A quiet 2006?

In January, the opposition MPs will scramble to save their seats to avoid inevitable by-elections in those same seats. The Jamatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) bombers will scarper and try and reorganise. For strategic reasons, they would be smart to take a year out and defuse the Islamic issue till the time they are really ready. I doubt they will. The opposition will try and seize the initiative in February with some colourful, enormous rallies and another "march on Dhaka." February is normally dominated by the homage to the martyrs of Ekushey in 1952. This year, given everything is politically charged; expect to see a fearsome assault on the role of Jamaat in 1971. This will continue into March as we celebrate Independence Day on March 26. The BNP will struggle to keep Jamaat within the fold, while at the same time promoting its own nationalist credentials.

If they do, the main Jatiyo Party is on course to join forces with BNP in a powerful (some say unbeatable) alliance. This will be the critical event. If Jamaat can hang on in there in an enlarged alliance, then the nationalist-Islamist grouping becomes a formidable machine.

Tap here to add The Daily Star as a trusted source

The fly in the ointment might be Bikalpa Dhara. All indications suggest it will be looking with special interest, with its bag of goodies, if there are any "casualties." Jamaat and Jatiyo Party will demand around 70 to 80 seats each, hoping to negotiate the combined total down to around 100. That will leave an awful number of disappointed potential candidates of the BNP, especially among the Old Guard. Will they look for another ship?

I would be interested to hear how Bikalpa Dhara explains this unethical horse-trading. How exactly does it fit into that yet unexplained phenomenon of "New Politics"? Are they going to "root out corruption" with the same set of second-division BNP MPs? After over two years, is this all they have to show? Why is that so many new parties come and promise the earth and in the end leave us with old wine in new bottles?

In any case, it will not work. Independent or Third Party candidates rarely do well. An alliance with the Awami League and its 13 partners would raise similar problems in allocating seats. All this, however, could create chaos and over-reaction, which is exactly what some people seem to want.

By the time Pahela Baishakh or Bengali New Year comes around in April, will we have witnessed another horrific "incident"? Try as RAB might, some will escape the net and the consequences will be tragic. The heat will be on literally as temperatures soar.

Widespread water shortages and electricity blackouts will raise tempers. Protests might be more widespread given the political spin-offs for the opposition. The Energy Ministry will be frantically trying to get new expensive mobile power plants working in time.

Expect the Commerce and Finance Ministries to pull out all the stops and find some extra foreign exchange for massive imports of rice. The price of rice will have to plummet to restore their credibility in the rural constituencies. Having said that, there is every possibility of a looming foreign exchange crunch if things do not go smoothly. Watch out for lower remittance flows by then and keep an eye on the price of oil. Perhaps the Foreign Ministry could phone Washington and ask them to hold off invading Iran till 2007, until our elections are over. What are friends for?

By May, it should be obvious how/when/if meaningful elections will be held. The opposition will have formally announced its intention to boycott the polls (or miraculously stayed in the fray). Who knows what is going on down there? Either way, it will be wholly unprepared since it has done little or no mobilisation over the past two years.

The monsoon floods will disrupt everything. By then us urbanites will be too busy watching Brazil and Argentina in the World Cup finals, spread over June and July. All the authorities have to do is keep the power on while BTV refrain from interrupting live matches for the 8 pm propaganda. Surely they can wait for half time. Right to the death, licenses will be handed out and the Law Ministry will be overworked. Do you remember which licenses were signed up to the last day of the Awami League regime in 2001? Should we expect anything different now?

Monga will make a briefer appearance this year. Not that there will be any less hunger or more available jobs. The candidates will be too busy electioneering in their own constituencies. The $64,000 question will be how and when the handover takes place by the end of September.

Can anyone hazard a guess on whether the caretaker government will be able to hack it? With an opposition unwilling to play ball, a nasty polarisation between nationalism and secularism, and the dramatic arrival of underground "Political Islam," the next 31st night will feel like taking a leap into the unknown. We have to get there first. You say, elections. I say, maybe. If.

It will be a peaceful year somewhere. It will not be here.

Eid Mubarak.

Farid Bakth is a non-resident Bangladeshi.