Nepal scenario: Crises deepening

The political instability is stalking the nation eversince King Gyanendra seized all powers by dismissing the elected prime minister Sher Bahadur Dueba nearly a year ago. Nepal, an effective monarchy for many years, introduced Westminster type parliamentary democracy in 1990 when late King Birendra vowed to pro-democracy movement without much effort to cling to power. Major political forces like the Nepali Congress, the Communist Party(Marxist-Leninist) and others swapped powers as new-find democracy was struggling to establish firm roots while some leading politicians at the helm to rule in a way weakened the process by resorting to corruption and mismanaging the affairs. This situation notwithstanding, the pattern of representative governance was progressing through trials and experiments, but a

palace massacre that eliminated the king and the mainstream royal family including the queen and the crown prince drastically changed the scene. The developments brought King Birendra's younger brother Gyanendra to the throne and Nepal has since been slowly slipping back to effective monarchy.

Tap here to add The Daily Star as a trusted source

The last nail in the coffin was hammered when prime minister Deuba was sacked with his cabinet on February 1,last year, and the King emerged as the absolute ruler. He blamed the elected government of failure to make any progress on the vexed problem of Maoist insurgency and also listed failure of the political parties to perform their task as was expected by the people. Former prime ministers ageing Girija Prasad Koirala and Sher Bahadur Deuba, former deputy prime minister and Communist party leader Madhav Kumar Nepal and others did not take the development kindly. Political parties protested and had been demonstrating against the state of emergency that the King had imposed and other anti-democratic measures including steps against the free press. The state of emergency was later called off, but little progress has been made towards restoration of elected government. The King announced municipal polls for early, this year, and parliamentary elections in 2007.

The politicians are hardly content with these plans of the monarch and are clamouring for early polls. So far, they have not been much able to cause major headache to the monarch and were unable to organise any massive anti-government show. However, a few days ago, more than a lakh people assembled at an opposition rally outside the capital and this seems to have come as a shot in the arms for the political parties. They planned another programme in capital Kathmandu on the last Friday and the authorities went all out against the gathering. This brings two sides on a bigger collision course and political unrest appears as order of the day. The politicians are making unremitting efforts to bring their nation back to democratic track as early as possible. However, the King seems still firm in the saddle.

The Maoist insurgency has grown in intensity since 1996 and even the elected government could not make much headway in settling issues. The ultras control a large part of the rural areas in the far flung countryside ,but could not make any big impact in the urban areas barring occasional incidents. Their main demand includes dismantling of the monarchy in every form and turn Nepal into a Republic. Many people have been attracted by their slogans in the poverty-ridden country, but many including the political parties are also disenchanted because of their destructive activities. However, the common anti-King policies have brought ultras and politicians on a broad understanding even though their differences remain as such to a large extent. Maoists' elusive leader "Prachanda" late last year announced an unilateral truce for what he said to help the government find a solution to the insurgency but scrapped it a few weeks ago, accusing the government of taking no initiative to break the impasse.

Clashes between the two sides are now back although no major skirmishes has taken place since the withdrawal of the ceasefire. The government has blamed the ultras as destructive force and maintains that things are very much under control. But fact remains that hostilities may now once again assume bigger proportions.

The politicians are also seeking international support for restoration of democracy in Nepal and they recently visited India, the big neighbour, and met both ruling and opposition leaders. But the King appears to be keen to see that his writ runs even though he says that the country will get back democracy in appropriate time. This has led the two sides move somewhat inexorably towards a confrontation that is visible now. While the resolution of the Maoist problem is evidently a difficult one, the same is not the case obviously with the political unrest since an early general election is key to the settlement. Political parties feel that the monarch is seeking to lengthen his rule as far as possible.

Exacerbation of the twin crises is certain to create bigger problems for the country and this is least desired. The bitter truth is that situation is clearly deteriorating which Nepal can really ill afford. Some positive developments bring some hope for must the lovely country in the coming days.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is Foreign Editor of BSS.