Issue of issues: What happens to neo-con designs?

Trend of recent US pronouncements and its diplomatic thrust is aimed at popularizing hard action against Iran, the lesser of which should be mandatory UN sanctions, such as had weakened Iraq since the 1991 war. The menace in John Bolton's, US Permanent Representative, voice, the other day, was unmistakable. The Bush administration is as obsessed with Iran today as George W Bush was about Iraq in the early years of this supposed American Century, with dreams of a new Holy Roman Empire by the US this time.

These dreams are relevant. They have inspired the official US strategy of the right to use force preemptively and non-tolerance of any other nation surpassing the US in military or even economic power. Let no one make a mistake that it is a Republican Party program only. The other major party, the Democrats, have not disavowed it and also have no differing ideas or other world view. Therefore, the new Bush idea of starting wars that later governments will finish should be noted.

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Although there are admitted difficulties in the way of realizing the great dreams being dreamt by neo-conservative thinkers -- they are supposed to have been discredited, people are unwilling to suffer more American casualties and steps in this direction have not hitherto met with shining success -- the logic that drove Bush to go to Iraq would now seem to require subduing Iran before the US can reshape western Asia the way it would like. That design includes the unchallenged sway of Israel and the US over the whole region, more so as South Asia and Southeast Asia are largely in the American corner. Iran stands out as a sore thumb in the path of the US march towards its destined hyperpowerhood. Wouldn't Bush seek to remove it from the path of America's onward march?

But this is not to say there are no other difficulties. Iran's regime, for one, is inflexibly and more or less permanently against all that Israel seeks to do to help implement US designs. It is thus a strategic target that has to be removed -- a regime change has to be the objective. But the very attempt to change the Iranian regime, sure to require a big military operation, will result in Iran hurting the entire capitalist world by reducing its oil exports and by adopting a forward policy of supporting Shia insurgencies throughout West Asia that may be waiting to happen.

The Iraqi state's chances of survival rest on defeating the design of those who are provoking a Shia-Sunni sectarian war -- no matter who is stoking this fire, though it is necessary to investigate it. That will need cooperation of Iran and the Shia Iraqis as well as of many others. Flames from a recrudescence of ancient animosities will envelop many more countries in the Arab world, no matter who wins or loses. Many of the pro-western tyrants who rule Arab countries will face existential threats. That conflagration will burn down much of post First and Second World War structures and God knows what will emerge from the ashes.

Israel, no doubt, remains a sturdy yeoman in the service of US and it is no mean power. But its acceptance by a few Arab kings, presidents and dictators is not really shared by Arab masses. No doubt, the latter is still not a factor that can affect the Arab-Israeli conflict. The stark reality remains that the Palestinians remain at the mercy of triumphant Israelis and no Arab potentate will come to their aid. But the more the Israelis oppress the Palestinians and impose borders of their choice on Arabs, the discontent will grow, the more Iran will look like a beacon of light and strength to Arab masses.

Ahmadinejad's harsh anti-Israeli and anti-US rhetoric makes him a factor in the Arab-Israeli quarrel. Iran has not actively backed the Iraqi Shias on sectarian lines; it does not want to stoke sectarian fires. But the option remains. The US strategists will have to weigh the balance of advantages between taking out Iran's fledgling nuclear program to preserve Israel's supremacy in the region and seeking Iran's cooperation in preventing an all-embracing conflagration in the region.

Insofar as the Palestine question is concerned, the US is the biggest factor enabling Israel to go on imposing a military occupation nearly 40 years after the 1967 war. There is not much to distinguish between the Israelis and Americans, from an Arab point of view. There is no real hope for Palestinians. Israel has defeated all the Arabs. The latter has to suffer Israeli domination as best as it can. Earlier there were hopes that world opinion would act through the UN and provide some reprieve to enslaved Arabs. But the way the US has used the UN and dominated west Asia during the last 61 years, no other power is strong enough to provide succour to the Palestinians.

True, Israelis -- and Americans -- have still not got what they most want; only some Arab potentates have formally recognized Israel; but there is no real Arab "acceptance" of the Israelis. They are as far from their dreams as ever. Perhaps, Israel and the US hope that when their New Rome has established its sway over the whole globe, things will change. Possibly they will, possibly not. Apart from that uncertain factor, world opinion, new power-centres are growing and they will be, ipso facto, challenges to the hyperpower. The world can hardly remain in one configuration for even two or three decades, let alone for a thousand years.

Then, there are fascist and semi-fascist forces that are growing amidst spreading poverty and despair over large stretches in what is called third world. What shape the world will sport 15 years hence cannot be foretold. But it will be different for sure. Even in Europe the fascist fringe, properly so-called, is growing even as unemployment and immigration grow.

Talking of fascism, one should look around in southern Asia and notice the religio-fascist movements, parties and militias growing in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, India, and, of course, Pakistan. At least three great religions -- Islam, Hinduism and Buddhism -- are being exploited in quest of power by rousing the gullible and the simple. They can produce mayhem. India and Nepal also have secular Far Left militias that pose a different kind of challenge -- again in the context of extreme poverty, exploitation, oppression and hopelessness. Islamic extremism is growing in most Muslim countries.

There are other challenges for those who aspire to dominate, though not to govern, the world. New ones have arisen and some old ones may revive.

MB Naqvi is a leading columist in Pakistan.