Peace decoys

Essentially a product of Nasser's Pan-Arab dream enjoying sanctuary in and support from Egypt the PLO however moved on independently after Egypt's defeat in 1967 to uphold the cause of the Palestinians by defining them as distinct nation by Yasser Arafat who also promised them Palestinian state in the whole length and breadth of historic Palestine. Notwithstanding, spectacular success both on military and diplomatic front, the Arab defeat in 1967, the infamous 'Black September' of 1970 and subsequently the Egyptian recognition of Israel in 1979 dealt PLO a mortal blow. Finally when driven out of its bases in Lebanon following the tragedies of Sabra and Shatilla during the eighties the PLO lost much of its bites and the Palestinian cause was almost lost in the maze of intra-Arab feuds. It was at this crucial juncture that a spontaneous eruption of the first intifada (uprising) took place in late 1987 and continued through early nineties to provide key bargaining chip for Arafat to carry on with his struggle for Palestinian state.

In the face of stiff resistance put up by the young veterans of intifada, Israel for the fist time began to feel the burden of occupation which involved huge cost and also the ignominy. Curiously, the gesture of peace and settlement have always been linked to the show of strength. In hindsight it can be concluded today that the peace process initiated in 1991 Madrid conference, in the backdrop of 'new realities' produced by the demise of cold war which was decisively won by the west, had surely been in response to the Palestinians' growing incalcitrance and aimed at breaking the momentum of intifada. With his loosening grip on the Palestinian movement with the emergence of rival Hamas and Islamic Jihad Arafat had few choices but to step into the trap garbed as peace process when, consequent to Madrid, it was secretly hammered out at Oslo. Even if Oslo peace process failed as it was anticipated earlier by many the objectives of the peace brokers were fully achieved with the signing of first Oslo agreement on the south lawn of White House. So far as the interests of Israel and her allies are concerned it produced miracles. The PLO recognised Israel's right to exist thus removing the last legal hitch of Israel's legitimacy. The nagging scourge of intifada weakened, if not totally removed.

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Now exactly after a decade the same drama is enacted to douse the flame of current uprising, also known as Al-Aqsa intifada sparked by the visit of the holy shrine by Ariel Sharon on 28 September 2000. Ever since the intifada has been raging with unprecedented fury taking its toll of Israeli lives. True, Israel thrashed the Palestinians with its superior war machine and caused them immense suffering but it could achieve neither peace nor security. The Israeli disappointments grew deeper when no amount of repression perpetrated by Israel with the tacit support of the world's sole superpower could cow down the Palestinians. Their stubborn refusal to submit or conform astonished Israel and its friends in the west alike. As the Israeli defence forces wreaked havoc across the occupied lands, the resistance only stiffened, suicide bombings escalated and casualties rose on both sides leading to rethinking of strategy in Washington. The Bush administration realised that the Palestinians should better be engaged with some baits dangled before them. The rethinking has apparently produced the 'road map to peace' that also envisaged the creation of a Palestinian state -- a dream of the Palestinians in Diaspora -- by 2005. What however remains at the core of the gambit is to stop or at least slowdown the Palestinian resistance. It is certainly not the priority of the US or the quartet to deliver a Palestinian state on the platter to the oppressed people of the occupied area.

Edward Said, the American-Palestinian scholar aptly explains why "the road map" has come up as an Oslo peace process came up ten years ago: "Palestinians have refused to capitulate or surrender even under the collective punishment meted out to them by the combined might of the US and Israel. It is this extraordinary reason for the existence of a road map and other previous peace plans, not because the US and Israel and international community have been convinced for humanitarian reasons that the killing and violence must stop. If we miss this truth, we miss everything."

Yet we keep missing the truth. At least the Palestinians could be duped into believing for years that the Oslo process was leading them to their homeland by 1999. When it ended in fiasco while Israel further reinforced its scheme for greater Israel, more Jewish settlements sprouted in occupied areas and the Palestinians' positions were further marginalised, there was no remorse and no explanation was advanced by the peace brokers. Because it was all at the cost of the Palestinians!

When another peace process labelled 'road map to peace' is under way, the whole world is led to believe through an orchestrated media blitz that President Bush, after having cut Iraq to size, is now set on an even-handed treatment of the festering problem of Palestinian-Israeli conflict with the help of his much-touted 'road map'. But even Henry Kissinger finds the document drafted by the US, Russia, the EU and the UN full of imponderables and ambiguities. To him it is not a recipe for resolving Middle East deadlock. Rather it represents a reasonable compromise on general objectives. The goals are stated as if they could be achieved simultaneously by both sides acting more or less autonomously.

According to the veteran of Kissinger's stature "the ultimate problem is the deep-seated distrust existing between the parties. The Palestinians believe that Israel seeks to reduce the Palestinian state to a series of enclaves surrounded by Israeli territory and pierced by an Israeli road network -- in short a state virtually indistinguishable from limited internal autonomy." Neither Israel nor the US or the quartet has as yet taken any step to placate the Palestinian concerns. Rather those are intensified by number of steps taken by Israel. Both silence and inaction on the issue of Jewish settlement as well as the erection of 550 KM security fencing dubbed 'apartheid wall' by the Palestinians will only add to their concerns.

The peace deal -- highly asymmetrical in character -- may well collapse somewhere midway to be abandoned ultimately -- all at the cost of the Palestinians who would once more realise that even peace has to be bargained from a position of strength. President Bush will not give it on the platter without extracting a price for it. All that can be done in the meantime is only to set up peace decoys to douse the flame of widespread discontent in the Middle East.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.