The Lisbon Treaty has taken a step forward
THE Irish 'Yes' to the Lisbon Treaty has been good news for Europe. The fact that two-thirds of the Irish electorate voted in favour -- and with a higher turnout than when the 'No' camp prevailed in June 2008 (58% versus 53%) -- is being seen as an important step towards the treaty's entry into force. A second Irish 'No' might have killed it off and conveyed to both European citizens and the wider world the image of a union that cannot get its act together and deliver on what it agrees upon. Ireland's "resounding yes" to Lisbon can now be viewed as a much-needed turning point after almost a decade of failed institutional reforms. It will assist in the creation of conditions for a much better union.
This strong endorsement of the Lisbon treaty by the Irish after eight years of divisive attempts has also sparked off the jockeying for position over the plum jobs that it will create.
Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair's interest in becoming president of the EU has been Europe's worst-kept secret for more than a year. He is a clear favourite ahead of Jan-Peter Balkenende, the Dutch prime minister, Paavo Lipponen, the former Finnish premier, Felipe Gonzalez, the former Spanish leader, and Jean-Claude Juncker, the veteran Luxembourg prime minister. However, there appears to be several procedural obstacles that need to be crossed before this can take place. It will take time, require support of re-elected Chancellor Merkel and also, the completion of some other important steps. This will stem not only from the very nature of the process but will also include resolution of the question as to the powers of the new president of the EU, compared to the expanded role of high representative.
Following the Irish 'Yes,' 26 EU members have now successfully completed the ratification process. Until last week, it was pending in Poland, but after the Irish vote, the treaty has been ratified there. However, the treaty's entry into force is by no means immediately certain. Ratification is still pending in one member state: the Czech Republic.
The situation is far more complex in Prague. Czech President Vaclav Klaus openly opposes the Lisbon Treaty and has persistently refused to sign it, despite the fact that both the lower Czech chamber (in February 2009) and the upper Czech house (in May 2009) have approved the text. He has declared that he will await the outcome of the ratification process in all other EU member states. It is now being presumed that the Irish and (most likely) Polish decisions will increase the pressure on him to sign -- although his reaction to such influence remains unpredictable at this stage. He might still reiterate that he will await the final verdict of the constitutional court with regard to cases pertaining to the Lisbon Treaty filed in this forum in Prague. The Czech president, unhappy with Brussels, might also use the existing political instability card at home (the country is being run by a caretaker administration) and plead that he will have to await the outcome of the next elections before signing the treaty.
I have pointed out the existing difficulties so that readers understand that the high enthusiasm created through the Irish vote does not mean that the treaty is home and dry and that Blair will be 'President of the EU' within days.
In fact, if it is not ratified by all 27 member states before the next UK elections (also due by June 2010), the Lisbon Treaty could face a more substantial risk. David Cameron, the leader of the British conservatives -- likely to win the election -- has already declared his intention to hold a referendum on the treaty if it has not yet entered into force. A negative outcome to any such vote appears an almost foregone conclusion.
However, it is clear that the European Union cannot afford protracted uncertainty and stalemate over its legal basis, given the many urgent internal and external challenges it faces. This includes decisions pertaining to the composition of the next European Commission, since the current college's mandate expires on October 31-- as does that of High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana. It would be important to remember here that the size and shape of the former and the competences of the latter will be different depending on whether they are appointed on the basis of Nice or Lisbon. Such a unique situation will require a combination of resolve and flexibility from all sides.
In the meantime, the current Swedish EU presidency has not been sitting idle. They have begun working on a multi-pronged approach ahead of the forthcoming European Council meeting on October 29-30. There is a possibility that this council session might extend the current commission's mandate by up to two months, in order to buy some time and allow for the nomination of the new college. The fact that President Barroso has been confirmed for another five-year term should make this easier. This will enable the commission to be seen not simply as a lame-duck caretaker body.
Secondly, the European Council could appoint Mr. Solana's successor straight away and also decide that, as a consequence, his/her country will not have a commissioner until the Lisbon Treaty enters into force. When that happens, the new high representative will join the commission as vice-president and oversee the union's 'foreign policy,' in compliance with the Lisbon Treaty. Such a mechanism would allow for the nomination and organization of the new college, which may consist of the president and 25 commissioners. It would, thus, still be in line with Nice (fewer commissioners than member states), but also easily adaptable to Lisbon.
President Barroso could subsequently submit details of his new commission to the European parliament for the required hearings in the relevant committees, which could start in mid-to-late November. In the meantime, and up until the December 2009 EU summit, the European council and the parliament could remain in close contact to be able to agree quickly on switching to a Lisbon-based 'script' -- including the final vote of confirmation on the entire commission -- if and when circumstances allow. This could be done either by written procedure (as happened over President Barroso's appointment) or by convening a snap extraordinary summit to set the date for the new treaty's entry into force, and adopting the required formal steps.
Only then will it be possible to enter into the final stage where a semi-permanent president of the European council can be appointed and regulations introduced to enhance the efficiency, transparency and legitimacy of the enlarged EU.
Muhammad Zamir is a former Secretary and Ambassador and can be reached at mzamir@dhaka.net
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