Significance of the Chinese president's visit to the US

Hu is not like his predecessor Jiang Zemin who could easily relate to Westerners with his ability to quote from Western poets and leaders. Hu, on the other hand, is quite reserved, reticent, and a keen observer of everything, but he does not make jokes or quote from Western poets.

The significance of the visit to the US has been closely watched and evaluated by all nations, big and small. A leader of an existing superpower had a meeting with a leader of a future superpower. This is the equation between them in such a meet. The dynamics are known but what will unfold is unknown as it has not yet been worked out between them. That is the concern of other countries.

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Balance of power is an old game. It occurred in the 19th century in Europe; when Germany rose as a power, France and Britain cooperated to limit the power of Germany. They ousted Germany from overseas possessions in Africa and divided the continent among themselves, eastern part of the continent to British and western part to France. When Japan was emerging as a power in its own right, Russia saw that Japan did not make political waves in the region. They even fought with each other to hold possessions in China.

Against the background of historical precedents, it is no wonder that China's rise has created a concern and stir in the US because political supremacy is a zero-sum game. One rises, the other falls; that is the natural and historical phenomenon. Currently China is rising and therefore the US will eventually decline. There cannot be two lions in the same forest.

One a global super power, it is hard to relinquish that role, and the US has been placed in that position. It carefully watches challenges from countries, real or imaginary, to its global power. It is important for the US to keep the unprecedented military power and to retain its "world's policeman" role across the globe by resorting to unilateral right to use force pre-emptively, ignoring the UN and international law.

Charles Kupchan, of US Foreign Relations Institute, in his book The End of the American Era (2002) predicted the decline of supremacy of US in the following words:

"Combine the rise of Europe and Asia with a declining and prickly internationalism in the United States, and it becomes clear that America's unipolar moment is not long for this world. America's dominance and its political appetite for projecting its power globally have peaked and both will be dissipating over the course of coming decade."

Before he proceeded to Washington, Hu was the guest of honour of Bill Gates at Seattle. It is reported that Hu has lavishly praised Microsoft that has struggled to find a firm foothold in China.

Bill Gates saw this opportunity to harp on the Chinese president to halt the piracy of Microsoft software products in China, as a result of which his company has been losing millions of dollars. As a responsible member of the international community China knows the importance of protection of intellectual property rights and Hu reportedly assured Gates that his government would address the problem.

Although the relations between the US and China are calm and correct, they have yet to decide to which way they would go: coexistence or confrontation. The Bush administration considers China as a "strategic competitor" in the Asia Pacific region. It is reported that President Bush said prior to meeting the Chinese president that: "It is a very important visit. China is a very important strategic, you know, friend in many ways, and in many ways they pose competition to us."

Strategically, India and Japan are the countries that, according to the US, have the capability to counterweight China to keep the balance of power in US's favour and the US has been directing one of its planks of foreign policy to achieve the goal. The deal on nuclear fuel and technology with India by the US is a part of its strategy so as to provide India muscle to restrain China's power.

Having described the dynamics underpinning their relations, let us examine what are the major issues that are of concerns to them and to what extent they are being sorted out.

First, China has become a manufacturing giant and US imports have been rising. The Chinese products are cheap, work well, and provide profit to importers. They sell like hot cakes in the US among consumers. The products arrive at the scheduled time from China and are cost-effective, leaving the US products unsold. In 2005, the trade deficit for the US with China was estimated to be around $200 billion

As a result, US manufacturing industries cannot compete with those of China and are laying off workers. Unemployment among youth is a big concern for US politicians who are likely to contest the mid-Congressional election in November this year. They want President Bush to do something about it, otherwise they suggest that the US Congress may consider adopting a strict protectionist policies to keep Chinese products off the market.

Second, the Chinese currency (Yuan) is cheap and the US thinks it is undervalued 40%. The US wants action from China to raise the value of Yuan, so that there is a level playing field for both of the countries for competition. The US considers that China has been deliberately keeping its currency undervalued to enter into US markets and products are attractively priced for consumers.

US Treasury Secretary Snow have made noises about it but China remains quiet. Only action China did was to announce a basket of foreign currency in which trade may be conducted. As a result, Chinese Yuan has moved a little higher to the US dollar. This action does not satisfy the US administration because it is too little. There is a move that a bill may be adopted in the US to slap 27.5% tariff on Chinese imports to the US unless Beijing allow its currency to rise.

Third, there is a concern of human rights record of China. Not only Falun Gong devotees are punished, but also many breaches of human rights occur when Chinese citizens express their views against the government. The US believes that China, as a responsible player in the world affairs must address the human right record, in accordance with UN standards as reflected in numerous international human rights instruments.

Fourth, the prickly issue of Taiwan acts as a fracture between US-China relations. While the US acknowledges "one China" policy (no recognition to Taiwan as a state), it does not want China to grab the renegade province by force. Taiwan has turned out as a democratic country, and China, being a one-party state (Communist), the US naturally supports Taiwan in the power-game and is committed to provide sophisticated weapons to ward off any armed invasion. China does not approve it and considers interference in its internal matters by the US. It is noted that the US and China are aware that any armed conflict would irreparable damage to their economy as both have huge economic interests in each other's country.

Fifth, North Korea's nuclear program has been a political headache for the US. As a policy the US does not want nuclear proliferation globally, most importantly among the "axis of evil" countries, such as North Korea, Iran and Iraq. To halt nuclear program, China has the influence to do it with North Korea, partly because it shares borders with North Korea and partly because oil is being supplied by China to North Korea. Furthermore, China likes to have leverage with the US on the North Korean issue.

Finally, both the US and China are the largest consumers of oil. It is reported that from 1995 to 2004, US oil imports grew by 3.9 million barrels a day, while China's grew by 2.8 million barrels a day. By 2020, China will need reportedly 70% of US oil needs, compared with 40 per cent today.

It has been a concern for the US about Beijing's quest for energy supplies. Both compete with each other to explore and exploit oil from other countries. The Chinese politics of energy has an impact on oil diplomacy of the US. Saudi Arabia, despite its long-standing relationship with US oil companies, is turning to China and is today its largest oil supplier. China has struck a deal with oil-rich Venezuela for supply of oil that currently has developed strained relations with the US under the left-wing and populist President Hugo Chavez. In recent days China was able to conclude oil deals in such places as Russia, Gabon, Nigeria and Angola.

Given the above concerns, how the great political game of the 21st century is played out between the two powers is an issue that is being closely watched by other nations because all states, big or small, will be affected in one way or other. It is hoped that during the visit each side has been able to size up each other's strength and weaknesses and reconcile to co-exist peacefully for the benefit of people across the globe.

Barrister Harun ur Rashid is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.