Sri Lanka again on the brink of civil war?

This has come as a big setback to the efforts for a negotiated settlement of the civil war issue and consequently, the overall situation in Sri Lanka has much deteriorated raising the spectre of the return of full blown fighting even though mediators are making painstaking endeavour to salvage the critical situation.

The gravity of the situation can be gauged from the fact that several major incidents have taken place in the recent days highlighted by the air strikes on rebel strongholds in the north-east of the country and from the militants side, daring attempt on the life of the chief of country's army by a woman suicider that left ten troops killed, many injured including the army chief himself. All these mark toughening of the stance by both parties. Even as president Mahinda Rajapakse and the Tamil rebel supremo Villupai Prabhakaran are speaking about the need of peace, both make no secrets that the policy and attitude of the "other side" may force it to a full fledged war. The truce for last more than four years has become increasingly vulnerable.

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Two months ago in Geneva, two sides sat across the table and agreed to honour the cessation of hostilities. The much-awaited dialogue produced positive results in the given circumstances. The talks took place nearly after three years of last round of such dialogue and the Lankan situation had worsened considerably during the long interregnum. Such a deteriorating situation was salvaged by dogged mediatory efforts by Norway, which made a fresh dialogue possible at a time when it looked remote. The two-day February 22-23 talks might not have come out with anything very remarkable, but the outcome was a great relief both nationally and internationally. For, both sides agreed to honour ceasefire and vowed to maintain the atmosphere conducive for next round of dialogue in April. But the rebels called off the talks and said they would return to negotiations only after a conducive climate is restored. Not surprisingly, they have blamed the government for queering the pitch of talks. On the other hand, the government turned the table of accusation on the militants. The Geneva dialogue did not cover the nitty gritty complexities of the civil war and a possible settlement since two sides rightly devoted time on maintaining the truce that had appeared on the verge of a collapse. Indeed, salvaging this situation was not an easy task. Such contentious issues like the extent of powers in the autonomy for the rebels and a timeframe for a settlement as earlier demanded by Tamil militants did not figure prominently.

Discussions on these vexed issues would have in probability landed them in difficult situation at that stage. This realisation had dawned on both sides and substantive issues were to be taken up in the next round of talks. Now as the future talks are not in sight and violence is making bigger noise, the whole scenario has markedly changed.

The crisis was compounded after Mahinda Rajapakse won the presidency on a hardline stance on the Tamil issue compared to his main rival and former prime minister Ranil Wickramsinghe, who preferred dialogue rather than use of force in settling the conflict with the rebels. It was during Wickramsinghe's tenure as prime minister that the currently fragile truce was signed and several rounds of talks between the two sides took place outside the country. The dialogue made progress given the thorny nature.

The militants agreed to give up the demand of a separate independent Tamil state in preference to greater autonomy. The government side also gave several concessions. This infuriated president Chandrika Kumaratunga, political rival of Wickramsinghe, and finally she sacked his government climaxing their differences on attitude towards the Tamils.

The midterm elections for parliament brought Chandrika's Freedom Party and Peoples Alliance to power and hawkish Rajapakse was made the premier and the peace process suffered severe setbacks. As Rajapakse is at the helm as two terms of Chandrika is over, the government-rebel relations appears to touch the lowest ebb. However, he as the president of the nation also stressed on the need for peace and this approach along with a softer stance by the rebels made the talks possible while the Norwegian government played a painstaking role in persuading the warring sides for dialogue. But, with the unfortunate occurrence of violence and postponement of the talks, the entire matter seems to getting back to "square one".

Dangerous signs are becoming clear about the resumption of fighting with little respect to the truce by either side. Some international observers blamed more the government for the violations. Mediators are clearly dismayed and trying to contain the sharp slide. Two sides need to demonstrate patience and realism since the crisis warrants restraint, more for the reason that no side can decisively win as proved before. At least the ceasefire must be observed by both sides should they want any progress. Because, return to hostilities will lead to nowhere. The government and the militants must be mindful about this for the sake of their country and people. The window of opportunity created following the Geneva talks needs to be seized. Intransigence and hardening of the positions will certainly not bring any solution to their problem.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is Foreign Editor of BSS.