How much impact can Benazir and Sharif have on Pakistan politics?

Nonetheless, the very fact that leaders of two major political parties -- the Pakistan Peoples party(PPP) and Muslim League (Nawaz) have finally come together on anti-Musharraf platform will have manifold implications. Not unexpectedly, president General Pervez Musharraf has brushed aside any possibility of their impact against the government as he says "corrupt" politicians have no scope for winning public support. Evidently, he refers to the charges of various corruptions by the two former premiers, their close relations and associates when they were in power. But his comments about the opposition leaders are unlikely to deter Benazir and Sharif from embarking upon a new course of intensified agitation while their own role in the movement they spoke about remains unclear because of limitations of being abroad under severe compulsions.

Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif had parleys for the second time, having met in Jeddah before, where the latter has been living in exile for the last few years. He was finally given a visa by the British government that enabled him to travel to London while Benazir is having a self-exiled life for several years living mostly in US,UK and UAE. Many eyes were cast on the nine-hour long meeting between the two one time top leaders of Pakistan. Their understanding on nation's political milieu has generated enormous interest at home and abroad mainly for the reason that Pakistan is approaching to elections late next year and about the role of two key political figures.

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The political landscape of Pakistan has gone through drastic changes since the two leaders left the country and both PPP and the PML(Nawaz) are now in the opposition while the supporters of the military president seem to be firmly in control of the affairs. The national elections that followed after the death of former military ruler Gen. Ziaul Haq in a mysterious plane crash in 1988 brought Benazir to power, but her term was abruptly cut short when her government was sacked by the largely ceremonial president on charge of mismanagement and corruption. Midterm polls saw Nawaz Sharif coming to the helm, but he too faced the same fate and power had once again gone back to Bezazir through balloting. This time too, she was dismissed midway through the term and elections brought her bitter political rival Nawaz Sharif to power with a big majority.

Aware of the constitutional provision of ceremonial president's authority to sack elected governments, Nawaz this time amended the constitution taking the advantage of two-third majority in parliament and scrapped that power of the presidency. But little he knew that he would not be able to complete his term despite this change in the constitution as the problem came from another direction. He was toppled in a bloodless military coup in October,1998 bringing army chief Gen. Musharraf to power, whose most part of existence is characterised by undemocratic rule. Sharif was found guilty of many charges, but sent to exile in Jeddah from prison as mediated by Saudi Arabia and the United States. On the other hand, Benazir faced several corruption charges and she chose to remain abroad evidently fearing arrest on return home. Her husband Asif Zardari served long jail terms on corruption.

The PML suffered major split with most deserting Nawaz. The PPP too was also divided on a small scale. Gen. Musharraf organised national elections before the expiry of three-year time under a supreme court verdict that had validated his coup but ordered fresh polls within three years. The polls were won by pro-government politicians with the focus on former premier Zafarullah Khan Jamali and present Shaukat Aziz from PML(Quiad-e- Azam), PPP (Aftab Sherpao) and MQM of the "Mohajirs". They have majority in the national parliament while the provincial assemblies have mostly Musharraf supporters. The opposition consisting mainly PPP and PML(Nawaz) sought to keep the pot boiling without much success. Musharraf and his supporters faced little challenge. As the polls are due in late 2007, political realignments are discernible and it is in this context two former prime ministers have resolved to bring back democracy in the country as they believe Pakistan is still devoid of representative government.

Meanwhile, Gen. Musharraf held a referendum, which he got endorsed by the federal parliament consisting the national assembly and the senate and the provincial assembelies, where his supporters are in majority. However, during this time the opposition has also increased as Islamic MMA deserted him accusing that the president turned back from a promise to shed uniform by 2004.

Musharraf says that he has brought about enormous changes since taking power and the cup of democracy in Pakistan is now 99 percent full. This is well contested by the opposition and many others because the key person, who is the president himself, remains unelected and still in uniform as army chief. The Commonwealth, which had suspended Pakistan, restored its membership following elections, but hopes that democracy will be complete after the most powerful person sheds uniform and representative character is further enlarged. Many are is dispute with the contention of Gen. Musharraf about restoration of democracy and feel it largely sounds hollow.

About the state of democracy notwithstanding, the president is credited with success in foreign policy, particularly steering the country clear at a difficult time in the wake of the Afghan crisis. The economy mainly led by former finance minister and present premier Shaukat Aziz improved remarkably and the corruption is also much less compared to the regimes of democratic governments. All these go in favour of Gen. Musharraf. But the ambiguity about not giving up the uniform is hardly acceptable. Whether the president will go for another term at the helm following the expiry of present tenure late next year remains unclear. Should he decide to run for another term voted by the members of parliament and provincial assemblies, it is also unclear if the present legislatures or the new ones after the coming polls will elect a new president. One line of interpretation of the constitution is that it is possible that he may be elected by the existing ones just before their life is over. But this is being contested although Musharraf is unclear whether he will seek another term.

People of Pakistan appear to be not much euphoric about the rue of both Benazir and Nawaz Sharif because of their performance even though they were democratically elected. Pakistan certainly needs unalloyed democracy, but this is yet to fully come despite many progress in that direction. The Benazir-Nawaz understanding has resulted in some enthusiasm because of the sympathy they gained being banished abroad for long and restrictions on their return. It remains to be seen whether they will be able to come back Pakistan before the next polls, but politics without the two former heavyweights in the active picture is unlikely to be much credible. How much dent they will be able to make in the strong government base is doubtful at this stage, but many feel that they all should be allowed to play their role in country's politics centering the coming national elections.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is Foreign Editor of BSS.