Netrakona-3 by-election and foreign observers: The nation needs answers

In the past, we have unfortunately had elections such as the infamous by-election in Magura-2 in 1993 and the February 1996 general election where we witnessed events such as capturing polling centers and having more ballots cast than the number of registered voters in certain centers or constituencies. We would hope that as we continue to practice democracy in Bangladesh, the electoral process is free from such farcical issues.

The Netrakona seat fell vacant after Nurul Amin Talukdar, the BNP lawmaker, passed away a few months ago. The two main contenders for the seat were Khadija Amin (widow of late Nurul Amin Talukdar) from the Four-Party Alliance and M. Jubed Ali from Awami League. Both were seen as strong candidates since Khadija Amin would surely receive a certain number of sympathy votes while M. Jubed Ali was a legislator from that constituency in the past. Netrakona-3 encompasses an area of approximately 500 square kilometers and consists of the upazilas of Atpara and Kendua with 124 polling centers. The number of registered voters for the election was 273,471, with almost half of them being female. On the day of the election, the ground statistics were as follows: over 3,000 police, BDR and Ansar personnel deployed, an unspecified number of Army personnel patrolling the constituency, six mobile courts and a magistrate in every centre, vehicular transportation only permitted for security personnel, magistrates, polling officials, newsmen and observers, cellular network disabled during voting hours in the constituency, about 100 legislators from BNP and AL, about 100 journalists from the local and national media, and last but not least, 18 foreign observers from the European Union, British High Commission, United States Embassy, French Embassy, Australian High Commission and National Democratic Institute (NDI) and 55 local observers. By any standards, this was an impressive security arrangement as was evidenced by the relative calm and lack of violent outbreaks on the election day, which most of us were relieved to hear. The Chief Election Commissioner even made a surprise impromptu visit to the constituency, which was a wise decision as his visit was a prior request of the major Opposition party.

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The stage was thus set for what we had hoped a good showdown in the first by-election since 2001 in which Awami League was participating. However, reports of events that transpired during the day of the election leave much to be desired. The Awami League has repeated that the election was marred by widespread voter intimidation, particularly supporters and activists of Awami League and the minority community, as well as their agents being driven out of the polling centers by BNP. An impartial election does not only mean that a voter's vote is correctly registered for his or her desired candidate, but also means that a voter is free to go and cast his or her vote without fear of persecution. As such, if the Awami League allegations are true the election was by no means free or fair.

If the issue of voter intimidation were not enough, an even more disturbing development is the issue of the voter turnout percentage. Reports from various media organisations through their journalists and photographers estimated that about 25-30 per cent of votes were cast while others used terms such as a "thin" voter turnout. In fact, numerous polling centers were virtually empty throughout the afternoon as reported by the same media organisations. With these numbers in mind, it was quite confusing when the Election Commission unofficially announced that Khadija Amin received 95,251 votes while her nearest rival M. Jubed Ali polled 69,966 votes with a total voter turnout of 62.88 per cent. The numbers indicated that about every one in two voters were not noticed by the media! One, however, has to look at these numbers from a statistical point of view. For any organisation stating an estimate of the voter turnout, we need to know the statistical methodology employed that leads to the concluding figure. What was the sampling technique and how many centers were sampled are just some of the relevant statistical questions that need to be answered. The people give great importance to media reports and, therefore, we expect them to perform their job with diligence and a high standard of accuracy. Nonetheless, no organisation has stated that there was a heavy voter turnout. In fact, if we make the approximations that the votes were cast uniformly during the eight-hour voting period and that the votes were uniformly distributed among the centres, a simple calculation reveals that a vote was cast just less than every 21 seconds in each centre throughout the voting time period. It is slightly difficult to comprehend why this visually appeared to be a thin voter turnout.

To the best of my knowledge, the one community that we have not heard from about the election is that of the foreign observers. A significant amount of financial resources, time and effort have been expended by or for these foreign observers and we need to know from them, be it through reports or press conferences, what they thought of the election. We also need to know more than whether the election was fair or unfair. The foreign observers should clearly elaborate the methods they use in determining the fairness of an election and in particular, what they observed first-hand in Netrakona-3. If they detected any flaws or violations in the election code of conduct, there should be suggestions on how to rectify them or take preventive measures in the future. Did they estimate the voter turnout or did they check to see if there was any sign of voter intimidation? The observations of the foreign observers should be made transparent to us because they lend credibility to an election by serving in an unbiased capacity. Thus, we eagerly await their report, hopefully in the coming days, so that the people may confirm or dispel any doubts in their minds.

The victor of the Netrakona-3 election itself has no immediate impact on the ruling party or opposition -- the Four-Party Alliance will continue to enjoy its parliament majority either way. However, this and future by-elections will serve as reference points and indicators of what we can expect in terms of fairness and impartiality in the coming general election. In the meantime, the Awami League candidate should seek recourse of the law; the very act of initiating legal proceedings will strengthen Awami League's position both nationally and internationally. As a final point to ponder, albeit an unfortunate one, we do not trust a party in power in conducting the general elections, which is why we have the system of a non-party caretaker government; therefore, can we really trust the party in power to conduct a free and fair by-election?