Storm signal in Pakistan

Four years ago the Chief of Army Staff Gen. Pervez Musharraf seized power from the elected Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and sent him to exile in Saudi Arabia. Another powerful political personality, Benazir Bhutto, daughter of the hanged President Zulfiquar Ali Bhutto, herself twice Prime Minister, lives in exile in London and Dubai. She has been threatened with jail should she return to Pakistan.

Under US and Western prodding Gen. Musharraf has been trying to democratise his administration. Through elections, he has created a new National Assembly, where his handpicked Prime Minister Jamali has a majority. According to the constitution framed by the General, he can at will send the Assembly packing. The problem that Gen. Musharraf is finding very difficult to handle is the rising chorus against his holding the twin posts of President and Chief of the Army Staff. In the coup prone politics of Pakistan Gen. Musharraf has the example of Field Marshal Ayub Khan, who ruled Pakistan for a decade. He too held the twin posts as long as possible and finally handed over the post of Chief of Staff of the Army to his very loyal General Musa. Finally Gen. Musa had to be replaced by Gen. Yahya Khan. Ayub was forced to hand over power to Gen. Yahya because his illness had made the situation difficult and the rising tide of discontent in both the then East Pakistan and West Pakistan made it more so.

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Gen. Musharraf is aware that the armed forces is his most important constituency as it has been for his predecessors Gen. Ayub Khan, Gen. Yahya Khan and others. He is faced with the dilemma of keeping his post of President but divesting himself of his most powerful post, the Chief of Army Staff. Since he has traveled a long way towards the democratisation process it is difficult to see how he can retain the Army job. The politicians sensing that they have the President in their grip are piling on the pressure. While Pakistan's Parliament was due to meet for the Budget session, the opposition threatened to stop the passage of the Budget, creating a full blown crisis. In the opposition there is a curious mix of religious and secular parties. Jamali's Government was elected in October last after three years of direct military rule. The result of the elections is a hung parliament inspite of charges that the elections were manipulated by the government. It is worth recalling that pandemonium broke loose within the Parliament last April with opposition shouting "Musharraf go".

Amidst such rowdy scenes in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, developments in Peshawar, the capital of NWFP, will cause severe headache to Gen. Musharraf. This large area of Pakistan, bordering Afghanistan has a lot in common with the Afghans. They in most part belong to the same ethnic variety, speak the same language Pushtoo and indeed have blood ties. During the war against the Soviet Union, the war was masterminded from Peshawar as weapons were stockpiled near Peshawar and the Soviet forces withdrew after a humiliating defeat in the late eighties. The Afghan misadventure was the principal reason for the cataclysmic event -- the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The withdrawal of the Soviet forces from Kabul, left a power void in Kabul, which was filled by the Taliban regime, masterminded by the ISI, the shadowy intelligence outfit of Pakistan. The Taliban perpetrated atrocities in the name of Islam. Indeed it made a caricature of Islam. Osama Bin Laden, the Saudi millionaire, who had started a war against the US, after serving them in Afghanistan, had taken refuge in the safe sanctuary of the Taliban regime in Kabul. In retaliation for the massive blow suffered by the US within her own territory (this led to the fall of the US from the superpower pedestal) allegedly masterminded by Bin Laden, the US started destroying the Taliban regime. There was a remarkable reversal of role for Pakistan, in order to break out of her isolation she joined hands with the US in ousting her own creation Taliban from power.

Facing massive bombardment the Taliban took flight and in all likelihood many took refuge with their kith and kin in the Pakistan tribal areas. And interestingly the Provincial Assembly in Peshawar has voted in favour of Sharia. It must be noted that the Taliban went much further than what is sanctioned by Sharia. Their behaviour pattern with their women and the destruction of the Buddhist statue in Bamian are two glaring examples. Yet it must be noted that in the entire Islamic world of 57 nations, Sharia is practiced only in Saudi Arabia.

Pakistan for long has been advocating Islamisation of her society. Every dictator who has grabbed power, every political leader of any consequence, has preached vociferously the desire to Islamise the polity. Thus many banks have taken to Sharia system of banking and Pakistan has loudly proclaimed that it was established on the basis of Islam. In Pakistan, however, there is a sizeable population who believe in modern way of life and indeed they had a lady Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. It is difficult to conceive how Sharia laws can be made mandatory throughout Pakistan. In Peshawar a clear challenge has been thrown at the leadership in Islamabad to choose the path of Sharia. This is a difficult choice for the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. It would seem that the Taliban, which sprang from Peshawar has returned home after its misadventure in Kabul.

Gen. Pervez Musharraf, who seized power in 1999, appears to have more than his share of trouble. In this situation fraught with imponderables, it is difficult to see how a modus vivendi can be worked out with India. Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee gave a clear signal of thaw couple of months ago by his 'hand of friendship' speech. After the resumption of diplomatic and other relations, it appears that both sides have a tacit understanding to wait and watch. That appears to be a sound path.

With the turmoil taking place inside the National Assembly in Islamabad and storm clouds appearing in Peshawar, the Pakistan establishment may be tempted once again to try the tested medicine -- a further dose of military rule with or without Gen. Pervez Musharraf.

Arshad-uz-Zaman is a former Ambassador.