Landmark change in Pakistan
IT was the moral strength of the civil society mobilisation to restore Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry that peacefully brought President Zardari to his knees. The agitation has broken the fear barrier. This is a historic gain.
Repressive measures against the lawyers' Long March proved useless. The police didn't obey orders to prevent the march, and the government was forced to announce that it would restore Mr. Chaudhry and other deposed judges and appeal the recent order disqualifying the Sharif brothers.
People's power has won out in Pakistan -- for the third time since end-2007. This gives the lie to the proposition that that Pakistani democratic aspirations have been blunted by Islam and/or long years of military rule.
Several processes mediated the government's climb-down; army chief Kiyani's meetings with Zardari, Gilani and Sharif, and calls by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, special envoy Richard Holbrooke, and UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband. Clinton reportedly threatened to cut off aid to Pakistan.
Zardari resisted restoring the deposed judges until it became plain that his authority would totally collapse unless he agreed to a solution based on the 2006 Charter of Democracy between Benazir Bhutto and Sharif.
This shows that Pakistan's power centres are neither fully civilian nor internal; its crisis cannot be resolved with its own political resources.
Hopefully, the March 16 breather will revive Pakistan's democratic institutions.
This is a tall order. The parties that have gained the most from the Long March are Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), Jamaat-i-Islami and Imran Khan's Tehreek-i-Insaf. These are right-of-centre, with sympathies for religious extremism and reservations about combating the Taliban.
Whether they can be accommodated into Pakistan's power structures, and how various individuals act, will determine whether Pakistan becomes a democracy with legitimacy, or descends into chaos.
Justice Chaudhry has emerged as a symbol of judicial integrity because he stood against President Musharraf's November 2007 Provisional Constituted Order (PCO) to declare emergency and dismiss judges.
This is no small irony. Chaudhry was himself sworn in as a Supreme Court judge in 2000 under another PCO! He validated Gen Musharraf's military takeover and the 17th Amendment.
To his credit, Chaudhry changed and became a defender of judicial independence to the point of promoting activism. Musharraf was alarmed at his investigation into the sale of a state-owned steel mill and some 500 cases of "mission persons."
The Supreme Court under him must not fight shy of inquiring into the "missing persons" cases. Many of them were suspected jehadi militants or separatists, rounded up without proper investigation or charges.
Nawaz Sharif's stock has risen to a point where people might forget his tainted past. By available indications, US would like him to be accommodated in the central power structure so that he's "inside the tent." This must be done in a dignified, democratic way.
This means the US must be more responsive to Pakistani sensibilities while carrying out drone and missile attacks.
Sharif has to play a statesman-like role and honour the Charter of Democracy, which says that neither the PPP nor the PML will resort to military or external mediation to resolve differences, and set up a national judicial commission to appoint judges.
This Charter has been violated repeatedly. Zardari merely imitated Musharraf in packing the courts. The solution isn't to discard the charter, but to implement it honestly with an expansive vision and willingness to build democratic consensus.
Zardari has emerged mauled from the Long March stand-off. His over-reach has further eroded his authority. Worse, he has tried to undermine his own party. He had no organisational/political relationship with the PPP till his wife was killed.
As PPP co-chairperson, he has marginalised or banished every major leader, including Makhdoom Amin Fahim, lawyers' movement leader Aitzaz Ahsan, Leader of the House Raza Rabbani, and Benazir Bhutto confidants Nahid Khan, Safdar Abbassi and Sherry Rehman. A question-mark now hangs over his ability to govern Pakistan. But he's still playing devious games with the PML(Q)'s help. The PPP should immediately replace him. If the NRO is struck down, that will make untenable his continuation as a politician -- even without constitutional office.
Pakistan's altered political equations spell new contestations and instability. The central question is whether the democratisation process consolidates itself to a point where Pakistan is better able to tackle its multiple and structural crises, combat jehadi extremism, and build stronger civilian institutions.
The whole world has a vital stake in Pakistan's sustained evolution towards democracy. If Pakistan succeeds, the world will gain immensely; so will the cause of moderation in Islamic societies. If Pakistan descends into chaos, it will become the world's primary fountainhead of extremism, terror, and Taliban-style brutishness.
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