Tougher time for UPA in the third year

The withdrawal of this critical support means a straight development -- the fall of the UPA government, which the leftists will not want because the secular UPA is much more acceptable to it than the previous ruling BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which is widely seen as being communal. In the event of the exit of the present government, in all probability a midterm election will take place and return of the NDA to power is not ruled out. The leftists will not relish such a development. Nonetheless, their support to the UPA is not absolute and cannot be taken for granted. This may be more pronounced in the third year of the UPA rule when the communists will definitely enjoy a bigger say in the running of the UPA government since they have acquired greater strength in the recently held polls to five state assemblies -- four of which are important in Indian context in varying degrees.

The UPA headed by the Congress won the national elections over two years ago rather unexpectedly when the NDA government headed by charismatic BJP leader Atal Bihari Vajpayee advanced the polls by several months in the belief that the decision would help the ruling rainbow coalition. But what happened was a shocking defeat despite good performance of the government in several sectors like the IT and industrial development. The "shining India" slogan, however, proved counter-productive as rural India felt neglected and this was reflected in the results of the polls. Wisely, the present government has taken lesson from this and has concentrated in rural areas as well, which is helping it in garnering public support. The recent state assembly polls have shown that the Congress and its partners in the UPA have done fairly well -- the Congress in particular retained power in Assam and Pondicherry, won in Tamil Nadu in alliance with dominant regional ally DMK while it lost in Kerala and, of course, it never had a chance in leftist bastion West Bengal. Despite setbacks in Kerala, Congress feels it has done well when it is in power at the centre. This a measure of its performance as the head of the UPA alliance.

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The UPA launched several initiatives in the foreign and domestic affairs, where the economy has shown progress. Certainly, the government derives benefit from the leadership of a person like Dr. Singh, who is seen as the architect of India's economic reforms in the early nineties when he was the finance minister in Narasimha Rao's government. In the foreign policy area, the government feels it has taken the country to a new height by emerging as a regional power. The is evident from the readiness of the US to work more closely with New Delhi. The two nations have signed a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement during president Bush's visit, which is widely considered as Washington's going out of the way for India. At domestic level, the main opposition BJP is somewhat in a disarray following the last polls debacle and also because of internal problems as well as differences with its allies Vishwa Hindu Parishad, Shiv Sena and the RSS. The opposition failed to mount a serious challenge against the government either in parliament or on the streets and this made the government's stay for the last two years rather easy. However, the government had its setbacks as well when foreign minister Natwar Singh had to quit in the wake of a controversy involving Volkar commission. UPA allies lost power in important states like Bihar and the raging debate on parliamentarians having more than one office of profits. This had adverse impact, but not to the extent of troubling the government much.

In the third year, the government will face a more determined leftists, who earlier felt somewhat unheeded on such issues like India's pro-western position on the Iran imbroglio, present government's too close ties with the United States, prices of the energy products and some other economic matters. The leftists, buoyed by the success in Kerala and West Bengal, will now seek to exert greater pressure on the government. CPM general secretary Prakash Karat said the government cannot go scot-free when dealing with the leftists on key policy matters. True, they are in no mood to contribute to the fall of this present government, but they will certainly not accept anything that will go seriously against their policy. Already energy minister Murli Deora accepted leftist demands to an extent when he said prices of kerosene and some other products will not increase considering common people's interest despite increase of the oil price. The foreign policy issues, especially New Delhi's too close relations with Washington will have to be pursued taking into account the leftists; at least to some extent. On economic matters too, UPA government will need to adjust its policies on several issues -- failing which the leftists may seek to show value of their critical support. In the event of the non-ratification of the Indo-US nuclear deal by the American Congress, the much-hyped development will boomerang on the government. However, chances of approval by the Congress are there.

The opposition is trying to shed inertia and swing into its role more vociferously. It is seeking to whip up again on the "foreigner" issue against Sonia and alleges that it is she and not the prime minister, who is really running the government. The contention has been totally rejected by the UPA. But despite Sonia's big win in the by-election, the Congress remains weak in the key Hindi belt states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh etc. The Opposition is targetting these states in the coming days for anti-central government agitation in a bid to put pressure on ruling alliance. The UPA may also find some problems in maintaining the unity and cohesion of its partners on a variety of issues. Besides, it has complex matters like talks with the separatists in Kashmir or insurgents in North-East on its hands. The government is not on slippery ground, but is likely to walk a tight rope in the third year even though its survival is not at stake.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is Foreign Editor of BSS.