St. Petersberg, Evian and Jordan

First it is the 300th Anniversary of St. Petersberg, birthplace of the current occupant of Kremlin. A very select group of leaders of countries, powerful and not so powerful, assembled under the glittering chandeliers of the city, that used to be the capital of the powerful Czars of Russia. Amidst champagne in beautiful crystal glasses and beautifully illuminated stage the long legged Ballerina of Russia performed. Behind all this spectacular festivity, serious diplomatic activity was in progress. Thus host Vladimir Putin put up a brilliant show of fence mending with his special guest George Bush President of the USA. Their strain due to Iraq appeared to be a thing of the past and Putin nodded agreement when President Bush invited him to the USA.

For Vladimir Putin the question that overrides everything else is to gain equal status with his powerful rival, the US, with whom Soviet Union shared the world stage on an equal basis.

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Thus among the guests at the festivities were present the leaders of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). These are nearly a dozen Turkic states who emerged as Independent states following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990. This was a severe blow to the Soviet Union as she saw a large chunk of her empire slip away. The Soviet Union was not like another state. It was based on a distinct ideology and had a world wide reach. To this day Russia is trying to come to terms with this excruciating experience.

Russia has been trying her utmost to build a special relationship with CIS. It is therefore no wonder that at the festivities in St. Petersberg these CIS states received special treatment.

On the world stage Russia continues to maintain the posture of special relationship with the US by virtue of her size, resources and particularly her military might. Of course the passage from command economy to market economy is a very painful one. In the meantime the US continues to treat Russia with silken gloves. In any case both Russia and the US have buried the hatchet growing out of the war in Iraq. Given the size of the two giants, they have no other choice.

The other major encounter in St. Petersberg was between President Bush and President Jacques Chirac of France. During the debate within the Security Council President Bush was deeply angered by the French threat to veto the Security Council resolution to attack Iraq. Since then much water has flown down the Tigris. The leaders of the US and France met and the media spent a lot of time about the length of the handshake and if there had been eye contact or not. Since the leaders have to deal with the realities of the moment, they prefer to let bygones be bygones.

The relation between France and the US is on a different level. Whereas the US continues with the trappings of a Superpower, France can be no match. Yet the truth is that France speaks in the name of the emerging powerhouse, European Union (EU). We live in a world where everything is in a state of flux. Since 11 September 2001, US has lost her superpower status and there is a great power void throughout the world. Thus US continues to live under the illusion that she is the sole superpower, whereas it is really a multipoler world. The pushing and shoving that we have witnessed in the recent past is a manifestation of this phenomenon.

At Evian in France, where G8 has just met, it is an altogether different G8. Along with the eight highly industrialized countries of the world have been present countries from Asia and Africa. France, a former colonial power in Africa, has been cultivating for long establishment of influence in the African continent. Thus we saw a large number of African leaders. All this demonstrates that multipolarism is the order of the day. In all this hullabaloo, we are apt to forget that it was Iraq, her huge oil reserve and her stand against Israel, that triggered the crisis in which the world finds itself. It is perfectly possible that the big powers will hand over this matter to the UN. The US-British attempt to set up a credible administration has not met with much success so far.

From Evian President Bush proceeds to Egypt followed by a trip to Jordan, where he would play the role of peacemaker between Palestine and Israel. Under President Bush's leadership Mahmud Abbas, the newly appointed Prime Minister of Palestine and Ariel Sharon, the Prime Minister of Israel would try their hand at finding a solution to their long festering dispute. With Bill Clinton there was more than a glimmer of hope. Clinton had succeeded for the first time to be perfectly evenhanded towards the Palestinians and the Israelis. The antipathy of President Bush towards the Palestinians and sympathy towards the Israelis are well known. How he can mediate is the big question.

When President Bush sits down at his Camp David retreat, he will have time to reflect on the gains and losses of this trip. Hopefully sooner rather than later, he will have to accept that the Unipolar world is gone for ever.

Arshad-uz-Zaman is a former Ambassador.