The Ayatollahs taking up the gauntlet thrown by the Americans!
According to Hersh the US special forces are already operating on reconnaissance mission inside Iran to identify the three dozens or so nuclear and missile sites to be destroyed subsequently by precision strikes and commando task force aided by information from Pakistan in exchange of assurance that it would not have to hand over Dr AQ Khan to the US for his illegal transfer of nuclear technology. The same report also reveals that an American Commando task force had penetrated eastern Iran from Afghanistan in a hunt for underground installations.
In Israel an anti-Iran rhetoric has been brought to an yet higher pitch with campaign launched to stop Iran's nuclear programme in its tracks. The head of Israel's military intelligence Majcien Aharon Zeevi recently disclosed that Iran was only half a year away from achieving independent capability for producing enriched uranium to make atomic bomb. There are indications that Israel may in desperation repeat its feat in destroying Iraq's Osirak nuclear facility in 1982.
The US has not denied the story told by Seymour Hersh except she pointed to some inaccuracies in the report. Pakistan has however denied the report altogether.
Iranian leaders, in the meantime, have effectively countered the rhetorics emerging from Washington and Tel Aviv. They clearly seem to be in a mood to take up the gauntlet thrown by the US and give a fitting reply to her bellicosity -- notwithstanding an asymmetric power balance. Iran's top national security official Hassan Rowhani said that Iran's armed forces were prepared for any military attack by the US. "Our plans are ready and although an attack is very unlikely the plans have been approved by Supreme National Security Council and given to the military forces for implementation when required". Rowhani added "we will not react to an attack with diplomacy. We are ready to cut off the aggressors' hand."
Many Iranian commentators dismiss the spate of threats from the US. They consider those threats the result of domestic compulsion faced by Bush administration. "Much of what is being currently said about is for domestic consumption. George Bush who is dependent on invented image of a tough anti-terrorist super hero is equally dependent on invented enemy image. Hence is his desperate attempt to portray Iran as next villain". If however Iran is at all confronted -- never before the country was so resolute to face America after the early days of Islamic Revolution in 1979 when it successfully held at bay the 'great satan.'
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Hamid Reza Asafi said, "We consider (US threat) to be its psychological warfare unless some one wants to be making a major strategic mistake." Adding his voice to the Iranian criticism of the US' policy the Intelligence minister of Iran, Ali Yuneri expressed the opinion that Washington would make 'stupid mistake' if at all she translates her military threats into action. He added that "Iran was neither Afghanistan nor Iraq, Iran is the entire Islamic world and all of history." "It will neutralise any plot through its great national, military and international capabilities," he observed. Yunesi also dismissed the reports that Americans had launched a covert operation inside Iran.
In countering the propaganda barrage that it is facing, Iran has engaged the European Union in active dialogue to allay the EU's fear about the direction of its nuclear programme. As a result of the on going talks with the Europe's big three -- Britain, France and Germany -- Iran has brought its nuclear enrichment programme to a halt. Following these negotiations the Europeans, instead of issuing threats, are advocating the necessity of a sustained dialogue to defuse the crisis.
Iran's dialogue with the International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA) also appears to be progressing satisfactorily. IAEA chief El Baradei opposed the idea of coercion which in his view will only push Iran with its full blown technology underground. Iran is capable of rebuilding its bomb even at a later stage. He feels satisfied with the present state of cooperation by Iran.
In developing new strategic partnerships Iran is offering India and China lucrative investment opportunities in its oil sector. Iran has formalised a deal with China which conservative estimates say would amount to upwards of $70-80 billion. It includes Chinese Commitment to purchase 250 million tonnes of Iran's liquefied natural gas over 30 years, develop the giant Yardarvan oil field in South West Iran and import 150,000 barrels a day of crude from the field at market prices. In the long term China also hopes to participate in an Iranian pipeline project that would take oil to Caspian Sea 386 km away. From there a link with another planned pipeline from Kazakhstan to China is envisaged.
For its part Iran is turning to China for building its infrastructure including motorways and underground railway lines in Tehran. Some Chinese companies seeking niche abroad have also moved into Iran. Chinese automaker Cherry Automobile Company Limited opened its first overseas production in February 2003.
Iran has also entered into an estimated $40 billion tie up with India. It covers an Indian commitment to import natural gas from Iran over a 25-year period and develop two Iranian oil fields and gas fields. Of the two oil fields the oil and natural gas commission will have full rights in the development of Jufeir oil field which produces 300,000 barrels a day of crudes.
The development of Yardavan oil field is strategically significant as it draws Iran, China and India into a major commercial partnership that has strong geo-political overtones.
Iran with her eastward thrust in defence is now poised for the history's another unequal war after Iraq. It's efficacy will be inquisitively watched by the world if there is at all a showdown. But if the history -- the history of Iranians fired with an unparalleled zeal during and after the great revolution bringing the Ayatollahs in the citadel of power -- is any guide they gave at least a brave account of themselves.
Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.
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