The public faces of power
DR. Manmohan Singh is the Abdul Kalam of politics: both are admired among the middle classes for decency, integrity, education, and achievement in their preferred discipline. Sometimes it takes a tragedy like ill health to evoke emotion, and the response in the urban areas to the prime minister's hospitalisation must have come as a bit of shock to the Congress Party, which had convinced itself that Sonia Gandhi was its only mass leader and Rahul Gandhi the only possible heir. Dr. Singh today is far more popular than the Congress president among the middle class.
But this popularity is hedged with a problem: there is what might be called insufficient ownership of their identity among voters. Christians do identify with Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, but in demographic terms they are too small and too thinly spread. Dr. Singh has never been a conventional politician from Punjab, while Muslims do not really think of Dr. Kalam as one of their own. But they are icons of an emerging, non-sectarian India that will come into its own, electorally, five or ten years later.
Their support is largely among the young. It is a foolish notion that youth only wants youth. The young want someone who can offer a future. Age is incidental, neither an asset nor a liability. Both Dr. Singh and Dr. Kalam are in their 70s. Ability, backed up by a successful track record, is essential. Tomorrow's electorate will vote on merit, not reservation.
That is going to be a problem for the Congress, which cannot think outside hereditary reservation when it comes to a post-Manmohan prime minister. On the eve of going to hospital Dr. Singh nominated his senior-most colleague in the cabinet, Pranab Mukherjee, as the person who would stand in for him during the crucial hours under anaesthesia and for the period of his
convalescence.
It seems that Sonia Gandhi was unable to live with the minimalist necessity of Mukherjee becoming the public face of government at the Republic Day parade and functions. This would mean sending a signal that Mukherjee was the natural successor to Dr. Singh. Instructions were amended and the public face of power was distributed into a Picasso duality.
Defence Minister A.K. Antony was given the high-profile presence at the Republic Day parade. He had one specific virtue. He is not a declared player in the prime minister stakes, a race that will open the moment the results of this year's general elections are announced. Pranab Mukherjee, on the other hand, is going to be an enthusiastic participant.
Dr. Singh was not playing favourites when he named Mukherjee to stand in for him. Mukherjee has carried this government through some difficult challenges in the past four years. The Left wanted him as president instead of Pratibha Patil. He wanted the job as well. But Sonia Gandhi rejected the proposal.
Dr. Singh's medical condition is a clear setback for the Congress, and will prevent him from campaigning vigorously. This is an election for his job. The Congress, and the UPA, might need to offer a number two even if the number one remains in place. Rahul Gandhi has not acquired the gravitas necessary for the job, and those with gravitas do not seem acceptable to Sonia Gandhi because they would be a threat to her son's ambitions. Sharad Pawar, for instance, has already indicated that there is no reason why he cannot lead the alliance.
If Dr. Singh is the Kalam of politics, can Kalam become the Manmohan Singh of the future? The thought must have occurred to someone. There is already talk that if the verdict of this year's general election is fractured, then someone like Kalam could be offered leadership of a national government. This is probably far-fetched, but stranger things have happened. Who expected Dr. Singh to become prime minister?
On a more realistic note, the Kalam projection is an over-stretch. The NDA has the advantage of clarity on who would be prime minister if it got the numbers, which is L.K. Advani. There is an "if" hanging over every destiny, which is what makes Indian democracy the most fascinating exercise in international politics. No election is a mirror of the other.
The mood needs to shift only marginally to create new configurations in the kaleidoscope. Aspirations might solidify into ambition if a regional party does exceptionally well, and the BJP under-performs. In Bihar, Nitish Kumar might even woo the Muslim voter by implying that if he gets enough seats, he could be the NDA nominee for prime minister.
The field is open until the home stretch, when the numbers will tell us which horse is the winner.
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