'Feel good' factor likely to push India to early polls

Parliamentary elections are due before next October, but already there is intense pressure on Vajpayee to hold them in the next few months to exploit the surging fortunes of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which swept several key state elections this month.

A final decision is expected at a party meeting to be held on January 11-12 in the southern city of Hyderabad. But party spokesman Prakash Javadekar said after a meeting of senior BJP leaders that bringing forward the polls appeared to be a forgone conclusion.

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"Have you any doubt?" Javadekar said to AFP when asked about the chances of an early vote. He added that although a final decision would be taken at the Hyderabad meeting, the party leaders discussed on Friday an "action plan keeping in mind the likelihood of early elections".

"Today, the (party) general secretaries charted out a course of action in the event of an early election," he said.

The main opposition Congress party, routed in polls on December 1 in three Hindi-speaking heartland states, said it was ready to take on the BJP. "The sooner they are held, the better," Congress spokesman Anand Sharma told AFP.

The move for early national polls has gained momentum since the BJP scored its landslide wins at the state level.

Vajpayee is playing his cards close to his chest but has told party workers to get ready to face "the coming challenge".

"There is no room for complacency after the victory in the three states as time is of essence," he said on Thursday at a celebration for his 79th birthday.

A big element favouring early polls is the "feel good" factor in the country, with economists hailing 2003 as a bumper year for the economy following good monsoon rains along with a booming stock market.

The economy is forecast to grow by around seven percent -- near the government's long-term target of 8 to 10 percent.

Another factor tempting Vajpayee to call early elections is confusion in the Congress party's ranks following its rout in the state polls.

"The total disarray of the Congress camp is a huge advantage for BJP," said political analyst Yashwant Deshmukh. "The opposition is absolutely non-existent. (Congress chief) Sonia Gandhi's ratings are continuously plummeting. There seems to be no credible alternative to Vajpayee."

A slew of opinion polls have shown Gandhi, the Italian-born widow of slain prime minister Rajiv Gandhi, way behind Vajpayee in the ratings.