Palestinian-Israeli conflict reaching a point of no return?

Although the Iraq war and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict have apparently no organic link that there has been an undeclared feeling that the two were tied together. The feeling gets stronger when the behind-the-scene role of Israeli Premier Ariel Sharon is analysed. Immediately after the election of George W. Bush to the White House, Israeli Premier Ariel Sharon became a very frequent visitor and it is easy to speculate that the topic, attack on Iraq was discussed. After the elimination of Egypt as a possible challenger following the Camp David Peace Accord, the one really important Arab power in the field was Iraq. The elimination of Iraq would clear the field for Israel, who would thus assume the role of policeman of the Middle East on behalf of its master the United States of America.

Britain of Tony Blair has brought powerful support to the idea of redrawing the map of the Middle East. The reasons for Britain's enthusiasm in the US attack against Afghanistan and committing troops and going all the way in the US war on Iraq, are unclear. The only reason appears to be some sort of megalomania coupled with nostalgia for the 19th century Britain, when sun never set on the Empire. Thus whereas President Bush was happy to smash Iraq of President Saddam Hussein, Prime Minister Blair was content to extract from his friend Bush, a Road Map for the Middle East. Prime Minister Sharon extracted from President Bush the promise that Chairman Araft would have no further role to play and his handpicked Prime Minister would now handle the negotiations. Minus President Bush all his top level colleagues have been to the area and met Prime Minister Abbas and Prime Minister Sharon. Cease fire was negotiated between the parties but under the pressure of events have fallen apart. The situation is -- it is back to square one.

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Sustained efforts by President Bush strongly supported by Prime Minister Blair to get important countries to participate in the pacification effort in Iraq have not met with any degree of success. For instance, outside of Britain no other Permanent members of the Security Council like France, China or Russia are participating in the Anglo-American effort in Iraq. Turkey, the longtime ally of the US in all probability will not join hands with the US.

Both President Bush and Prime Minister Blair have become embroiled in the high profile debate on the question of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), which Saddam Hussein is supposed to hide and which were never found out. Looming before the two leaders is elections in the near future. There can be no doubt that the Iraq misadventure is going to figure prominently in the campaign.

In Britain, Prime Minister Blair is grappling with the enquiry into the death of one of its top intelligence bureaucrats, who is supposed to have supplied to the BBC high level intelligence information. British Defence Secretary Hoon has testified before the Enquiry Commission but has refused to admit guilt. In the case of President, his election is barely 16 months away. His Iraq policy is coming under sharp scrutiny. Although in the US there is the tradition of bipartisan foreign policy, it is an open question if under the strain of the campaign this is going to hold. The moral question of lying with the voters is a very important one in the US as is well known in the cases of President Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton. In any case the first signs of the Presidential election campaign is in the air. To compound President Bush's troubles news from the economic front is not particularly encouraging. The management of the US economy by President Clinton was brilliant and the health of the economy was robust. It did play a very important part in extricating him from the danger of impeachment carefully planned by his Republican rivals.

While launching on his Iraqi misadventure President Bush could not imagine the chain of events that he was starting. There are reports of daily deaths of US soldiers in the media. The figure has now crossed the total since 1 May, when President Bush announced the end of the conflict. Thus more US soldiers have died in hostile Iraqi hands than during the war.

The war in Iraq has been so encompassing that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, inspite of high level involvement by Anglo-American leadership, has been relegated to the background. It is becoming evident that the Arabs and the Israelis will have to find new leaders to tackle this seemingly intractable problem. This has been half a century of bloodshed and violence and destruction on an unimaginable scale. Yet it would be foolish to imagine that a solution is within sight.

Arshad-uz-Zaman is a former Ambassador.