The prime minister's gamble
ON July 21, Prime Minister Taro Aso's cabinet endorsed his plan to call an August 30 general election, which is likely to tumble his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) out of government for only the second time in 54 years.
As prime minister, he can call a general election at any time, but had apparently been waiting, gambling that his political fortune could improve.
The decision to call the vote, which must be held by October, follows a crushing loss for the unpopular Aso's ruling LDP in a Tokyo election on July 19, which was seen as a barometer for the national poll. The Tokyo election seemed to have forced his hand.
Aso dissolved the Lower House of Parliament (House of Representatives) on July 21 in preparation for the campaign, which begins officially on August 18 but is actually well under way -- with the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) building a huge lead in opinion polls.
Aso, who is known for gaffes that have offended people from doctors to the elderly, was speaking after he dissolved the lower house of Japan's Diet, or parliament. "There might have been some inappropriate comments I made that might have led to the lowering of the support of the people of Japan. I would like to take this opportunity to apologise," he said.
Aso, who has led the LDP and the government since September 2008, is being blamed by people within his party for the acute deterioration their popularity.
Elected to lead the party at virtually the same time the global economic crisis hit the Japanese economy, Aso had been expected by his supporters to call an election almost immediately.
Japan has been battered by an unprecedented collapse in global demand, and now faces its deepest recession since World War II. The country's GDP shrank at an alarming annual rate of 12.1% in the October-December quarter.
The prime minister decided to delay calling the election while passing a ¥14.7 trillion ($150 billion) emergency economic package in May, and then delayed further hoping that the measures could take hold in the electorate before the poll date. The political and economic rebounds failed to eventuate.
After a succession of bad losses in recent regional and city elections, most polls now show the DPJ heading the LDP by 2-1 margin, and a similar distance between new opposition leader Yukio Hatoyama and Aso.
The trends are so pronounced they raise a possibility that the DPJ, which held only 112 of 480 seats in the old House, could win a simple majority, though it's more likely that Mr. Hatoyama will need a coalition with several small parties to govern.
"It will be a revolutionary election that will end the leadership of bureaucrats and put the focus on the people," Kyodo news agency quoted Democratic Party leader Yukio Hatoyama as telling party members. "I feel we have a historic mission."
Established 11 years ago, the DPJ has never been in government, while the LDP has been out of power only once in its existence, for 10 months after it lost the 1993 general election.
The Democratic Party of Japan may usher in a new era of Japanese politics. Opposition leader Hatoyama said on July 17 that it was time for a new era in Japanese politics and that the country should be inspired by President Barack Obama's win in last year's elections in US.
The Democrats have pledged to pay more heed to the rights of individual consumers and workers than those of corporations, and to reduce bureaucratic control over policy-making as a way to reduce waste of taxpayers' money and refocus spending. The opposition party has promised change to improve welfare measures and lower the cost of education.
"I think that, for the short-term, the hope that the Democrats taking power will cure the parliamentary paralysis and lead to smooth passage of bills and policies will outweigh any worries about uncertainty," said Noritsugu Hirakawa, a strategist at Okasan Securities.
The Democratic Party has pledged to adopt diplomatic and security policies less "subservient" to close ally US, so some analysts fear the US-Japan alliance may suffer. But the party appears to be toning down policies that are likely to worry Washington.
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