The only game in town

The reason is that, to my mind, the principal development in Bangladeshi politics of late has been the AL's acceptance of the notion that in order to unseat the government it will have to reconfigure itself as part of a broad-based opposition coalition, and all of the positive developments that I alluded to in the first line of this piece have occurred within the context of this understanding.

To the extent that the evidence of the AL's willingness to genuinely reach out to others in the opposition and to accommodate their concerns is mounting, this could trigger a decisive shift both in the effectiveness of the opposition to present an alternative to the current government and in public opinion.

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The most recent piece of good news for the opposition was, of course, the land-slide re-election of Mohiuddin Chowdhury as mayor of Chittagong. The most significant aspect of Mohiuddin's victory, however, was the fact that he chose to contest the election not as the AL candidate, but as the candidate of the Nagorik Committee, a broad-based opposition coalition.

But the Chittagong election was not the only piece of good news for the opposition and for the public anxiously waiting to see whether it will be offered a genuine choice for change in the next elections.

The belated decision taken by the AL high command to finally expel Joynal Hazari from the party was the first sign that the winds of change might be blowing through party headquarters. The move was more symbolic than anything else, since Hazari has not set foot in the country since the last election, but in matters such as these, the signals that the political parties emit are important.

The only question with respect to the expulsion of Hazari was why it had taken so long. He has long been the poster child for everything that had gone wrong in the last AL government, and the party had precious little to gain and much to lose by keeping him within the fold. Tactics as well as morality would have suggested that he be shown the door long ago.

The fact that the AL has finally made the break indicates that they are perhaps prepared to take a stand on principle when it comes to the issue of cleaning up their politics. Of course, to be truly convincing, the house cleaning cannot end with the expulsion of Hazari. But what we are seeing is the beginning of an internal struggle to realign the party along lines more broadly acceptable to the general public.

Even if one questions the degree of principle behind the expulsion, there is no arguing with the fact that the end of Hazari makes for good politics. In expelling him, the AL is certainly acting in a tactically smart manner and one that is likely to expand confidence in its intentions among the rest of the opposition.

Hazari's expulsion can thus be seen as another in the line of confidence building measures entered into by the AL to demonstrate, both to its potential allies in opposition and to the general public, that it is willing to listen to its critics and adjust accordingly.

The third key event of the month was the meeting between Sheikh Hasina and Dr. Kamal Hossain, who have been estranged for many years. The fact that the two are even talking to one another is a significant development on a number of fronts.

In the first place, it indicates that Sheikh Hasina is willing to countenance the notion that a rapprochement between the AL and its one-time presidential candidate might benefit the party, no minor development in and of itself.

In the second, the fact that Dr. Hossain has taken this step is an apparent endorsement, albeit tentative at this stage, of the direction in which the AL seems to be heading. It is surely no coincidence that the meeting came only days after Hazari's expulsion.

Of course, a meeting is just a meeting, but there is no question that this is a positive development for the formation of a broad-based opposition.

The common denominator in all three events is that the AL seems to have seen that its best bet is to reconceive itself as part of a broad-based coalition against the government.

This might be a more effective gambit than going it alone. The public is still somewhat distrustful of the AL, and it needs to show that it has changed and learned from its mistakes. More than that, it needs to show that it can be a team player and that a broad-based opposition would not be dominated by it, or merely be the AL by another name.

Returning to the issue of the Chittagong election, what was demonstrated was not only the efficacy of running as a coalition candidate, but also the fact that such a coalition could successfully mobilise its supporters and activists to protect its votes and voters.

The AL has made strenuous allegations of rigging with respect to the 2001 elections. These allegations didn't get much traction among the public, and even worse for the AL was the fact that no one much cared even if the allegations were true.

Most people are very cynical and believe that both parties try to steal elections. If one party is more able to do so, many people reason, this is merely evidence of their superior organisation and efficiency.

A more nuanced take that I have also heard is that if the AL, even after five years of incumbency, could not protect its votes and voters, how could it hope to do so in the coming elections after five years in opposition.

This is in fact a concern not just of the AL, and I have heard concerns about the integrity of the coming elections expressed by a wide range of opposition politicians. The ruling alliance has been busy putting its people in all the crucial positions, and with its control over the constitution of the election commission and the caretaker government, the fear is that the fix is in.

Chittagong demonstrated that mobilisation to counter efforts to rig the election might not be hopeless.

One lesson learned is that it would take a broad-based coalition to protect the vote. It is doubtful that the AL by itself would have been able to mobilise sufficient support in Chittagong to ensure that the ruling party machinations were neutralised.

The key to Mohiuddin's victory was not just the votes he amassed by virtue of his Nagorik Committee candidacy, but also the support he was able to mobilise on the ground on the day of the election to protect his voters and ensure an accurate count.

Whether this kind of success can be replicated all over the country in a general election remains to be seen. But one thing is certain, in the absence of a unified and broad-based opposition coalition it would be hard to persuade the voting public that genuine change is in the offing, and even harder to ensure the integrity of the vote.

For the opposition, unity is the only game in town.

Zafar Sobhan is Assistant Editor of The Daily Star.