Slight thaw in India-Pakistan relations

Having two nuclear powers totally at unease with each other has not helped. A graded missile race has also cast its own shadow on the more than one billion people who inhabit this region.

It was as such a most welcome gesture when in April the Indian Prime Minister expressed his desire to ease relations with Pakistan. This was followed immediately after with a telephone call on 28 April by the Pakistan Prime Minister. This reciprocity was indeed significant given the total break-down situation for the last year and half. This has permitted cautious optimism to creep into the scenario.

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The other encouraging aspect has been President Musharraf's suggestion that if India-Pakistan talks were to resume, 'victory would be neither mine nor Prime Minister Vajpayee's. It would be the victory of negotiation and dialogue'. At the same time, the Pakistan Prime Minister has also gone on record saying that Pakistan, if necessary, would walk 'the extra mile'. In addition to all these statements has been the crucial assertion by the Pakistan Foreign Minister that the 'army and the military Inter-Services-Intelligence of Pakistan also supports the recent flurry of exchanges between the two rivals'. Fortunately, by implication, efforts are being made to avoid one-upmanship.

What is required now is confidence building between these neighbours. From that point of view, the Indian decision to restore diplomatic ties and air-links with Pakistan will be helpful steps. This will assist and facilitate the process. However, both countries now need to take a step back and carefully plan future approaches. This time round, they should try to do it right.

Since July 2001, recriminations have flown across the border of these two countries. The national mind-sets have hardened over perceived points of interest with regard to each other's security needs. Now is the time to listen to friends in the immediate region as well as from further away. It is only discussion and dialogue that can pave the way forward, not coercive diplomacy. South Asian countries have watched with care and witnessed the disappointment that followed the encouraging bus journey of Vajpayee to Lahore in February 1999 and President Musharraf's visit to Agra in July 2001.

The important thing today is that these two countries appear to be going back to the state of bilateral relations that had existed prior to the terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament and are now at least exploring the possibility of setting in motion a dialogue process. Punitive measures put in place since then will possibly be slowly rolled back. There is now a glint of sunshine in the horizon.

The immediate reaction of Vajpayee to Jamali's invitation suggests that the Indian leadership is not going to be rushed into talks. They are going to proceed slowly. There is no harm in this. In fact, in a way this is constructive. In a letter addressed to the Pakistan Prime Minister, Vajpayee has, as expected, stressed that a conducive atmosphere for dialogue is required. Through this, it has been indicated that 'alleged cross-border terrorism and dismantling of terrorist infrastructure' by Pakistan would help. What is important is that the Indian Prime Minister responded in writing. He might have told the Indian Parliament that 'Pakistan's Prime Minister has invited me. I did not accept it. I don't want to say anything further'. Facts however imply that India is willing to make official-level contact with Pakistan on talks, but an interaction at the highest level is probably right now not in the cards.

India possibly wants a step-by-step engagement. This means that India will agree to preparatory contacts at the level of senior officials within a few weeks to do the initial spadework like setting an agenda and working out dates and venues for subsequent meetings. As it customary, the subsequent step will, in all likelihood, be at the level of foreign secretaries of both countries. They will try to review modalities and prepare the ground for talks between their respective Foreign Ministers. It is only after the meetings of the two Foreign Ministers that both sides will feel comfortable enough to convene a Summit between their Prime Ministers.

These are particularly sensitive times and the engagement of US Secretary of State Colin Powell and his Deputy Armitage will bring much needed encouragement to both parties. Recent developments between these two countries have delighted the United States Administration which played a pivotal role in heading off in recent times the prospect of a disastrous war between the two nuclear-armed rivals who both had their fingers on the trigger button. The US has been applying firm pressure for months to persuade India and Pakistan to return from the brink of confrontation. One can only hope that the US will now engage itself fully in nurturing the path to peace and promoting better understanding.

The US Administration has a unique advantage as both these countries prize their relationship with Washington as the centre-piece of their foreign policy. Of the two, India sees itself as the natural ally of the US because of its common democratic heritage with Washington and its growing economic and hi-tech relationship with US companies. Its diaspora has also emerged with enhanced influence in domestic US politics. Pakistan has also gained a special niche because of her open support for the US led war on terror in Afghanistan. This has made this country a strategic ally of the United States.

Leaderships in both these countries are hostages to the Kashmir question. Pakistan continues to assert that they are seriously seeking 'a peaceful resolution of all disputes and differences, especially the core dispute over Kashmir'. This of course is a sticking point. It will take vision and courage to find a solution, but till that takes place, there are various areas which could benefit through people-to-people contact.

It has been reported in the press that the Pakistan-India People's Forum for Peace and Democracy has undertaken a visit to India and some of its members included Pakistani parliamentarians. They discussed informally peace and democracy with some of their Indian counterparts. I believe that this exercise will be helpful. It is the right kind of brick to place in the edifice of cooperation.

We perhaps need to re-read our history once again. As an initial step, the leadership of India and Pakistan could agree on the resumption of their sports links. Cricket and field hockey are admired and played in both countries. Flexibility could restore matches and also improve their respective competitive edges vis-à-vis other playing nations.

It was reassuring in this context to see our Government welcoming the current initiative between these two countries. Foreign Minister Khan has correctly described this as 'constructive' and an example of 'maturity' in respective leaderships. Bangladesh as a firm believer in peace in South Asia has always under every Administration, lent its support for easing of tension between Pakistan and India. We strongly believe that South Asia is an area of promise where suitable steps can help generate economic well being for its impoverished, unfortunate peoples.

As anticipated, the UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has also hailed the easing of India-Pakistan tensions and expressed hopes that the current steps will lead to the strengthening of peace and stability in the "entire South Asian region."

This perspective of the UN Secretary General is very important and crucial if there is going to be any notable success within the SAARC framework. We have already seen the postponement of the scheduled SAARC Summit and this has definitely affected the morale of the SAARC Secretariat. One can only hope that recent changes in the thinking of the Indian and Pakistani leaderships will also have a beneficial fallout for the SAARC process. We must try and avoid weakening this Institution any further.

SAARC has to be taken more seriously by its members if it is to be considered as an important partner in the international scene. There exists today a MOU between the European Union (European Commission being the lead Agency in this regard) and SAARC and yet, inter-action between these two Institutions hardly takes place. The European Commission has decided to open a Delegation in Kathmandu, the Headquarters of SAARC, but considers SAARC and its structure as weak compared to ASEAN. They, like others discern the absence of a strong political will, and one can hardly blame them.

Now is the time for all of us in South Asia to establish a true inter-active framework. This alone will create the win-win situation for all of us. We have to see what is happening in South East Asia, Latin America and Europe. Efforts are underway there to come together and face the more serious problems of disease and difficulties in trade. Opening of borders has resulted not only in free-flow of goods but also in the cross-fertilisation of ideas. Discussion has been knowledge in the making for them.

Muhammad Zamir is a former Secretary and Ambassador.