Perspectives
Russia's new czar?
The style had been typically that of a KGB operative, quiet, sneaky and even secretive. That's the way the little-known spy adopted in catapulting his country to its lost height as he became the second president of the Russian Federation, the largest partof once-powerful Soviet Union. Vladimir Putin, who laments the collapse of the Union as the "greatest geo-political catastrophe of the century" couldn't have been oblivious of the humiliation it entailed, with the loss of the country's stature as a superpower if not of the ideological defeat accompanying it. To add insult to the injury, Boris Yeltsin, his predecessor, had left the country in a total mess, with high corruption, the rise of the mafia and unruly oligarchs who controlled the economy in the name of free-market and created anarchy in the name of democracy, chronic unemployment and critically devalued currency. Obviously, it was far from easy to restore the country's socio-economic and political order as well as its financial discipline. But, as a judo expert, he combated the hostile forces and went about consolidating the central authority over the world's still biggest geographical entity with a determination that took everyone by surprise. With a new class of loyalists known as "Siloviki," comprised of Putin's former KGB fraternity and ambitious young politicians, he could bring up faithful people like Medvedev from almost nowhere. Now elected the federation's third president, the incumbent himself called it a day for constitutional bar, and made way for Medevedev to take over the presidency in May. It was, however, merely swapping over of the offices, because Putin, still superbly fit at 55, decided to remain part of the Kremlin's power-structure as prime minister but, more importantly, also as the head of the ruling United Russia Party thus forming a duumvirate of state authority. This bizarre change of guard obviously raised the question as to how it would work out and precisely who was the Kremlin's real boss. Amid conflicting views, it is worthwhile recalling some of the antecedents of the Soviet system Putin himself grew up with. In that system, the real power used to be held by the Party, its general secretary and the Politburo, who made all important policy decisions. In tandem, the government headed by the president was charged with state protocol and running of the administration. As the real power is exercised by the party boss, a similar dual arrangement between Putin and Medvedev may be envisaged, where the former fills the role of Soviet-style party secretary, wielding all vital powers and also calling the shots. Meantime, Medvedev, Putin's longtime protege, who was only a deputy prime minister earlier is expected to remain happy while utilising his vast experience as former head of Gazprom, Russia's giant energy firm, to advance the cause of economic development for raising the people's living standard. Remember the Breznev-Podgorny equation, for example? It is not surprising that Putin, now of the status of a national leader after eight years of presidency when he single-handedly not only salvaged Russia from economic morass but also gave the country political and economic stability that put Russia among the ten most highly developed countries, is now inclined to wear another hat, that of the "older statesman," to guide the destiny of the nation. No one seems to have objection to that inclination, as is reflected by his exceptionally high approval rating. "The Putin effect," as they call it, has achieved it all. His passionate fondness for Czar Peter the Great, whom he takes to be his role model and whose portrait embellishes his office, points to his predilection and the vision he nourishes. To help in materialising his dream Putin is well aware of the bonanza he, together with Medvedev, could use. He also knows its potential to command for more influence over Western Europe than it did when the Red Army's 100 division, along with Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBM) were deployed in Europe at the height of the Cold War. In addition to the country's stockpile of nuclear warheadsonly second to the US in sizeRussia today has 20 percent of the world's gas reserves and at least 7 percent of proven oil reserves, some 75 bn barrels, the world's largest forest reserves apart from a quarter of its fresh water resources. Russia's new found prosperity has spawned a consumer boom in the country, and made it an attractive trade destination to do business with. Putin wanted to showcase the occasion of the reshuffling in Kremlin in his style with the attendance of the rock band Deep Purple, which both he and his successor are fond of. Swan Lake, being out of vogue, was discarded. The most striking aspect of the Medvedev's swearing-in had been the display of Russia's youthfulness, with tele-savvy new power-players of Kremlin who oozed vitality before 200 dignitaries from around the world. After a long hiatus, also back was traditional military parade for the first time after 1992. A new Russia was on the march. Putin has transformed Russia to an extent that it is once again reckoned a major power. It's more than that. Soviet Union war a uni-dimensional superpower -- a sort of Upper Volta with rockets, as the joke went round during those days. But Putin's Russia is a multi-dimensional power. So much so, it has made even Europe critically dependent on Russia for its energy. Imagine what can happen to the continent if the Kremlin turns off the gas export tap, as it recently did to late-paying Ukraine. Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.
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