Bush's state of the union message

While reiterating support for lofty ideals of freedom and democracy at home and commitment to measures for social justice and employment at home, the Presidential message, as expected, generated a mixed reaction. Elections in Afghanistan, Ukraine, Palestine and finally Iraq were highlighted as success stories of his crusade for freedom and liberty. The support reiterated by him for the ongoing moves in search of an understanding between Palestine and Israel has brightened the prospect of success of his road map for peace in the Middle East. The election of Mahmoud Abbas as President of the State of Palestine, yet to be recognised as such by Israel and the West, the current unsigned truce between the two warring sides, Israel's latest decision to withdraw from some of the cities in the West Bank and the hopes generated by the forthcoming meeting between Sharon and Mahmoud, indeed, represent positive moves in right direction.

The recent election in Iraq, held fairly with much less violence and much more participation than expected, helped America pursue its policy in that country in restoring a semblance of democracy for the first time in the past half a century. Though the official results would take some more time to come, it is certain that supporters of the Shia community headed by Ayatullah Shistani will win the election with thumping majority. The Kurds living in northern territories of Mosul, Kirkuk, Arbil and Sulamaniya will elect leaders of their tribal political parties. As anticipated, the Sunnis mostly living in Baghdad, Tikrit and the central parts of the country exercised their right to franchise much less.

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The most interesting episode is going to unfurl with the announcement of the election results and the formation of a new cabinet. It is natural to expect that the United States would welcome the prospect of the incumbent Prime Minister to stay put or having someone with their blessings to be placed in that post. But it will depend mostly on the Shia chieftain to decide on the issue. The new cabinet will undertake the responsibility of providing a constitution for the country and conduct a general election in accordance with that constitution. The dissatisfaction of the Sunnis is likely to give vent to their rejection of the last election and the constitution it will then enact. How effective will that be is still a matter of conjecture. Over and above, the United States is sure to monitor every move the new Iraqi government would take towards the neighbouring Shia mentor and citadel, the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The major dissatisfaction abroad was registered in Iran and Syria, who were identified by the President in his message as principal sources of terrorism. The governments of the two countries immediately protested and rejected the accusation. Observers are ill at ease at not merely identifying such states by the President, but for the underlying implication of American policy and actions in future toward these two countries. Despite the new Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's dismissal of any suggestion to take military action against these countries, Presidential reference appears designed to caution them against their future untoward ventures and the stern reaction it would ensue. The President will definitely be ill-advised to take any military action against any country in that region, as he already finds it difficult to extricate military involvement from Iraq promptly. As a matter of fact, President faced criticisms for his inability to furnish a time table for withdrawal of troops from Iraq. He said it would be done once the Iraqis are trained and able to defend themselves. But many Americans would not like to remain in a state of uncertainty and witness continuing parade of military corpses back home as well as colossal impact of the operation on American taxpayers.

As for North Korea's nuclear issue, the President demonstrated prudence in continuing support for the multilateral diplomatic initiative to resolve the issue through negotiation. It is also impractical to act in any way that may be interpreted as a threat to a country, which reportedly possesses nuclear weapons. President's pledge to fight HIV/AIDS and diseases in Africa were well received. But his pledge fell short of a commitment to eradicate poverty, especially in Africa, Asia and Latin America, which has recently been taken up as a mission to accomplish by the revered leader, Nelson Mandela, President's attitude towards the United Nations still remains largely undefined.

On the domestic front, the most important issue raised by the President was his plan of part pivatisation of retirement benefits. He outlined his plan by depicting a gloomy picture of possible bankruptcy of the present system due to the need for increasing benefit receivers and payments in future vis-a-vis relative reduction of contributions to pay for it. Even while listening to the Presidential address, some objected to Presidential calculations in a hushed voice. Though they were democrats, the proposal will pose a veritable challenge to the President. The Democrats will not only strive to prove Presidential scheme as faulty in substance but will also seek support of the American people by terming this as a means to bestow Presidential patronage on some chosen financial firms to operate the scheme. But with the Republican majority in House of the Congress, he is expected to steam roll his favourite plan of action. The other issue on which the President was unequivocal in his firmness was his support for family values and sanctity of the institution of marriage. With the increasing tendency of people opting against marriage and the fact of legalisation of homosexuality in some states, the Presidential dictate is destined to divide the American people, though on a non-partisan basis. Judging by all standards, the President appears to have ushered in a process of 'smooth sailing' in his second term of office.

M.M.Rezaul Karim, a former Ambassador, is a member of BNP's Advisory Council.