Ending the Afghan war
PRESIDENT Obama is being compelled to rethink his major foreign policy initiatives. With regard to the war in Afghanistan he is facing strong differences with foreign leaders. This does not mean he has nothing to show for his efforts. US relation with Russia has improved. However, disturbing developments like exposure by US and its allies that Iran is operating another secret nuclear facility, and US commander in Afghanistan Stanley McChrystal's demand for 10,000 to 30,000 more troops, are bothering him.
It is time for US to take a firm decision about its Afghan policy. Nato, the EU and other nations have invested heavily in stabilising the country over the last 8 years. As such, they may not abandon it because the Taliban are proving tougher than anticipated. There is a big gap between goals outline by US administration and the means available to achieve them. This gap cannot be closed by sending more troops.
What is needed is true understanding about the extent of anticipated success in Afghanistan. There is nothing wrong in helping Afghans to develop their country. To give them a strong functioning central government and a viable economy will, however, decades.
Situated at the crossroads of Asia, throughout its history, conquering armies have marched through the green valley beneath its forbidding mountains, but no one has ever been able to subjugate its warlike fiercely independent tribes.
At this stage of the Afghan war it appears to be proper for US to concentrate more on deal-making with the Afghans and less on their nation-building. The Obama administration may follow the practice of the British administration (when the British ruled the country) of buying, renting or bribing Pashtun tribes; but the US is reluctant to follow it.
Afghanistan needs a Pashtun leader, and Karzai is not bad choice even if charges of corruption and vote rigging against him be true. There is no certainty that his successor will be more honest and efficient. In fact, the last election appears to have created an opportunity for building a national-unity government.
According to some analysts there are 3 ways to change security conditions in Afghanistan. They are:
-Increasing American troops,
-Increasing Afghan troops, and
-Shrinking enemy forces by making them outsiders or making them lay down their arms.
The third option has been successful in Iraq and this may also be successful in Afghanistan. There is no doubt that Afghanistan will remain poor, corrupt and dysfunctional for few more years. What is critical is keeping the country inhospitable for the al-Qaeda. Otherwise, there will be revival of the poisonous alliance between the Pakistani military and hard-line elements of the Talibans.
If we analyse the history of Afro-Asia and Latin American countries we can discover the interference of the powerful states. Fortunately, in such a restless political situation, President Obama has emerged as the most distinguished political leader committed to change the world's political scenario from restlessness to peace and tranquility. In fact, his pious intention has brought him the Nobel Prize for peace. We can, therefore, hope and aspire for the return of peace in Iraq and Afghanistan and amicable settlement of the US-Iran nuclear proliferation issue.
Since the Twin Towers tragedy, the world has not been at peace. This tragedy ultimately resulted in history's worst economic meltdown. Americans are still paying dearly for political restlessness in Iraq and Afghanistan. Even the US dollar has lost its stability appreciably.
The US administration must have been convinced through their experience during the last 8 years that a sophisticated system like democracy cannot be imposed on people accustomed to tribal culture for centuries. For implanting such a system we shall have to wait, perhaps, for decades. US success in Afghanistan should mean making the Talibans and al-Qaeda followers unacceptable to the common Afghans. This needs setting up of a pro-west central government in Afghanistan suited to the genius of common Afghans.
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