Left resurgent in Indian state assembly elections

Four key states -- West Bengal, Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and small Pondicherry went to polls, outcome of which was a matter of great interest and curiosity not only in India, but outside as well because of manifold reasons. The voting was seen as a test of the popularity of the major national and also the regional parties which generally call shots in their respective states. West Bengal saw the dominance of the leftists soaring further and their coming back to power in the Kerala after five years while Tamil Nadu dethroned charismatic Jayaram Jayalalitha, Assam gave a fractured verdict with the ruling Congress capturing most seats, but failing to win an absolute majority and the Congress retaining power in the Pondicherry.

Clearly, the leftists are the major beneficiary of these polls while the Congress headed by Sonia Gandhi has mixed fortunes. It lost power in Kerala along with its allies and fared badly in West Bengal, where, however, it is no more a force to reckon with and finished a distant third provoking state party chief federal defence minister Pranab Mukherjee to quit the party post taking the responsibility of poor showing. But the Congress has enough reasons to rejoice as it is a key ally of the DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu that won the polls and it maintained its strong grip in Pondicherry. Additionally, party chief Sonia Gandhi was re-elected in a federal parliament(Lokshaba) by-election with a record margin that underscored her growing popularity. She resigned the membership of the Rai Bariely constituency in the Uttara Pradesh state in the wake of a controversy centering holding of more than one office of profits.

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Undoubtedly, Sonia's victory by more than four lakh votes is a shot in arms for her and the Congress. Another aspect of her election is her son Rahul Gandhi's increasing visibility in party activities. Already a member of parliament from the nearby Amethi seat, Rahul worked hard in the by-election and the outcome is also seen as a measure of success for him as well as his sister Priyanka Bhadra, who too was involved in the campaign as a part of her peripheral role in politics. Sonia herself praised both for her big victory, which indicates that Rahul is likely to perform key party role in future.

Two southern states, Tamil Nadu and Kerala never returns an incumbent government to power and this tradition has further been reinforced by the outcome this time. In the former, the AIDMK-led alliance headed by Jayaram Jayalalitha lost power while the DKM-led combine has staged a come back and its leader K. Karunanidhi is the new chief minister. His alliance has achieved an absolute majority in the assembly. However, the Tamil Nadu polls had generated some interest since certain forecasts said this might be the time that a government retains power since Jayalalitha was seen by many as close to creating a history. She herself was boastful about her government's performance and felt a new phase would herald in the state. But it did not happen and the state stuck to its practice of changing government through every election. Jayalalitha's alliance lost without giving a stiff resistance. Clearly, two south Indian states fell to anti-incumbency factors. The Congress has not fallen in this pattern in Assam, where although it has not won decisively, but poised to form government again. The party considers this as a success.

But it is the West Bengal which has amazingly withstood anti-establishment factors -- something almost unseen these days in India. On the contrary, it has increased its tally and the opposition strength in the legislature touched the lowest ebb. Main opposition Mamta Banerjee's "Trinamul Congress" is the worst hit winning only 29 seats wheras she was giving an impression of a "silent ballot revolution" in her favour. Once known as a "stormy petrel" of state politics, her own future in the wake of the outcome now hangs in the balance. Mamta had earlier complained about "malparctices" in the voting and the independent election commission this time took unprecedented stringent measures in West Bengal to ensure free and fair voting. Mamta and her party may have to smart in political wilderness at least for some time.

The main Congress is a third force here, but in the last federal parliament it showed improvement and many thought this would be reflected in state polls. But the party cut a sorry figure. About the position of opposition in West Bengal, aging and veteran communist leader Jyoti Basu commented that ruling front would like to see a strong opposition, but the polls could not create one. He is the architect of leftists' success in the state while his able successor Buddhadev Bhattacharya bore the brunt of campaigning this time and can justifiably be credited for the massive victory.

However, the big mandate notwithstanding, the front secured 50 percent of the popular votes, which means it still has 50 percent outside its support base. This is not something that front chairman Biman Bose relishes and stresses further improvement of the government performance in the future. Many seats came their way because of sharp division in the opposition votes. The leftists have not been that able to solve myriad problems of the state, but shown honesty in purpose highlighted by a largely corruption-free administration, an efficient "Panchayat" system in the rural areas and of late willingness for rapid industrialisation along with development of agriculture.

The national level main opposition party Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is not a force as such in any of the states that went to polls and it had little stakes. However, extreme poor showing by its nominee in the by-election against Sonia Gandhi will certainly embarass the party. Uttar Pradesh is a stronghold of not Congress, but of BJP, whose candidate secured votes far less than required to save the deposits!

The outcome of the polls will benefit the leftists most as it will now have bigger clout in the federal UPA government as supporters from outside. Manmohan Singh's government has to give more importance to the views of the leftists as they often differ on several issues like government's stance on the Iran crisis and some economic matters. The BJP will analyse the results which show no decline in the popularity of the centre-ruling Congress and its allies. Last but not the least, the results will make Mamta Banerjee sit up and wonder what's really going wrong with her! The fall out of the state assembly elections will surely have manifold ramifications in India.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is Foreign Editor of BSS.