Is America in decline?
Photo by Tom Le Goff
Johan Galtung, a Norwegian sociologist, determines that decline and fall of an empire starts when, amongst other things, it begins to anger a lot of people in the periphery, who are the ones being exploited. He also cites other factors, including lack of balance, a foundation of endless expansion and exploitation, falling apart of infrastructure, and a certain material laziness in a nonproductive elite which finds it easier to buy or steal goods than produce them. The American Empire is already showing some of these symptoms. Is America in decline then? Is it then ready to fall? George McGovern, a former US senator and Democratic nominee for president in 1972, made an impassioned appeal to Barack Obama last week. What McGovern said fairly resonates with Galtung's hypothesis. The United States has pissed off a lot of people and it needs to turn back before things get worse. Hence, these are his suggestions to the newly elected president, Democrat to Democrat. Don't send troops from Iraq to Afghanistan, jumping from frying pan into fire. Don't try to put Afghanistan aright with military force. Withdraw troops from Iraq, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and elsewhere. Close the US military bases in that region. Because all of these combined with the American support for Israel have generated a lot of anger, which drives the terrorist impulse against the United States. Then he reminded Obama of what the invasion of Afghanistan did to the British Empire and the Russians. The war in Iraq has already cost more than 3 trillion dollars, and it has weakened the US economy and its armed forces while the national debt alarmingly soared. US energy and resources could be better spent to foster education and nutrition programs for women, infants and children around the world, said McGovern. That, of course, is a different consideration altogether. But it doesn't change the inevitable truth: sooner or later all empires come to an end and the old cedes place to the new. The Romans ceded place to Franks and Gauls, and in the longer run, to the Carolingians. The Caliphate of Cordova was curved out in Spain after the Abbasids of Baghdad defeated the Umayyad Arab Empire of Damascus. The Byzantine Empire yielded to the triumphant Ottomans, and Spain to the Italian city-states and to the UK. The Ottomans gave in to Russia, and to the Habsburgs and UK/France. Then, the UK and Russia's successor, the Soviet Empire, caved in to the US. In China, the Ch'ing dynasty was temporarily weakened by a cabal of European nations, but eventually yielded to the Kuomintang dynasty, which in turn yielded to the Communists. If rise is warp and fall is weft, history is what they weave on the loom of time. So, if the US once rose, its fall is only a matter of time. But to whom is the US going to yield if it falls, when it does? Charles A. Kupchan, a professor of international relations at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, disputes the predictions of such optimists as Francis Fukuyama and Thomas Friedman, who believe that democracy and globalisation are great panaceas. He also refutes pessimists such as Samuel Huntington who foresees a "clash of civilisations." Instead, Kupchan reckons it will be similar to what happened in the 19th century when the reigning Great Britain fell behind the rising United States in the race for world power. This time, Kupchan says, it will be America's turn to watch as Europe takes over. Can Obama reverse history already set in motion? Can he rescue it from the dwindling hands of destiny? Will he be able to raise American prestige around the world to its post-World War II height, when it was looked upon as a benevolent power, friend of the oppressed and the huddled masses seeking shelter from their ruthless rulers? Will America regain its reputation of the sixties when its Peace Corps promoted goodwill in distant lands? The biggest challenge is to restore that American position which inspired hope and freedom. Today's America looks more like a playground bully than the leader of the free world. With its unrestrained zeal to push its own brand of liberalism and democracy, America likens to Peter the Great of Russia, a typical despot who forced men to wear their clothes and shave their beards in a certain style which he preferred. How much time has America got? Kupchan believes it could be sooner than we thought, because history is moving much more quickly than before since the world in this digital age is likely to go into fast-forward. The question isn't whether America is in decline. The question is how soon it will fall, whether things move from Washington to Brussels, or go in another direction.
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