America is losing its influence on Latin America

Latin America has always been America's backyard. In 1823, America's President Monroe cautioned European powers to keep Latin America alone and Latin America would not be in future European colonies. This policy of "hands-off to Europe" of Latin America was known as "Monroe doctrine".

This means politics in Latin America would be the responsibility of the United States. At that stage the US pursued an "isolationist' policy in world affairs and its sphere of influence was confined to Western hemisphere.

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Its supremacy was acknowledged by Europe after the end of the Second World War. The UN was located not in Europe but in New York, while after the First World War, the headquarters of the League of Nations was established in Geneva.

Since then the US remains the world's strongest military power, biggest economy (GDP US$10.1 trillion compared to EU's US$9.7 trillion), and continues to demonstrate its might over land, sea and space.

Since the Bush administration came to power in 2001, many of the countries of Latin America have been gradually turning away from the US. Some say there is a steady and quiet revolution taking place in Latin America, while the US is heavily engaged in war in Iraq and in Afghanistan.

It appears that hallmark of foreign policy of the Bush administration is unilateralism. For example, Washington's abrogation of the anti-ballistic missile treaty with Russia, its failure to join the International Criminal Court, and its withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol on global warming reflect its reluctance to abide by the rules of multi-lateral institutions. The invasion of the US-led forces in 2003 without the approval of the UN manifested its arrogance and disrespect for the rule-based international order.

The unilateralist policy of the Bush administration has disregarded multilateral institutions in resolving inter-state disputes, within the environment of the post-Cold War world. The world, free of sharp ideological conflicts and large-scale military competition, is one that provides an opportunity for consensus, dialogue and negotiation as ways of settling inter-state disputes.

The majority of Latin American countries argue that if the US does not respect rule-based international order, how can they trust the US?

All the countries in Latin America are democratic and either centre-left or left-wing governments are running the show. The days of right-wing dictatorship with US leanings are gone. After 9/11 when most Latin American countries refused to endorse the US invasion of Iraq, President Bush turned his back on the region, but not before the Bush administration was widely accused of backing a failed coup in 2002 against the left-wing President Hugo Chavez.

No wonder Venezuela's Chavez ( a former military officer) has manifestly shown his anti-US stance. Venezuela resists any influence of the US in Latin America either in trade or in any other cooperative efforts. Furthermore Venezuela has signed an oil deal with China and Chavez's growing ties with Iran led the US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to label him "a threat to hemisphere stability." In reply Chavez in a weekly address reportedly said : " So don't mess with me, Condoleezza."

President Hugo Chavez has also been a close friend of Cuba's Fidel Castro. This friendship has been an eye sore for the Bush administration. The mercurial Chavez has withdrawn from Andean Community's multi-lateral trade regime because it is aligned with the US.

Recently a newcomer has joined with Chavez. An indigenous left-wing President, Evo Morales, was elected as President of Bolivia in last December. He represented poor people and comes of a poor background. It is the first time that a native of indigenous community (rather than a Spanish settler-family) assumed the office of the President. President Hugo Chaves of Venezuela has found an ideal companion in Bolivia to pursue leftwing policies in Latin America, eroding US influence.

On 29th April, three Presidents, Evo Morales of Bolivia, Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and Cuba's Castro met in Havana and signed a unique tripartite pact aimed at countering US influence. Fidel Castro after the signing reportedly stated: "Now for the first time, we are three of us. I believe one day all Latin American countries can be here."

Although the pact is known as trade pact but its contents are much broader. It deals with (a) reduction of tariff for imported goods, (b) eradication of poverty, and illiteracy and (c) expansion of employment. In terms of the pact, Venezuela provides oil at a concessional rate to Cuba, and Cuba will provide free eye treatment to poor Bolivians. Oil-rich Venezuela and Bolivia will give the pact a greater weight.

On May 1st, President Morales of gas-rich Bolivia issued a decree asserting state control of the gas industry and re-negotiate contracts for royalty payment. He gave foreign gas companies six months time to complete the job and put army on all gas plants. It is noted that Bolivian gas is primarily exported to Brazil and Argentina and not to outside of Latin America.

The other members of the Andean Community, namely, Colombia, Peru and Ecuador are watching closely the development of tripartite pact. It is reported that Bolivia's royalty on gas will rise from 50 to 82 percent under re-negotiating terms and Brazil will be hardest hit.

Political observers believe that against the background of rise of gas prices, the US will try to woo President Lula of Brazil to counter the three left-wing Presidents' effort to undermine influence of the US in Latin America. The question is whether Brazil, the largest country with the biggest economy in Latin America with centre-left President, will dance to the tune of the US. Future can only tell us the position of Latin America vs the US.

Barrister Harun ur Rashid is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.