Friendship train
Sign of the times.Photo: AFP
WHAT event last week was the most important sign of where Bangladesh-India relations are heading and what this means for the future? Significant as it was, it wasn't the much-heralded visit of the Indian foreign minister: it was the signing of Bangladeshi paceman Mashrafe Mortaza to a $600,000 contract by the Kolkata Knight Riders. Let me explain. Even with the new government in office for less than a month, it is already becoming apparent what form the coming legislative and rhetorical showdown between it and the opposition will take. There will continue to be minor ruckuses over seats in parliament and this policy or that policy, but it is now clear that the principle ground upon which the BNP will choose to launch its major offensive of the year against the government will be the tried and tested issue of India. This was foreshadowed in the election campaign when, running out of ammunition and behind in the polls in the final few weeks of the campaign, the BNP once again played the India card. This has been an effective electoral and rhetorical strategy since the 1970s and has been a corner-stone of the BNP's electoral success over the past 30 years. Conventional wisdom has it that this time around the voters were not impressed with the alarmist rhetoric, and the fact that the BNP was offering the same scare tactics of old rather than forward looking solutions was part of the reason the party was so thoroughly rejected at the polls. However, the truth is that it isn't clear at all whether the India card has lost its potency as an issue, and, if the histrionics surrounding the visit of the Indian foreign minister are any indication, the BNP appears to fancy its chances banging this drum one last time. But the difference is that this time, instead of running from the fight, the AL is preparing to stand its ground and defend its India policy. It could, of course, lose its nerve at the last minute, as has happened in the past, but early indications are that the government believes that the nation is ready for a mature debate on the merits and that BNP demagoguery on the issue won't work this time. Our problematic relationship with India remains one of the biggest challenges any Bangladesh government must deal with, an obstacle to everything from our signing on to the Trans-Asian Highway to regional energy co-operation to our receptivity towards foreign investment. In its own right, agreements on issues such as transit or use of Bangladeshi port facilities for goods from India's north-east to expanding trade opportunities with that region, that could be accomplished through better relations with India, would more than pay for themselves. Not only that, but the continuing irritants in the relationship from our perspective, from border issues to market access to water sharing are all issues that could be resolved far more satisfactorily through co-operation rather than confrontation. The tide may be turning internationally, as well. Until recently, the BNP always enjoyed the advantage that, except for India, it was better thought of overseas than the AL, particularly in Washington. Today, this palpably seems not to be the case. Part of this is to do with comparing the fortunes of India and Pakistan. With Pakistan all but imploding and India well on the way to becoming a major player on the world stage, closeness to Pakistan and hostility to India is no longer a reassuring proposition. Most important is the change in the US position. Deny it though they might, there was no mistaking the pro-BNP tilt of successive US ambassadors and administrations. But today the calculus appears to be quite different. How will the BNP react to the shifting sands? One solution is to reinvent itself as the party of hyper-nationalism, economic protectionism, making its stand on issues such as coal and gas export and opposition to the World Bank and IMF. Certainly there is a constituency inside the county for such a party. But such a shift towards the nationalist wing of the party will cause fissures in the pro-business and pro-western wing of the party, and, moreover, in these days of globalisation, one wonders how effective the BNP can be as a party if it chooses to pursue the path of insularity and isolationism. It would almost certainly be better, both for the party as well as the country, if the BNP decided against taking such a tack. There are many more fruitful approaches it could take to oppose the current government and draw a distinction, but all indications are that it thinks that this particular line of attack is a winner. It is worth noting that there have been two major stories in the past week in the international media, one in Time magazine and one in the International Herald Tribune, focusing on Bangladesh's relationship with India. Indeed, in his IHT column, Philip Bowring points out: "For Bangladesh, there are pressing economic reasons to escape from old notions that cooperation will lead to Indian dominance ... [W]ith garment exports and worker remittances now vulnerable to the global crisis, realism needs to supplant the politicking which has frustrated economic relations with fast-growing India." The rules of the game are changing, and the AL is betting that good relations with India will both reap economic benefits and be popular with the voters, and that, in today's globalised world, that a more co-operative relationship will stand us in good stead on the world stage. This is where Mashrafe's signing with the Knight Riders comes in. Today, Bangladeshis are looking for a more open, friendly, and mutually respectful relationship with India, and the surest sign of this new relationship is Mashrafe's recognition in India. Already Bangladeshis are looking at India a little differently and vice versa. When we look back in a few years we may well see Mashrafe's signing as the moment when things began to change for the better, and the bilateral relationship began moving to a more equal and mutually beneficial footing. Once upon a time it was hoped that the Moitree Express, the friendship train between Dhaka and Kolkata, would lead the way towards better relations. That hasn't worked out. But where the Moitree Express failed, I am confident that the Narail Express will succeed.
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