Two-state solution of the Palestinian problem

Several factors have been intertwined keeping in mind the sensitivities of the problem related to the political, security, economic, humanitarian and institution-building fields. As reported in the press, the 'road-map' was formulated under the auspices of the Quartet constituted of the United States, the European Union, United Nations and Russia.

This plan has been publicised as being consistent with what President Bush had earlier mentioned in his speech of 24 June. It may be recalled that at a time a 'final destination' and a 'comprehensive settlement' of the issue were earmarked to be completed by 2005. Subsequent Quartet Ministerial statements of 16 July and 17 September had, it may be mentioned, welcomed the proposal.

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The settlement proposal has several favourable elements built into it. The question is whether the steps can be or will be completed, as required, by both parties.

It has been pointed out in the 'road-map' for a two-state solution that an end to the conflict can only be achieved through an end to violence and terrorism. Emphasis has been placed on the Palestinian people and their leadership acting decisively against terror and being willing and able to build a practicing democracy based on tolerance and liberty.

However, something more important appears to have been said in the press statement issued by the office of the Spokesman of the State Department on 30 April. Their comment indicates that such Palestinian action should also, as a parallel track, include 'Israel's readiness to do what is necessary for a democratic Palestinian State to be established'. There lies the first crunch.

Similarly, both parties have been urged to make 'a clear, unambiguous acceptance... of the goal of a negotiated settlement'. This is also important. It is understood that the Quartet will assist and facilitate the implementation of the plan, starting from Phase I, including direct discussions between the parties as required. It is this area that will ultimately lead to success or failure of this 'roadmap'.

As a performance based plan, progress will 'require and depend upon the good faith efforts' of both parties -- not just Palestine. Ascertaining their compliance with each of the obligations will also pre-suppose complete neutrality of the Quartet. In fact, in cricket terms, representatives of the Quartet will not only have to provide the umpiring, but will also have to be strict referees.

It is the Quartet which can ensure strict compliance with terms and conditions and also consistency as required under international law. This is significant because if the parties perform their obligations rapidly, progress within and through the phases can come sooner than outlined in the 'road map'. However, non-compliance of obligations, already agreed to at the beginning will impede progress.

One feels worried as to whether the powerful Israeli lobby will agree to all that exists within the 'road map' by implication.

The US State Department has indicated that 'a settlement, negotiated between the parties, will result in the emergence of an independent, democratic and viable Palestinian State living side by side in peace and security with Israel and its other neighbours. The settlement will resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and end the occupation that began in 1967, based on the foundations of the Madrid Conference, the principle of land for peace, UN Security Council Resolutions 242, 338 and 1397, agreements previously reached by the parties and the initiative of Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah -- endorsed by the Beirut Arab League Summit -- calling for acceptance of Israel as a neighbour living in peace and security, in the context of a comprehensive settlement'. It is also mentioned that 'this initiative is a vital element of international efforts to promote a comprehensive peace on all tracks, including the Syrian-Israeli and Lebanese-Israeli tracks'.

It is the boldness and the comprehensive nature of the plan that creates hesitation in one's mind as to whether it will be allowed to succeed. With the Jewish lobby so strongly entrenched in Western echelons and bastions of Western power and their media, it will indeed be most surprising if this plan is not scuttled by Israeli interests. It will in fact require great skill on the part of the Arab world in general and Palestine in particular, but they should try to ensure that this approach succeeds. Israel, through various ways might create provocations and try to district the peace process and derail this initiative. Palestine, particularly its radical elements, should avoid these baits however difficult it might be. They must understand that the last thing that Israeli extremist elements want is an independent Palestine State and they will resort to all means to thwart such an end. Israeli officials have already stated that Israeli forces will not be withdrawn from reoccupied Palestinian self-rule areas. Their plea -- "we cannot pull back from these sectors if we don't have a guarantee that terrorist organisations will not take control and organise anti-Israeli attacks which would sabotage any chance of implementing the road map". Well, this will be a test of Quartet's will, and they should not be found wanting.

