its associated administrative process has started to function but only at the most minimum level. There are many other factors that have to be given consideration -- amendment of the Code of Criminal Procedure as well as the amendment of a procedural law which controls the criminal judiciary system. It is difficult to believe that the other areas of regulatory arrangement will be completed within a year. The same degree of tardiness has been apparent with regard to the formation of the Human Rights Commission. The Cabinet Committee formed to examine the draft law pertaining to this commission has not addressed this matter with the degree of seriousness that it deserves.

The current administration, quite justifiably, has also come under criticism from politicising the bureaucracy, the judiciary and for undertaking efforts towards election engineering. On several occasions I have pointed out that these are retrogressive measures. The only loser will be the people of Bangladesh.

The last four years have also highlighted the ineffectiveness of the parliament, created by mishandling of the parliamentary process both within the Jatiyo Sangsad as well as in different Parliamentary Committees. This has eventually persuaded the parliamentarians from the opposition to boycott this important state institution. Such a step has not necessarily been the best measure, but they do not appear to have been left with any other alternative.

In addition, in spite of earlier pledges to strengthen and decentralise local administration, controversy has been introduced through alleged widespread vote rigging and violence in local government elections. A case in point was the 2002 Sandweep municipal election which turned into a farce and an example of absence of people's participation due to intimidation.

Bangladesh today is at the crossroads of its existence. Four years on, despite many election pledges, the spirit of politicisation, partiality, vested interests, lack of transparency and accountability have coalesced to create serious mis-governance. The government has to understand that the days of pursuing partisan politics should be over. The wolf is knocking on our door. We have Islamic militants like the Harkatul Jihad and the Jamaatul Mujaheedin threatening to blow up key national institutions. We also have unhappy tribal activists ready to destabilise the situation in the Hill Districts.

The only way to move forward is to approach the current situation on a bi-partisan basis. The first step should be to seriously re-examine the alliance structure -- after all a party is known by the company it keeps. The next step should be careful evaluation of the points already raised by the opposition with regard to the future election process and the caretaker system. The prime minister has shown that she can admit failures in her administration. It has been a step in the right direction. Let her now be brave enough to initiate a process where concerns of the opposition can be resolved in a responsible manner. The prime minister owes it to the nation, not as leader of a political alliance but as an elected individual Member of the Jatiyo Sangsad.

Muhammad Zamir is a former Secretary and Ambassador -- any response to mzamir@dhaka.net