The US pursuing Israel's agenda in the Levant?

Over the decades, there have been considerable demographic changes in Lebanon especially as a result of the influx of a large number of Palestinians. This caused a lot of trouble and was one of the reasons behind 15-year long civil war that wrought havoc in Lebanon. In an attempt to restore the Levants' religious harmony the Arab League summit at Taif in 1989 provided for a 50:50 share of parliamentary seats for the Christians, in spite of its minority status by then, and the Muslims and armed the prime minister with more power. Rafik Hariri, a self-made Lebanese-Saudi businessman and the prime minister of his country till last year who rebuilt his strife torn country, of course with Saudi money, had been a privy to this arrangement. Hariri's murder once again highlights the old question: Can Lebanon's multi-religious population coexist peacefully and work democracy and who in the present vacuum would catalyse the change the country is set for? The question is indeed rendered more complex with a number of external factors -- prominent being the undue Israeli interests fanned by the Americans.

Because of its large Christian population Israel too dreamt of creating a Christian Lebanon and turning it into a vassal state. In 1982 when the civil war in Lebanon was still raging Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin invaded Lebanon underestimating the Lebanese people's commitment to Arab nationalism. Although he could take Beirut and made Yasser Arafat and his PLO leave Lebanon but was hopelessly bogged down in a guerilla war with the PLO lasting 11 weeks -- the longest in the history of Arab-Israeli conflict. Although, in a deal brokered by Reagan administration both PLO and Israelis were to vacate Lebanese territory, the Israelis, however, continued to occupy south Lebanon in defiance of the UNSC resolution 425 demanding prompt pull out of the occupying Armies. Neither the US nor French pressed Tel Aviv to evacuate the occupied Lebanese territory until Israelis were defeated in the hands of Hizbollah and thrown out of Lebanon in May 2000. However, emboldened by US support Israel expelled half a million natives of Golan Heights to make space for Jewish immigrants in violation of Fourth Geneva Convention.

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Israel grudges that they are driven out of Lebanon (not totally because she still holds Sheba farm area in South Lebanon) while Syrian army is still in occupation of Lebanon wielding both military and political power. The US is not only instigating the Israelis on this count, in demanding Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon she is also creating an impression that Syria's is an occupation force like the Americans themselves are one in Iraq and Israelis are in West Bank and Gaza. On the contrary, the Syrian troops are the guest of Lebanese government which invited them during the civil war (1975-90) to restore peace and order in that embattled country and their further stay and redeployment in the present location were brought about in strict compliance with the Taif Accord, the handiwork of Arab League as endorsed by Lebanese National Assembly on October 22, 1989.

In Lebanon's complex polity where so many foreign powers are interested and too many ethno-religious and sectarian groups are required to interact with each other the political murders are nothing unusual as evident from the killings in the past of Kamal Jumblat, Progressive Socialist Party leader; Rashid Karame, the former prime minister and Bashir Gemayal, the Phalange leader and the country's president elect. Yet to exploit the situation surrounding Hariri's death the interested quarters particularly the US and its ally Israel are obliquely hinting at the complicity of Syria and its supporters in Lebanon. An unprecedented furore has been created over the tragedy by the US president who's been badgering Syria for weeks of pull out its troops from Lebanon. The pressure built up on the pro-Syrian elements galvanised the opposition's mix of Christian, Druze and Sunni Muslims to demand the withdrawal of Syrian troops who were asked not to meddle in Lebanese affair. In many years the opposition was able to hold high-energy rallies in Beirut.

But soon in an anti-climax the pro-Syrian Hizbollah put up a massive demonstration and gave vent to their strong anti-US and anti-Israel sentiments. The half a million strong rally mostly comprised of Shi'ites was organised by Hizbollah, the military and political outfit that is a "sort of third rail in Lebanon's complex political and social network". The Hizbollah angrily denounced the powers hobnobbing in Lebanon from outside and insisted that the US and allies stay out of Lebanese affair. Nasrullah, its leader, then warned Bush saying, "If the American fleet lands in Lebanon, it will be defeated."

The Americans can not afford to take these warnings lightly. Although the US' marine landings in Lebanon dates back to mid-1958 it was in early 1980s that the US deployed its marines while France sent its troops at the height of the civil war to prevent what they feared to be Lebanon's take over by the Arab national movement. The American and French military HQ in Beirut were simultaneously subjected to lorry bomb attacks by the militants in 1983 killing 250 US marines and about 150 French troops. They both fled the country leaving it in ruins. Islamic Jihad the fore-runner of today's Hizbollah claimed the responsibility.

The Americans call the members of Hizbollah terrorists but grudgingly recognise their virtues: the grassroots popularity, their courage, discipline, patriotism and selfless social service -- all rolled up in one. They are the only Arab force to inflict defeat on Israelis. The organisation remains virulently anti-American and anti-Israel and its leaders have dismissed the US and UN demand that its fighters lay down their arms. This perhaps negates the possibility of their being the catalyst of incipient changes in Lebanon. But Hizbollah is redefining itself -- edging away from the militancy and steadily raising its political profile. It already has 11 members in the parliament and the number will, the analysts reckon, increase manifold in the election in May.

The subtle change the Hizbollah has been undergoing should placate much of US' concern. But in the meantime there is no matching change in American stance particularly in disarming the Hizbollah which has by now come of an age after witnessing many ups and downs of its fortune. They can neither be browbeaten or arm-twisted, nor can they be neutralised in Lebanon's politics. That the US is aware of it is adequately reflected in its decision not to pick a fight with Hizbollah. Bush administration favours rather a moderate approach now to Hizbollah which can in turn persuade the group to seek and perhaps find some common ground with the Lebanese opposition despite Syria's tactical retreat in pulling back her troops from Lebanon.

The yet more crucial for Lebanon at the moment is to leave her alone to sort out her problems arising out of Hariri's death. Notwithstanding an US-Israeli game plan Lebanon's asset to preserve her sovereignty should be an increasingly political Hizbollah, of course, with her potent guerilla forces. The signs are already visible that, Hizbollah is already turning more nationalistic and less ideological. Apparently Hizbollah's future is in Lebanon and vice versa.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.