Today, the contemporary post-war Middle East has given an edge to the Palestinian people and brought sympathy for their cause. In the international psyche, the war in Iraq has drawn attention even more to the Middle East and the need for finding a solution to his long-lasting question. The image of the Coalition countries remain tarnished because no weapons of mass destruction could be found and justifying events in Iraq has become that much more complex. The accusation that the war was after all about oil continues to ring everywhere. At this juncture, resolving the Palestinian question would definitely bring back the lustre for those who went to Iraq. This will also enable these countries to improve their inter-active relationship with those of Old Europe. Now is the time. The Palestinians will be able to enjoy the advantage of reflected interest and sympathy. They need to seize it.

The first phase calls for 'ending terror and violence, normalising Palestinian life and building Palestinian institutions'. Deep down within the Palestinian ethos, there exists great frustration and anger. Inaction on the part of some countries in particular, is responsible for this. Dispossessed of their freedom of movement, of legal revenues, of employment opportunities and of several other normal fundamental rights, their younger generation quite naturally feel that they have nothing to lose and do not hesitate therefore to take most unfortunately their own lives.

This leaning towards violence arises out of a simple fact. They feel that they have no stake. Not having a strong hi-tech armed force, some radical Palestinians are associating themselves with extremist forces. The silent majority of the Palestinian population might want cessation of violence, but quite correctly, such optimism would rely greatly on 'supportive measures' to be undertaken by Israel.

The Tenet work plan is a good exercise. However, for its success, additional resources will be required. Only then, the Quartet can create eventually a 'restructured and effective Palestinian security service' that can uphold political reform. Drafting of a Palestinian Constitution, ensuring free and fair elections will help, but basic financial support is a must. Unfreezing of Palestinian funds now held by Israel will help. Restoration of normalcy is the sine qua non and it rests in Israeli hands.

If there is no freedom of movement, how can there be canvassing for a free election? If institutions in place, funded with scarce resources from the EU are regularly bulldozed over, then it becomes that much more difficult to start a process.

Israel can help, as a first step by withdrawing from Palestinian areas occupied since 28 September, 2000. The status quo that existed before this date needs to return.

However, at the same time the enlarged and new Palestinian leadership should also take steps to stop attacks on Israeli civilians. Probably, an open and unequivocal declaration by Israel that it is freezing all settlement activity, consistent with the Mitchell Report can help. The US Middle East envoy William Burns' statement after his recent meeting in Ramallah with the new Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmud Abbas was special. He has asked Israel to "alleviate the suffering of Palestinians in reoccupied areas" and freezing construction of Jewish settlements in Palestinian territories. Added to this will be the onus under the plan to remove more than 60 illegal Israeli outposts. If Israel does so, they would have seized the real opportunity that exists today.

Practical steps need to be taken by Israel, and the general Palestinian population have to see for themselves dividends of peace, of having an enlarged, diversified Palestinian Administration. Only then will a stake emerge whereby alleged terrorist acts will lose support. This is the fundamental equation.

The Quartet also needs to understand that peace and success in the Palestinian track can and may be impeded if neighbouring Syria feels left out. It is in this context that one feels worried when the Syrian offer, conveyed by Maher Assad, involving mutual confidence-building steps alongwith a renewal of negotiations with Israel is rejected straight away by Israel. A concerted international peace cannot be brokered on the basis of selected objectives. The US Administration, at least their State Department understands this. Now they should try to convince Israel.

Security and feeling secure are both mental and physical. However, ignoring basic human rights and international humanitarian law will be a fatal flaw. Israel and Palestine have both come a long way since the dark, unfortunate events of Deir Yassen that took place on April 9, 1948. Long and protracted negotiations will not necessarily yield positive results. Support by some countries for Israel's high military profile will also not help them to gain credibility for their efforts being undertaken within other parts of the Muslim world. Time has also similarly come for the leadership of that area to assess future strategy on the basis of the new dynamics.

The people who inhabit the region are monotheistic and share their Prophets. In these troubled times, let their people come together and share peace, prosperity and freedom. Both sides must understand that this is not about public relations but one that proposes hard progress forward out of a contentious predicament.

Muhammad Zamir is a former Secretary and Ambassador.