Post Breakfast
Future US engagement in Palestine
The aerial and naval bombardment undertaken by Israel against the citizens of Gaza along with the ground offensive is now expected to wind down after the adoption of Security Council Resolution on Friday. Hundreds have died including innocent women and children. Residents in certain areas of Israel have also been subjected to crude home-made rocket attacks from Gaza. The international community in the meantime have failed to act with resolve. This has further exacerbated the situation.
The current political situation within Israel also continues to become more complex by the day. Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, an aspirant for the post of Prime Minister has criticized Israel's acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert for not taking 'a leave of absence'. She has pointed out that it has become 'a moral test' and 'a question of values' as to whether Olmert can continue in office after having been indicted in a graft case (multiple billing related to foreign trips). Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak, another aspirant for the post, is also being a hawk to prove that he can be a strong Prime Minister.
Livni is hoping that Olmert will vacate the seat, so that she can take over as head of the caretaker government until a new government can be formed after the next election (scheduled on 10 February). On the other hand, Olmert's office has made it clear that he does not intend to leave his present position at the head of the caretaker government and has stressed that he has already quit as Prime Minister to conform to existing legal requirements.
These contradictions have created their own dynamics and weakened the prospect of peace in that troubled region. The deteriorating situation has further worsened due to intensifying violence over the last few weeks between Israel's armed forces and Palestinian militants who control the Gaza Strip. Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas in his final meeting with Bush (last month) tried to salvage the situation, but the resignation of David Welch, US Special Envoy to the Middle East, has not helped.
The renewal of hostilities and the closing down of all the entry points on the border has had humanitarian consequences. Israel has clamped down and for all practical purposes violated the rights of the aid-dependent Palestinian territory despite international concern. The lack of clear, accepted government authority within Israel is not helping matters. The difficulty has been further compounded by the fact that there also exists within the Palestinian leadership animosity and severe differences of opinion.
Efforts to move forward the peace process by the USA and the Quartet have been affected by this impasse and uncertainty. This was best reflected in a recent CNN interview of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, presently Special Envoy to the peace process. There was absence of the optimism that had been noticed in his comments to the CNN after the accord had been signed between the stakeholders in Annapolis last year. Yes, this time round, he talked of hope and expectation that the new US President would devote more attention to the resolution of this problem from Day One of his term. However, the tone was one of guarded optimism rather than great enthusiasm.
My attention in the meantime has also been drawn to recent observations made by Yasser Abed Rabbo (the Secretary General of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization). He has expressed hopes about a positive outcome. He has noted that the mainstream Palestinian hierarchy is encouraged by President-elect Obama's emphasis on the word 'change'. Comments by other moderate leaders from within the Palestinian political process have also underlined expectations for a more hands-on engagement during the new US Presidency. This hope has also been reiterated by the 22-member Arab League in their statement issued a few days ago when they urged Obama to 'prioritize achieving a comprehensive solution'.
Palestinians, particularly the Palestinian Diaspora, have always strongly identified themselves with the civil rights movement in the United States and Obama's victory is renewing hopes that they will possibly now get proper justice and freedom despite the constraints that bind US-Israel bilateral relations. They believe that there is now a possibility for the US to play a more constructive role in the search for peace and security within the agreed road map that is meant to lead to the establishment of a two-state solution.
A realistic assessment suggests that Obama might give the resolution of this issue greater priority than given by Bush. However, it would be foolish to think that it will receive precedence over serious issues like the economic meltdown (which is affecting millions of citizens in heartland America) or the intractable war in Afghanistan, or the question of avowed withdrawal within 16 months from Iraq or the cooling down of the escalating crisis in South Asia between the two nuclear neighbours -- India and Pakistan.
Nevertheless, it will be important for the new US Presidential team in the State Department and the Office of National Security to focus also on the creation of a momentum on the Palestinian issue.
The first step of the new US Administration could be the establishment of a credible enforcement mechanism to ensure that the parties to the road map comply with their respective obligations, particularly, with regard to the sensitive subject of an immediate freeze on Israeli settlement activity throughout the occupied Palestinian territory.
It is commonly agreed by analysts that Israel, despite agreeing to stipulations in the Annapolis accord is continuing to violate international law and its road map commitments. Neutral observers, including British Prime Minister Brown have expressed serious anxiety in this regard. Some have even noted that Israeli activists and zealots are accelerating such activity. Construction of settlement housing units is now over 40 per cent higher than prior to Annapolis. Israeli demolition of Palestinian homes has also increased in East Jerusalem. This is creating more internally displaced persons and anger.
The second step could be greater re-engagement of the Quartet partners. This would broaden and make more meaningful the paradigm of international partnership. The completion of the suspended Israeli electoral process and wider participation would not only generate confidence for the stakeholders but would also reduce the load on the shoulders of the United States.
The last step could be persuading Israel to accept as serious the provisions contained in the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative which offers Israel full normalisation of relations with 57 Muslim States in return for a comprehensive peace agreement that would include the resolution of outstanding issues.
At the end of the day it boils down to political will and serious commitment to peace. The new US Administration knows that Israel's strategic security has already been ensured by its leadership. It is now time to move on and to demonstrate that stability and peace can be best guaranteed and secured through the flexible process of give and take. This will take the oxygen out of the fire of extremism and terrorism that haunts the Levant and the Holy Land.
It would be pertinent to conclude by referring here to Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad's recent statement in London- "Ours is a political conflict and it requires a political solution. Focussing on so-called economic peace instead of actual peace simply will not cut it". Israel must also understand that it cannot bomb its way to a solution.
Muhammad Zamir is a former secretary and ambassador, and advisor to Awami League.
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