Is American influence slipping from its zenith?

There is an obvious convergence between Russia and China in the UN that is thwarting the American wishes vis-à-vis Iran. The Iranian crisis has resulted from two factors: re-organisation of Russia's economy, and strengthened hold of Iranian clergy. Helped by high oil prices, Iran has consciously built itself as a regional pre-eminent power and has acquired some capabilities to sustain the design. During the current crisis, Iran has showed off some of its new technological weapons, whether developed by itself or with the help of friends, that can sink some big war ships in the Gulf. Iranians are cocksure of their own capabilities because they are ignoring the direct American threats of bombing its nuclear installations with huge conventional or quasi nuclear bombs or even with nuclear weapons. This confidence of the Iranians can only be based on their ability to retaliate and inflict painful costs on the attackers.

What the Iranians can do to America include the disruption of oil trade, probably by blocking the Straits of Hormuz. They may be able to sink a few American warships by their new smart munitions. They can also attack Israel directly. The political mischief that Iran can play in Iraq and the rest of Middle East is only too well known to the Americans and everyone else. What Iran can do is a formidable list of possibilities that America has to fear, including a recession in the world economy by oil prices crashing through $100 a barrel barrier; European and Japanese economies can be seriously damaged thereby.

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But Iran's power is by no means comparable to America's. The US cannot be defeated militarily by any other power through direct battles. But new power centres have however emerged that are now beginning to challenge its influence. That influence was based on America being number one in both military and economic spheres. Economy today is America's weakest wicket. All their economic fundamentals make America vulnerable to all manners of difficulties. Militarily, of course its $500 billion budget ensures that it is likely to remain number one indefinitely. But technological breakthroughs elsewhere have created small pockets of vulnerabilities for the American influence, to be sure.

As we look around, there are the obvious emerging power centres of Russia and China. Earlier, the other power centres were (a) Japan that still remains under the umbrella of America's strategic partnership while the US has integrated it into what amounts to a military alliance with South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand. The US remains a formidable force in the Pacific and confronts Asia with a wall of steel and fire. But then, Russia and China are now new and un-ignorable power centres. Russia always had the wherewithal of re-organising itself. The bonanza of high oil prices has enabled Russia to re-order its otherwise chaotic economy and it is now flexing its diplomatic and political muscles. Even so widely different kinds of Russians such as Alexander Solzhenitsyn and Mikhael Gorbachev have said that the Americans are trying to encircle Russia and a new cold war has begun between Russia and the US.

Chinese diplomacy is far more supple. China is a powerhouse economically and its military might is also growing. It has been growing at over 9 per cent for nearly two decades. It has captured many markets through the export of its manufactured goods. It earns $ 200 billion of surplus from the American market alone, while Americans cannot but continue to invest in China because it remains an open and attractive market for foreign capital. Therefore there is a limit to what the American displeasure can do. The Chinese, on the other hand, have one of the largest stakes in America's foreign debt after Japan, if they have not overtaken it. Should the Chinese withdraw their dollars, the dollar will simply sink into nothingness. True, the Chinese will also lose all their deposits with the Federal Reserve System. These constitute mutual limits on what either can do.

The bottomline is neither of the two dares to become an open political enemy of the other. The stakes are mutual. That however permits China to become strategic partner of Russia, corner some of Russian energy supplies and create a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) with the easily ascertainable purpose of whittling down the American influence from former Russian zone of influence in Central Asian Republics. As of now, the SCO is a factor that has to be taken into account which probably has led to the US-India military and political link up.

Politically speaking, Americans are unpopular amongst all Muslim and Arab countries, not excluding Turkey, Indonesia, Pakistan, Egypt, Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia. This unpopularity is shared by ruling circles as well as common people. The Americans are hated in all Arab lands at the popular level. The mass demonstrations that the Europeans have organised against American designs at different times tell a definitive story of mental separation. World public opinion cannot be accused of being pro-American; it is quite critical of American actions and designs. In addition, there is an anti-war sentiment growing at home. It is true that it is centred on Iraq and to a smaller extent Afghanistan and rest of the Middle East. But nevertheless it is a significant indicator of unrest in the home country.

As if to add to Americans' difficulties, the American hold over Latin America is rapidly eroding. Today to say that South America is America's backyard would invite opposition from all Latinos. As one writes, Bolivia has just nationalised British and American oil and gas companies operating in the country. Bolivia's President Evo Morales is going the way of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez. Americans had proposed a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). There have been three major absentees from the FTAA: These are Cuba, Venezuela and Bolivia. These three have united under what they call Bolivian Alternative for Americas (ELBA). That was initially promoted by Castro and Chavez in an attempt to thwart US plans for FTAA. The Americans have to perform a lot of salvaging operations at home and closer to home in Latin America. The kind of confidence with which Neo-Conservatives had inaugurated their programme for the new American Century is now virtually in shreds.

This should not be construed to mean that Americans are finished and their wishes and designs do not matter. They will remain an important factor for a long time, sometime decisive. Only their pre-eminence will diminish; opposition to their designs will grow. Since the Americans know the art of spending their dollars judiciously, they can still call most of the shots in many developing countries. After all, their military strength will continue to be an important factor, even if popular notions of American prestige and influence will continue to be seen as declining.

MB Naqvi is a leading columist in Pakistan.