Why BNP will be hard to defeat

A sport utility vehicle took me to the rural areas of Noakhali and Comilla. I stopped in numerous villages and talked to strangers and passers by. In Dhaka, I met retired secretaries of the government, some whom are columnists now. I met former ministers, current lawmakers, and one 14 party alliance leader. I dined with a few friends who are loan defaulters, yet succeeded in their business ventures. I met some newspaper editors at lunch and in their offices and still found time to present a seminar at the Bangladesh Bank. I returned with many hard to believe facts and perspectives I never had before.

I was told how powerful a person you are is measured by the size of your defaulted bank loans and black money. How powerful a minister you are is measured by your loyalty to "Her Majesty's" service. Many people think that Khaleda Zia, who was picked after her husband's assassination to resuscitate the dying BNP, has successfully established an empire (with sister a cabinet minister, brother a sitting MP, son in the forefront of BNP leadership who reportedly cashes millions by simply saying hello to a phone call) now being designed to be ruled by her family members long after her retirement.

Tap here to add The Daily Star as a trusted source

While BNP's organizational structure is grounded at the village level, AL is pre-occupied with its antique philosophy of bringing down elected government by street agitations. Mr. Jalil with his repeated deadlines of bringing down the ruling alliance and Hasina's numerous nonsensical statements have done irreparable damage to AL's image, which only parallels Law Minister Mr. Moudud's obliteration of the country's previously well respected and largely independent judiciary.

People across all walks of life believe that AL is becoming a party of antiquity with the aging faces and thoughtless strategies of Jalil, Razzaque, Tofail, and Hasina (JRTH). When I told my cousin, a leader of the 14 party alliance, that the Finance Minister's assertion of AL not winning more than 38 seats in the general election was a "no nonsense" prediction, he appeared unsettled as if hit by a bolt from the blue. He said the JRTH are riding high with the chimera of returning to power. When I scoffed at his statement, he explained that rising prices and increasing fundamentalist violence would turn voters away from the BNP alliance.

Many believe that Khaleda is smarter and more knowledgeable than she gets credit for. She denigrates her opponents and often treats them ruthlessly. Her recent attempt to cow them down with threats of sedition charges is what an autocrat often resorts to. My cousin in the 14 party alliance apprised me that during Khaleda's first term, BNP was essentially free from any retaliatory posture. After AL came to power, its political functionaries started scratching BNP people. Now BNP is paying the AL back in spades.

In politics and governance loyalty of one's followers often guarantees successful outcomes. When talking about loyalty, I find it interesting to underscore three cases among others.

Education Minister Osman Farouk's father Dr. Osman Ghani, one of the most powerful Vice-Chancellors of Dhaka University ever, was blindly loyal to infamous Governor Monayem Khan. That period may be marked as the most repressive times during which the seeds of independent Bangladesh was sown. With a Ph.D in agricultural economics, he is ill qualified to be an education minister. No wonder his attempt to introduce the unitary system for SSC was aborted, and the country has seen the alarming growth of madrasas and the spread of deceptive education in these institutions. His greatest virtue is his unflinching loyalty -- like that of his father.

Finance Minister Saifur Rahman has proved time and again to his bosses that he is the man to be trusted, even though his budget has been scrapped 11 times once it reached the PMO. Political expediencies take precedence over economic realities under his nose. An accountant by profession, academically untrained to be a country's finance minister, he has occupied the most important ministry only because of his unwavering loyalty to "Her Majesty's" service.

Mr. Moudud Ahmed, many call him the wonder boy, is notoriously the most loyal individual to all the masters he has served. He proved time and again that you can count on his undaunted loyalty as long as you can hold on to power as the chief executive of the state. One retired Secretary told me that Moudud Ahmed will be infamously remembered as the person who obliterated the judiciary of the country simply to prove his loyalty to "Her Majesty's" service.

Under Khaleda's directives, BNP is now in the process of recruiting 40 or more young and wealthy individuals for nominations for the MP elections. This move, many observers perceive, is to create a cadre of loyalists who, in the near future, will bow down to her son's accession to the position of chief executive. It will be interesting to see if the country will tolerate another half-educated person in that position of power. My concern is: if that is the design, then why not send him somewhere to get some real education rather than have him watch his father's video tapes and imitate his demeanour and style in public speaking and posture.

The upshot of all these is to alert JRTH that the opponent is formidable; do not hibernate in illusion of victory simply because of rising prices of daily essentials and the rise of religious extremism.

Being realistic, a dispassionate analysis of events and issues favour BNP to win the next general election with a large majority. The reasons are:

• Incumbency is a powerful condition very hard to pass up.
• BNP's grass root organizational structure and recruiting efforts to enlist new people in lower level leadership positions.
• Availability of nearly inexhaustible election funds and the ability to raise more;
• BNP's success in restoring law and order. Voters still remember AL's misrule when they were in power.
• AL's strong criticism of Rab cross-fire has infuriated many voters. People think that once AL comes to power, Rab will be disbanded, and disorder will become a way of life again.
• BNP politicians, like the US Republican Party, will exploit terrorism in their favour by fear mongering, and claiming that BNP is the party strong in law and order to combat this menace.
• BNP politicians have been painting AL as the party resorting to rabble-rousing and is already threatened to bring charges of seditions.
• BNP has more academically qualified, financially resourceful, and politically shrewd people in the party than AL.
• The recent recruits of BNP cadres as election officers will make sure that BNP win the election to keep their jobs secure.

A former Barisal city municipality chairman (AL member) whom I met on the boat on my return trip to Dhaka told me that while BNP is busy recruiting financially strong political neophytes, AL leadership is preparing to move with their next street agitations. If AL loses the election as badly as the prediction goes, in all likelihood, it will be the end of AL's existence as a political power to stand up against BNP.

The author is Professor of Economics, Eastern Michigan University.