Bush's visit to Pakistan: Disappointments galore

First, Islamabad visualised that unlike President Clinton in 2000, who for the first time, in more than fifty years, 'tilted' US South Asian policy towards India and perceived delinking US-India and US-Pakistan relations from those of India and Pakistan, and whose policy towards Pakistan was only to remain engaged with the country, Bush was visiting the country in a changed international environment. It feels it has now enormous strategic value to US following the watershed event of 9/11, an evidenced by US recognition of Pakistan as a non-NATO ally (which is a reminiscent of its special relationship with Washington as its 'most trusted ally in Asia' during the cold war). It takes pride that it was prompt in coming forward in joining US War on Terror and now its critical partner and feels without its active and total support Operation Enduring Freedom would have faced enormous difficulties (not that Pakistan had much options but to join the US after Bush's infamous 'either you are with us or against us' doctrine propagated in the UN). Nonetheless, truth is, the Pakistani establishment, whether military or the civilian, has always remained a staunch ally of the United States over the past fifty years or so.

Second, there is an understanding in Islamabad that Musharraff government is doing its best in tackling the terrorists -- first, with regard to cross-border terrorism in Kashmir by declaring in 2002 that it would not export jihad in the name of Kashmir, and banning notorious jihadi groups like Lashkari-i-Toyba and Jaish-i-Mohammed, and second, in dealing with al-Qaeda and Taliban militants who have taken shelter along Afghan-Pakistan border. It has already handed over as many as 700 al-Qaeda operatives into US custody, employed 70,000 Pakistani troops along the tribal belt in Afghan-Pakistan border and launched numerous attacks against the militants that has cost Pakistan nearly 230 officers and men.

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Third, it takes credit that, in order to strike at the roots of extremism, the government has undertaken Madrassa Reforms Programme (MRP) to modernize the religious seminaries, which by itself is not an easy task. Moreover, Musharraf feels that he has kept his words with his US friends by introducing democratic order in the country in phases by holding national and local level elections. All these along with Islamabad's cooperation in resolving Kashmir issue and preventing proliferation of nuclear weapons and technology, according to Pakistan, were much to suffice US admiration and expectations have been that President Bush would visit Pakistan with multifarious agenda commiserating with those of Islamabad, especially it counted on US support in its endeavour to reach an honourable agreement with India and US tacit acceptance of its nuclear capability.

However, Bush's visit has been nothing near what was expected. He came to Pakistan with only one agenda in his mind i.e. to assess and evaluate Islamabad's endeavour to control or put a damper on Islamic groups, especially the al-Qaeda and Taliban militants who have organised and regrouped and are allegedly operating from their bases in Pakistan into Afghanistan. This is due to the fact although US Administration has been praising Pakistan for its help in the US-led War on Terror there are reports by counter-terrorism experts that Musharraf has not done enough to clamp down on militant organizations and allege that his government may have been soft on the Talibans as a strategic option in case Afghanistan dissolves into chaos once US-led coalition forces leave the country. And now, increasingly it is being suspected that the suicide bombers are being trained in the militants' training camps in Pakistan and being sent to Afghanistan for attacks.

According to Afghan President Hamid Karzai, in last year alone, about 30 attacks were launched, which killed at least 100 people. About two dozens suicide attacks, during the last two months, have further reinforced the suspicion that al-Qaeda and Taliban militants may be using Pakistan as a base for launching terror attacks in Afghanistan. These developments must have raised alarms in Washington to an extent, that despite its claim that it has dealt with al-Qaeda and Taliban once for all during Operation Enduring Freedom, Bush made a surprise visit to Afghanistan and assured Afghan President, besides cheering up the nineteen thousand US troops stationed in the country, that he would raise the issue with Musharraf once he is in Pakistan.

With that agenda in mind Bush downplayed both Kashmir and the nuclear issues. He has not foreseen US becoming a catalyst in Kashmir solution, something Islamabad was hoping that he would emphasize, and expected that the issue would be resolved bilaterally. Similarly, Bush diplomatically turned down Islamabad's request for nuclear deal with US like the recently concluded deal with New Delhi. Both must have been shocking for Pakistani Administration. However, Bush did a favour to Musharraf (not to the people of Pakistan) by stopping short of criticizing him on the pace of democratic advances, only gently calling for the elections scheduled for next year to be "open and honest." The visit concluded with President Bush and President Pervez Musharraf recommitting their nations to the difficult task of hunting down terrorists still hiding in Pakistan and across the globe.

So in effect gain for Pakistan from Bush's visit has been no more than, as reported in the media, "a pat in the back." With no substantive support coming from the US the solution of Kashmir problem is not feasible in the near future although any positive development in this regard would have bolstered Musharraf not only domestically but also tackling the ticklish issue of the militants who would now continue to get support from large section of people in this context. As a matter fact President Musharraf may have to depend on them to some extent as long the thorny issue of Kashmir remains in the horizon. Most importantly, Musharraf has been grossly undermined at home and would be more unpopular with the masses for his failure to get substantive concessions from Bush. As it is America is disliked by the Pakistani elite and populace for its war in Iraq and Afghanistan as evidenced by the countrywide strikes and protests by the people during Bush's visit.

Now more than ever Musharraf would be looked upon more as America's hand picked man by the Pakistanis than their own, especially by those in the areas that have been designated by some analysts as Bin Laden's 'new friendship zone.' As a result, despite Musharraf's recommitment in US's War on Terror and recent drive by his government against the militants in the Frontier areas of Pakistan that has reportedly killed many militants, he will find it increasingly difficult to do away with them without people's support. No wonder it's disappointments galore in Islamabad following the visit paid by the US President.

Dilara Choudury is Professor, Govt and Politics, Jahangirnagar University.