Indo-Pak peace process: Yet to clear the fog of mistrust

Vajpayee's unconditional peace offer at Srinagar on April 18, 2002 came after his failed attempt to teach Pakistan a lesson. The peace overtures and military threats are nothing new from either side in the subcontinent. More often than not they traded the rhetoric which was not necessarily followed by real peace or outbreak of hostilities.

Mr. Vajpayee alone held out an olive branch at least thrice, starting from his famous bus-ride to Lahore, much hyped Agra summit, to yet another offer for what he called "compositi-dialogue" now. Pakistan's response was prompt and positive in grabbing the opportunity to restore the stalled dialogue between the two countries.

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In the past, any attempt for breakthrough in Indo-Pakistan relations proved illusory. But unlike in the past, the dialogue this time took off on an overly optimistic note, and its beginning was marked with celebratory mood bordering on euphoria on both sides. The snapped links were quickly restored. The new bus services were opened between Srinagar and Muzafferabad with people from both parts of Kashmir surging forward to meet their long-lost near and dear across the LoC. The government officials also have been making optimistic prediction of an early settlement.

Mr. Manmohan Singh affirmed that "Musharraf is a man [he] could do business with." Overwhelmed with the warmth he was shown at Delhi during his brief swing through India to watch a cricket match, Musharraf called the peace process "irreversible."

The developments during the last two years of peace process do not however warrant such optimistic outbursts, notwithstanding a flurry of diplomatic activity, and a fusillade of unilateral proposals by Pakistan, ostensibly to hasten a "magic" solution in Kashmir. Taking refuge in subterfuge, the Indians seem to be wanting in reciprocity, particularly the developments during the last two months have their telling effects on the peace process. There is fear that the two rivals may again revert back to the confrontational relationship that prevailed before the Islamabad entente two years back. Even in the past, going back to square one had been a familiar feature of Indo-Pakistan relations.

The open disputation erupted between India and Pakistan at the UN General Assembly session, followed by a rather bumpy meeting between President Musharraf and Prime Minister Singh in September in New York. Thereafter several developments that had taken place were not considered congenial for the smooth progress of the peace process.

In spite of his all favourable posturing, the Indian Prime Minister's policy towards Pakistan is marked by excessive caution. So much so that his earlier decisions and initiatives on Siachen and the proposals for a ceasefire and troops reduction in Kashmir seem to have been put on hold.

The failure of the talks on the Kihanganga dam have exposed the hollowness of the claim that all Indo-Pakistan disputes can be resolved through bilateral efforts. The Kishanganga dam issue is sixty years old and Indp-Pakistan negotiations to resolve the issue have so far failed.

The history of half a century of bilateral ties amply exhibits that India and Pakistan could not resolve their differences because of a persistent syndrome of mistrust. In the sidelines of the Saarc Summit at Dhaka, Pakistan Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz drew attention to the phenomenon. Interestingly Indian Prime Minister Manmohon Singh did not disagree. He rather emphasized the need to build up trust.

It was the lack of that trust which did not allow the quake diplomacy to take off even when Islamabad finally decided to accept the Indian proposal on making the LoC irrelevant for speedy relief operation. As a result, the chasm between New Delhi and Islamabad remains as wide today as it was before the killer earthquake struck Azad Kashmir and India-held Kashmir on October 8 last year.

In the present atmosphere of distrust and suspicion, it is doubtful that the quake diplomacy is any more workable for resolving the Kashmir imbroglio, following the foot steps of another set of two inveterate enemies, Greece and Turkey, which Jettisoned their centuries-old rivalry after 1999 earthquakes in those countries.

That the relationship has dipped to a new low between India and Pakistan is indicated by the way India ignored Pakistan. India seems to have deliberately omitted Pakistan from the guest list to watch its military exercise being conducted in Rathastan near Pakistan border. The omission is significant when several other countries including China are invited.

In the meantime, the old refrain of "cross-border terrorism" surfaced when the Indian Prime Minister told his Pakistani counterpart in Dhaka recently that India would consider demilitarization and redeployment in Kashmir only after cross-border infiltration came to a complete halt.

The peace process has so far been a matter of much ado about nothing. Indo-Pakistan relations have not moved forward as they should have, nether have they deteriorated. Any forward movement in the relations calls for overcoming of the psychological "trust-deficit" and concrete measures when the negotiations on Siachen and Sir Creek resume this month. These must be done before the momentum of the process dies down.

However, the problems on the Indian side cannot also be ignored. It is not for nothing that India observes so much of caution even on settled issues of Siachen as Sir Creek, where everything has been done except its implementation. But the Indian side jitters with its bitter experience of earlier peace efforts.

Still fresh in its memory is how the Lahore declaration of Vajpayee was responded to with Kargil war or the hijack drama was played with Pakistan's complicity to ensure release of terrorist leader Maolana Masud Azizur from Indian prison. India's accusing fingers still point to Pakistan for the blast in the Indian parliament.

Even now, the Indian Prime Minister points to certain "external linkages" in the recent Delhi bomb blast. Clearly, the Indian establishment without formally naming Pakistan was indicating that certain Pakistani elements were behind the Delhi blasts. The fog of such doubt will have to be cleared before the peace process can really move ahead and produce results.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.