Najaf massacre

Ayatollah Baqer headed the Iran-backed Supreme Assembly of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SAIRI). He is also a nephew of Syed Mohammad Said al-Hakim, the grand Ayatollah of Iraq's 15 million Shiite adherents who constitute a majority among the Iraqi people. The grand Ayatollah too narrowly escaped an attempt on his life last week.

The observable things in this unfolding scenario are: (a) The Shiite leadership of Iraq is the target of systematic assassination attempts, (b) Iran's backing of Iraq's Shiite leadership is under severe threat, (c) outbreak of internecine warfare between the majority Shiite and minority Sunni may help reduce the incidence of terrorist attacks on the occupation forces. A dissection of these hypotheses may reveal something else as well.

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First of all, every crime carries with it a profound motive and the killing of Ayatollah Baqer must be put into perspective before the intent of the assailants and the political consequence of such an unprovoked massacre are unearthed. The US has long been warning Iran not to interfere in Iraq's affairs. Given that Iraq's Shiite leadership receives moral backing from Iran, any US-backed faction becomes a suspect.

Conversely, if a heinous act of this magnitude can be passed as an act of Saddam loyalists, Iraq's majority Shiite would no longer support Saddam whose forces are still creating havoc against the Anglo-US occupation forces. There is yet another theory: the Ayatollah struck a deal with the occupation forces and the Iraqi freedom fighters -- irrespective of their loyalty to Saddam -- decided to neutralise this threat by killing Baqer and many others to warn the Shiite community of the consequence of any future collaboration with the occupation forces.

Whatever motive or mission might have stirred this mayhem, its ramifications will transcend the ethno-religious boundary and might delay the arrival of peace in Iraq in the near future. That in itself maybe tantamount to a moral defeat for the occupation forces due to their promise to the world to make Iraq a better place after Saddam's removal.