How 'irreversible' can the Indo-Pak peace process be ?

Efforts in the past to improve ties were mostly marked by failure, which once again not unexpected since vexed disputes that stand in the way of making India and Pakistan "friends" are too tough nuts to crack. Nevertheless, the fresh reconciliatory process that began over fourteen months ago now appears to be moving somewhat unhindered and the summit level talks in New Delhi provided an impetus to the encouraging signs. While the success of the rapprochement drive between two traditional south Asian neighbours will definitely be welcomed by those who want to see peace in the tension-ridden region, there is no denying that the task is daunting if not Herculean and needs to be assessed in the light of hard realities without downplaying the positive omens.

The recent happy developments governing the perennially belligerent India-Pakistan ties have become a matter of discussion not only in the region but also at the larger international arena for the simple reason that a glimmer of hope has arisen on the possibility of a much better India-Pakistan relations. An optimism exists in many quarters that the two nuclear-powered inimical nations may now be able to find common ground to improve their badly ruptured ties. However, this feeling is "cautious" and also "guarded" in the quarters familiar with the character of their bilateral ties, albeit the positive aspects are not lost.

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The last SAARC summit in Pakistan provided a badly needed dialogue at the level of the top leadership of the two countries on the sidelines of the conference of the seven regional heads of government and the outcome of this contact had remarkably changed the nature of the New Delhi-Islamabad

relationship. However, such optimism did exists before as well, but unfortunately fell short of expectations. Summits are not uncommon between two countries and even symbolic gestures in the form of olive branch from one side has mostly been adequately responded by the other. One can recall the "fruit diplomacy" when late Indian prime minister Indira Gandhi and late Pakistan president General Ziaul Huq gifted each other with Indian lovely "Lichis" and Pakistan's famous "Anwar Ratol" mangoes. This took place at a time when many of the contacts at bilateral level were not in good shape. Both met with violent deaths while very much in power with absolute authority but the "fruit diplomacy" is very much in the minds of those who watched it.

However, the delicious fruits could not take the sensitive bilateral ties too far as the positive ingredients created by the developments turned bitter in quick time. The Pakistani president once caused a surprise by travelling to New Delhi in short notice and visited his Alma Mater -- the St. Stephen College -- and many Indians welcomed him heartily. Things momentarily looked better although none should have seriously felt that these gestures could lead matters to a qualitatively satisfactory stage.

But this is also true that at times things which otherwise may look small can significantly contribute to breakthrough in the cumbersome diplomatic tangles and the "Ping Pong" diplomacy is a reminder although backstage painstaking efforts were required for the unexpected development that involved nations like the United States and the communist giant China. Pakistan's present president Gen Musharraf visited India four years ago and did not miss the opportunity of having a glimpse of his ancestral house in old Delhi: 1947 partition had resulted in huge migration of people between India and Pakistan and now persons in both counties occupying at the helm originally belonged to the other side of the fence. Indian premier Dr Manmohan Singh hails from West Punjab, which is now Pakistan.

But the "Agra" summit between the then Indian premier Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Pakistan president Musharraf failed to produce much results even though hype and expectation that surrounded the occasion had raised some hopes. Earlier, the Nawaz Sharif euphoria disappeared much sooner than many had expected and two sides were virtually locked in a war situation over Kargil. As such, contacts at high level do produce some sobriety in complicated and even tension-ridden ties but what is important to notice is how long can it last and how far can it go.

This time, however, the developments have been somewhat qualitatively different for the better and the "Cricket diplomacy" seems to have produced a conducive ambience. Coming close on the heels of some positive steps to bolster confidence building measures(CBM's) like the once inconceivable bus service across the line of control(LOC) in the disputed Kashmir region, the talks in the Indian capital went off fairly well in the given situation and also resulted in some other positive steps like rail communications and re-opening Karachi and Mumbai consulates. All these augur well for reconciliatory endeavour.

This encouraging conditions notwithstanding, one cannot probably lose sight of the fact that the peace process is contingent upon settlement or understanding on main bone of contention, which is obviously the Kashmir dispute. Two sides have diametrically opposite position on the issue, but are showing signs of readiness for flexibility. But how far this flexibility can go is the moot point. They have agreed to discuss the dispute but both have compulsions since it is too complex on issue although not beyond settlement. Pakistan President has to take his people and also big chunk of the "Kashmiris" along with his policy on the subject vis-à-vis the peace process with India. Some Kashmiri outfits have already described Musharraf as seeking compromise on the fundamentals of the problem but bigger organisations have not yet criticised as they have either not opposed the current drive or not casting cautious watch. Realism is dawning on different circles that the dispute cannot be settled by military might and negotiations are important.

In India too, there seems increasing awareness that flexibility is required for resolving this contentious matter and thereby create a peaceful India-Pakistan relationship. The ball has been set rolling and the road is bumpy towards eliminating the root cause of hostility. But this is how difficult things are accomplished in international relations. While one cannot fully count that the Indo-Pak peace process is " irreversible", yet hopes can be certainly placed on the current efforts. Leaders of the two countries deserve kudos for the progress achieved so far and will deserve far greater accolades if they can really turn the expectations into reality even though this will take time and assiduous efforts. For, peace between India and Pakistan is central to the peace and stability in south Asia.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist.