The Russian factor in a grand bargain
THE 27-nation bloc of the European Union is indeed uncertain about how to deal with Moscow as a resurgent Russia casts its long shadow over the continent. Hardliners like Angela Merkel of Germany and Nicolas Sarkozy of France, with eyes on their dependence on Russia's gas supplies, instinctively reel themselves back from being stringent and are unwilling to let relations with Moscow become too sour.
However much the Europeans try to give the bloc's foreign relations a cosmopolitan flavour, their often volatile ties with Russia looms large on the horizon. Dealing with an assertive, self confident and energy-rich Russia is proving difficult even for the Obama administration. Only the former communist East European members of EU are in favour of going roughshod with Russia -- although such views are drowned by the protests of more circumspect and polished West European countries.
The European debate on Russia has been rendered even more complex by President Obama, who has called for collaborative ties between more sensitive Nato and Russia despite the latter's suspicious over the US's revamped BMD (Ballistic Missile Defence) shield. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the new Nato secretary-general, also wants to improve relations with the alliance's former cold war adversary. At a recent parley in Washington President Obama and Mr Rasmussen, a former Danish prime minister, agreed that increased engagement with Russia was a priority for Nato.
In the meantime, the US president stunned many in Europe by announcing that Washington wanted to scrap the Bush-era missile defence plan for Europe. Bush's initiative was bitterly opposed by Moscow, which claimed that the deployment of ground-based interceptors in Poland and a radar site in Czech Republic, as envisaged in the missile defence shield for Europe, threatened Russian security. The revamped plan, according to the Obama administration, is designed to address more immediate threats from Iran, and would involve deploying US ships with missile interceptors and, in the second phase, fielding a land-based defence system.
Moscow first reacted to the shift favourably. But Russians officials now say that their strategic nuclear weapons could be threatened by the revised plan. It is, however, Poland and Czech Republic that are shaken most by the change in US's BMD policy. Obama's announcement also reinforces the notion that Eastern Europe, once the at the core of American foreign policy, is no more so in Washington's focus -- compared with her problems in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran and North Korea. The concern in the former communist states where fear of Russia is ingrained by centuries of war and occupation is that the US is becoming soft on Russia because the West cannot tackle Iran and other global challenges without the veto-wielding Russia -- and also China.
As far as relations with Russia are concerned, Europe is usually led by Washington and Brussels. An independent European attitude -- though less obvious -- may prompt it to change on its own, as it is doing now, in putting its relations with Russia back on track following the diplomatic chill as a result of the Russia-Georgia conflict and Europe's role in that in the summer of 2008. Significantly, a report from the EU-funded independent international fact finding mission released recently refused to put the blame for the conflict on Moscow, saying instead that "the conflict is rooted in a profusion of causes."
Historical tensions and overreaction on the part of both Russia and Georgia contributed to the five-day conflict last summer, the report underlined. "There is no way to assign overall responsibility for the conflict to one side alone," the study insisted. The report bore fruit beyond measure. The Kremlin said that it was ready to restore cooperation with Nato, which was suspended after the war. Rasmussen is expected to visit Moscow soon to further cement the relationship. In a rare gesture, the Nato chief said that Russia should "make its voice heard" in the Western alliance's new security strategy currently under discussion in Nato capitals.
Though a warming of Nato-Russia relations will not be without hitches, at least with regard to further eastward expansion of Nato to include former Soviet neighbours such as Ukraine and Georgia, Moscow's opposition is rather obsessive. It would interesting to watch the bargaining game between the West, which needs Russia for a stable world, and a resurgent Russia holding all the bargaining chips. Would it, therefore, be putting in place just a revamped BMD shield in place, or courting a Russia on whose injury a lot of salt had been sprinkled after the fall of the Soviet Union!
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