Going Deeper
Hostage to history
THE recent events in South Asia are disturbing. At a time when the Saarc nations are preparing to hold their next summit shortly and the environment ministers of the Saarc member nations just had their meeting at Dhaka in which critical issues of adverse effects of climate change and the need for ensuring food security were discussed, the terrorist attack on the Indian embassy at Kabul followed by Afghan official accusation that Pakistan intelligence agency ISI was involved in the carnage that took the lives of some Indian diplomats and injured many Afghans waiting at the embassy for visa to visit India does not augur well for cementing the bonds of cooperation in the regional organisation.
While Indian reaction to the Kabul carnage has been measured, the Pakistan prime minister has totally denied any involvement of his country in the terrorist incident. If Kargil misadventure is any indication (President Musharraf claims that then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was in the loop before the Pakistani troops crossed the line of control while Nawaz Sharif claimed that he was kept completely in the dark about the incident) it is theoretically possible that ISI might have kept the Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani government in the dark about its involvement in the attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul. But then Afghan government is yet to produce concrete evidence of Pakistan involvement as demanded by Pakistan government.
It is well known that Pakistan had always regarded Afghanistan as "strategic depth" in the event of Indo-Pak conflict, and consequently is worried about alleged increased Indian influence in Afghanistan. Besides, President Hamid Karzai's strident accusations that attack on Afghan and Nato forces in Afghanistan are conceived and financed from Pakistani soil have added fuel to the fire.
In defense of Pakistani government, it can be argued that some of the areas along the Pak-Afghan border are under effective Taliban control and Pakistan government is trying, both through signing an agreement with the Taliban and through military means, to bring back these areas under the central government control.
Pakistan's inability so far to stop the cross-border incursions into Afghanistan has led to the US military leaders including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen to claim that the US had the right to take military action in Pakistan or in Afghanistan without prior information to either government if the US got reliable and concrete intelligence about the presence of top leadership of Taliban or al-Qaeda including Osama bin Laden.
Pakistan immediately denounced such US claims and asserted that only Pakistani troops had sole responsibility to root out militants within Pakistani border. Pakistan itself is beset with terrorist attacks as seen in the Red Mosque incident in Islamabad, and, most recently, bomb blasts in Karachi.
The gravity of the situation can be gauged by the remarks of presumptive Democratic party presidential nominee Barack Obama on July 9 that the bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul "is one more indication of severe deterioration that we have seen in the security situation in Afghanistan." He has suggested phased deployment of US troops from Iraq to Afghanistan "to stabilise the situation in Afghanistan and go on the offensive against al-Qaeda who have reconstituted themselves (and) have created safe havens in the north-west province of Pakistan."
Problems in Afghanistan are complex. In the international context the resurgence of al-Qaeda (suspected by some with the help of ISI) that was underlined by Dick Cheney to President Musharraf during one of his visits to Pakistan when he informed President Musharraf of the US Congress's growing frustration with Pakistan and of the Democratic party's threat to make aid conditional on a crackdown on Taliban in the tribal areas.
One political analyst quoted a paper written by a senior British Defense Ministry official alleging ISI's involvement in indirectly supporting the Taliban and suggesting that the problem would not be solved unless "Pakistan moves away from the rule of the military." In the immediate context Pakistan's suspicion of India taking advantage of deteriorating relations between Pak-Afghan relations is a reflection of historical animosity that has guided Pakistan's endeavor to have close relations with the West ever since the partition of India in 1947.
"Indeed," writes Dr. Harsh Pant, "The development of closer ties between Kabul and Delhi has placed India's fragile relations with Pakistan under even more pressure, as well as jeopardising Pakistan-Afghanistan ties. It strengthens Pakistani fears of encirclement and of the implications of India's rising global status more widely."
The turbulence in Afghanistan has added to the woes of South Asia that is deeply dependant on co-operation with the West in all areas. Some would like to assume that the Deobandi ascendancy in NWFP, Baluchistan, and Afghanistan created an Islamist-Pathan belt stretching from Kandahar to Quetta to Peshawar. Does it necessarily mean the ascendancy of the Islamists in Pakistan?
Though Pakistan is a deeply religious Islamic country, the most recent elections have shown that the Islamists have not fared well at the polls. Therefore the Western hope of establishing in most parts of Pakistan of a form of secular government may not be ill founded. Obstacles to deliberative and liberal democracy remain in the feudal structure of the Pakistani society that South Asian expert Stephen Cohen describes as "moderate oligarchy" meaning a coalition of military, some chosen members of the bureaucracy, judiciary, industrialists, and the landed gentry who have ruled Pakistan ever since its birth.
The restoration of democracy ushered through the elections held recently that has propelled PPP-led coalition government at the centre, PML(N) in Punjab, and ANP in NWFP, disappearance of President Musharraf (the manner of his exit is to be decided by the Pakistanis), the restoration of 1973 constitution, among others, appear to be the only reasonable short, medium and long term solution for the stability and economic development of Pakistan. The quest for peace in Pakistan would also mean peace in South Asia, keeping in mind the objective realities that have emerged in the region.
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