The "second" cold war

With the delicate balance of power between the Superpowers gone, the right of pre-emptive strike (John Locke's "Second Treatise") became the new buzzword in the US lexicon. The modern version of "gunboat diplomacy" states "you are either with us or against us,” the US using the threat of force (and force itself) to impose its will. For Afghanistan and (later for) Iraq the US patched together a coalition, though not on the scale they had for Gulf War-I. Even though NATO has assumed responsibility in Afghanistan, France and Germany have balked at anything to do in Iraq other than training, and that also not within but outside Iraq.

In the aftermath of the break-up of the Soviet Union, Russia faced a number of problems within the homeland, most prominently in Chechnya where a full-blown revolution threatened to go out of control and engulf neighboring Provinces in the Caucuses, Ingushetia, Dagestan. For Russia 9/11 was God-sent, from strongly condemning Russia's brutal suppression of Chechnyans, the US made a U-turn on human rights and declared the Chechnyan movement as "terrorist," a clear signal for Russia to go all out to stamp out the revolt. This Russians seem to have temporarily achieved. With revenues from vast oil and gas reserves kicking in, and with oil prices at an all-time high, Russia chose to flex its economic muscle to bring Ukraine to heel, unilaterally raising the price of gas many times over, and then showing Ukraine's vulnerability (and dependence on Russia) by suspending gas supplies during the height of winter. The action was more political than economic.

Tap here to add The Daily Star as a trusted source

After an elongated neglect and upheaval after the disasters of the Afghan War and the first Chechnyan campaign, the Russian military has seemingly recovered the operational efficiency that it once used to have. A leaner, volunteer core is giving Russia the military muscle it once had as the vaunted Soviet Union. Russia's nuclear arsenal remains very much a potent force, one that may not be superior to the US but as an adequate nuclear deterrent, far exceeding that of China.

Even without the necessary UN resolution authorizing the use of force, the US chose to ignore the qualms of Russia, China and even its own allies France, Germany in going after suspected "Weapons of Mass Destruction" (WMDs) in March 2003. After a blitzkrieg "shock and awe" campaign that took Iraq by storm in record time, US President Bush proclaimed, "mission over" in May 2003. Three years later the US is still badly bogged down in a ground war in Iraq in "woe and sustained shock," and without an exit strategy. To add to the Iraqi quagmire, the Taliban have shown signs of resurgence in Afghanistan, controlling large tracts in the Pakhtun-provinces. While NATO forces are gradually assuming greater responsibilities, it is still to be seen what is the pain-threshold of NATO forces, what casualties they can bear before it becomes politically too hot for them to handle.

While Iran has categorically stated that it is not developing nuclear weapons, the type of uranium being enriched cannot be used as fuel for nuclear reactors, and as such there is a grave international suspicion about its nuclear aims and objectives. By enriching "weapons-grade" uranium Iran is in technical violation of the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) that it has signed. Iran President Ahmedinejad has not helped by making statements about "wiping Israel from the face of this Earth." Measuring the Iranian President's statement for "casus belli," the danger is that Israel will convince itself that their existence is threatened and unilaterally go in for a pre-emptive strike, forcing the US hand into a simultaneous surgical operation to ensure all of Iran's nuclear sites are taken out at one go. On the other hand, Iran is in backdoor diplomacy, facilitated mainly by Russia, to find some solution for the nuclear impasse. A few days ago the Iranian President wrote a letter to US President Bush, the first high-level contact in 27 years. While the content, tone and tenor of the missive remains unclear, the White House reaction has been dismissive about the Iranian initiative.

Both Russia and China have recovered from the economic albatross of a socialist economy; in both cases there is a reasonable public sector-private sector mix. In Russia's case it's coffers are rapidly multiplying because of vast amounts of oil and gas reserves, China has major trade surplus with the US and EU countries, enough for it to search for sizeable investment opportunities abroad, particularly in oil and gas to shore up its energy demands in the future. Less than 30 days ago, it seemed that Russia and China would have to fall in line with the US in sanctioning Iran. However 30 days is now a lot of time in modern geo-politics.

A very confident Russia is increasingly consulting with China to get a comprehensive dialogue with Iran going. While Russia does not have the same compulsions it did a few years ago about toeing the US line, China's policies are force-multiplied by its energy needs and it would be extremely reluctant to take any step that jeopardizes its crucial long-term energy supplies from Iran. Russia and China have confirmed in the UN they would oppose the draft American-backed anti-Iran Resolution being tabled, particularly the reference to Chapter 7 which authorizes military action if sanctions by economic means fail. A stage is therefore set where Russia and China will not support a UN Resolution unless it has been watered down to ensure that military action does not automatically follow non-compliance by Iran.

Presently on a whistle-stop tour of former Warsaw Pact countries, encouraging those who have not joined already to join NATO, US Vice President Dick Cheney on May 4, 2006 made a frontal assault on Russia on freedom and human rights violation, Russia reacted strongly to Dick Cheney's remarks. On Russia's doorsteps this amounts to a grave provocation. Earlier the US had voiced its frustration on Russia's ties with Iran, exhorting Russia not to go ahead with TOR tactical surface-to-air missiles sales to Iran and take a tougher line on Tehran's nuclear plans. During the "first" cold war, the US (and the west) exercised great advantage with the socialist economies were no match for the free economies, this time around a public-private sector mix and the presence of oil and gas in abundance in Russia should make the East-West confrontation evenly balanced and thus, much more interesting. Since "every journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step," the tough Russian reaction may be in fact the first shot in the "second" cold war, the first major confrontation of the 21st century.

Ikram Sehgal, a former Major of Pakistan Army, is a political analyst and columnist.