How safe are we?
LIKE Paul Nitze, who served US presidents from Franklin Roosevelt to Bush Sr. in different capacities, and George Kennan, who conceived the containment policy of communism that guided US after the Second World War till recently, Harry Truman also had, in his Defense Secretary, a hawk and Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, a dove, who were called upon by Truman along with Secretary of State Dean Acheson to advise him in whether US should try to build a hydrogen bomb, knowing that the bomb could destroy civilisation as was known at that time.
When the trio met the president with their final recommendation, Truman asked, "Can the Russians do it?" The answer was, "Yes, they can." Thus, in seven minutes, one of the most momentous decisions of the 20th century was made by the American president. (Hawk and DoveNicolas Thompson -- September 10, 2009).
No degree of George Kennan's pleadings to Acheson, to advise Truman against making the bomb because of its terrifying destructive capabilities, could sway the decision. Kennan had ignored the way the US was interpreting Russia's technological success and was concerned over the "intention" that the Soviets could conceivably drop an atomic bomb on US.
Is it possible to imagine such a scenario in this region given Pakistan's implacable conviction that India, and not the Taliban, notwithstanding Hekmatullh Mashud's warning that more blood will be shed to avenge the killing of erstwhile Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan head Baitullah Meshud by US drone attack, may put this region in an atomic confrontation?
President Obama's Af-Pak strategy body's Chair, Bruce Riedel, has been convinced for a long time that South Asia remains the most dangerous part of the world and Pakistan is now the epicentre of terrorism in the world.
Robert Blackwill (Rand Corporation-occasional papers, 2009) unequivocally states: "It is important to stress that Pakistan quite apart from global recession, is the epicentre of global terrorism and one that represents potentially the most dangerous international situation since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis."
Though Thomas Friedman's much discussed book, The World is Flat, essentially deals with the barriers taken down between the First and the Third Worlds by the technological advances, he describes al-Qaeda and the related terrorist groups as the greatest threat to this flat world.
Friedman believes that much of terrorism is driven by the humiliation that the societies that terrorists come from have suffered. This, in a way, converges with the thesis of historian Bernard Lewis that the root of Muslim rage is due to the Muslim world's defeat at the hands of Judeo-Christian civilisations over several centuries. Such an explanation is simplistic yet may not be easily controvertible.
Despite the allegation that during Parvez Musharraf's regime out of $6 billion given by US only $500 million found its way to the Pakistan military, the recent US Congress' decision to give a five-year authorisation of $1.5 billion per anum to Pakistan reflects America's and the West's concern about this nation.
The Kerry-Lugar Bill passed by the Senate says, "There are at least three serious, interlocking threats to the United States emanating from Pakistan today: Direct attempts by al-Qaeda to attack the US and Americans abroad; the possibility that al-Qaeda influenced jihadists could acquire direct or indirect influence over Pakistan's nuclear arsenal; and the possibility that Pakistan-based jihadi groups could provoke a war between India and Pakistan. The only way to help mitigate these threats is to attempt to stabilise Pakistan, and then, in the longer term, construct a strategic partnership that breaks the patterns of the past and promotes normalisation of ties between India and Pakistan. The best way for the US to contribute to that daunting effort right now is to encourage and assist the Pakistani military as it tries to roll back the Taliban (which the Pakistan Army succoured and created) while simultaneously attempting to strengthen Pakistan's economy and its shaky power-sharing arrangements between the military and civilian politicians."
It was further amplified in the comments made on September 24 by Richard Hallbrook to the effect that "There's a growing realisation around the world that Pakistan is critically important in its own right, and it's also important in terms of the entire region, especially Afghanistan."
He added, "There seems to be a growing recognition that the Taliban and other miscreants, to use the Pakistanis' own word for this, are a threat to the entire country and are alien to the spirit of Muhammad Ali Jinnah and the founders of Pakistan."
Hallbrook's comments are familiar to the ones made by Lisa Curtis that "these radicals are forcing a way of life on Pakistan citizens that is alien to their own historical and religious traditions and aspirations to constitutional democracy" (Web Memo-April 22, 2009).
Recent arrests in Bangladesh of Hakatul Jihad and other militants testify to the cross border connections among militants from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The present government appears determined to root out the militancy from the country. We would be better advised if both hard and soft powers are used in this protracted fight along with international cooperation.
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