BJP may put up poor show in state polls

Leaders of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are travelling on helicopters, cars and boats deep into constituencies in India's Hindi-speaking heartland where the main opposition Congress party is fighting to keep its grip on power.

The polls in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh and New Delhi, involving millions of voters, are seen as a referendum on the political ability of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's BJP, which came to power in 1999 on the coalition crutches of 23 regional parties.

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Vajpayee's see-saw four years have seen the Congress wresting power in 15 of India's 28 states despite the fact that its leader, Italian-born Sonia Gandhi, is widely rejected by Indians as the country's next potential prime minister.

The BJP on the other hand has lost six state polls, winning only in the communally sensitive Gujarat state and in the sea-resort state of Goa.

Pollsters forecast a poor show by the BJP next week and are predicting that barring Madhya Pradesh, the party will be outgunned by the Congress in the four electoral battles.

"If anything, a defeat in these elections, where it's (solely) a BJP versus Congress fight, will have an adverse moral impact on Vajpayee's performance at the federal level," said psephologist Mahesh Rangarajan.

"It is not a referendum as such on Vajpayee's performance in New Delhi," Rangarajan said. "The issues involved here are too local. But yes, if he loses badly, morally it will a beating."