Doha development agenda and the Cancun ministerial

The scenario has assumed significance given the fact that a queue of countries are today waiting WTO membership. Added to this is the complexity of coming American elections and a new European Commission in 2004. All these factors require that the Doha Round start showing results before summer next year. This is necessary, and it is this factor that necessitates that the forthcoming Cancun Ministerial not be seen as a point of either success or failure. It needs to be perceived more as a stock-taking exercise in a highly complex negotiation.

The problem, in a world of increasing unpredictability but intertwined destinies is how to structure the future of a global economy and establish fair rules for all nations, large and small. The answer lies in strengthening multilateralism and keeping it alive. This is the only way to maintain lasting world peace. Multilateral solutions are required to tackle economic slowdown, with enhanced market access to help the poorest countries participate in a multilateral trading system.

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The WTO, we must understand, in its own way is trying to enhance international understanding. Just like the EU, the WTO has embarked upon a dynamic enlargement programme, with more than 20 nations, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, lining up to join the current 144 Member States.

However, during this ongoing evolution of dynamics, the focal point continues to be the challenge of the Doha Round Agenda and the need to pull together issues such as manufacturing, agriculture and rural development, as well as dealing with Uruguay Round leftovers.

Solutions need to be found to these questions and preferably by the end of 2004. Doha was a very multifaceted agenda, with market access still the main issue. Getting rid of quotas, looking at high tariffs (still up to 40 per cent in some cases), and addressing the rules issue were paramount.

It may be recalled that the four major areas of Doha Round discussion were market access, rules, development related issues and implementation. Development issues posed a particular problem with the 49 LDCs that had little to trade and claimed a total world trade share of only about 0.4 percent. It was also understood that the situation was not hopeful, unless Doha got a grip on labour-intensive industries, such as agriculture and textiles.

Implementation has also assumed certain difficulties. Contributory factors have been the application of existing commitments entered into under the Uruguay Round but not yet applied for various reasons, including the recent financial crisis in Asia, the general economic downturn or problems in some WTO countries with parliamentary procedures. This has been one of the most thorny issues because of the attempted extension of 'geographical indicators', a protection still demanded by the 'old world' countries and whose end is sought by the 'new world' group of States.

The fifth issue was the Disputes Settlement Understanding Review (DSUR) -- the backbone of WTO work. That review is now due, four years after the DSUR was first applied. The current Director General of WTO Dr Supachai has emphasised recently that more than half of WTO credibility rests on the reliability of the DSUR. It may be noted that there are hundreds of disputes cases pending and the aim of the review is to make the system faster and more efficient, and apply it to environmental issues as well as trade.

Dr Supachai, in a recent meeting, held in Brussels has acknowledged that the WTO has a solid history of missing deadlines. He has tried to explain that this was not for lack of trying and has pointed out that it was not easy to achieve consensus on time, as many countries are involved in negotiations on a wide range of detailed issues. However there appears to be only partial truth in this approach. More can be done and should be done.

It would also be pertinent to note here that agriculture was certainly at the heart of the Doha negotiation. This was because although it only accounted for 10 per cent of world trade, its political weight was seen as being far greater. One can only hope that the peace of progress in the farm negotiations will be expedited. Otherwise, a large part of the WTO process is bound to be affected.

One is tempted to point out that while there has been strong progress in the Services sector, there still remains complicated problems. Sorting out rules issues remains technical and hundreds of cases are still pending on subsidies, fisheries and anti-dumping. Unfortunately, China remains the 'world champion' in the number of alleged rules breaches.

For Cancun to succeed, many impediments will need to be removed. Nonetheless, one should not lose heart. The Cancun Ministerial, it must be understood should not be seen as an end in itself, but simply as part of the Doha Round work programme. Cancun will allow Ministers to take stock of the last two years and establish 'roadmaps' for the remaining part of the Round. One should remember that the purpose of the Doha Round is to use it to help stabilise the global economy. To achieve this, all important groups and some countries will have to work together, particularly the EU and the USA (who have a significant share of global trade and good understanding of world trade issues).

Fortunately, the Iraq war has not affected the desire to develop cooperation. One agrees that managing such a complex trade round remains difficult. Nevertheless, progress will be possible if efforts are made by all parties to balance the need for sectoral negotiations with the desire for a final, overall single package of agreement.

One hopes that the coming months leading to Cancun will see further consolidation in the progress with regard to TRIPS. Many poor nations, particularly in Africa stand to benefit from waiving the trade related intellectual property rights commitment. These countries are facing public health problems with malaria, tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS and they need all the help that they can get. We must understand that the benefits of assisting such countries would extend eventually to the whole world. Today, this project of TRIPS waiver has assumed great value, given the fact that another virus has appeared on our horizon SARS. This round could possibly raise this aspect and discuss as to whether TRIPS could apply equally to countries affected by this new disease.

It would be equally important to note that while the WTO process deals with Governments and also NGOs, it is business which is directly affected by trade negotiations and their decisions. As such it is also important for the business sector to be able to represent their own interests. This has not always been possible. The governments need to appreciate this. We must not forget that up to 70 per cent of GDP and more than 50 per cent of job creation world wide are centred one way or the other on the Services sector, particularly in area like transport, insurance and telecommunications.

Another area that requires to be attended to is the need to regulate non-tariff barriers as well as tariff barriers. This should particularly be part of the non-agricultural negotiation that is currently underway. Dr Supachai has correctly suggested that unless we regulate this area, the emergence of non-tariff barriers will be a future source of more disputes.

Muhammad Zamir is a former Secretary and Ambassador.