Blair has seen the writing on the wall

Labour, very cleverly focussed not only on the economy -- announced more money for school lunches and measures to reduce child poverty but also sought to identify with issues traditionally taken up by the Conservatives. This included asylum seekers and immigration. By doing so, they projected the policy that they were not 'soft' as was being claimed by the Conservatives.

This approach was however controversial to say the least. Such views about immigration satisfied the far-right but also disturbed many of Labour's traditional supporters. This resulted in sharp decline in the ethnic minority support for the Labour party.

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It plummeted from 75 percent in 2001 to 58 percent in 2005.

A total of 3,518 candidates representing 211 parties ran for the 646 seats in the House of Commons. This figure included 722 women, or just about a fifth of the total. The Labour Party fielded 171 women, compared to 145 for Charles Kennedy's Liberal Democrats and 122 for Michael Howard's Conservatives. It may be mentioned here that the new House of Commons will be smaller than the 659 seat pervious House as it has lost 13 Scottish constituencies due to Scotland having gained its own Assembly under devolved powers.

The British electorate gave Blair his birthday gift of a third term but also underlined their dissatisfaction about Blair's policies very clearly. Labour's majority of 167 in the 2001 election was sharply reduced by nearly a hundred seats in the new Parliament. The Conservatives did best in the South-East, where they had a 2.3 percent increase in the share of the vote. In London, they regained Putney, Wimbledon and Enfield. They also defeated two sitting Labour ministers in Shipley and Hatfield. The Tories had a net gain of about 40 seats and the Liberal Democrats twelve. What was important however was the gain made by Liberal Democrats in quite a few Labour and Conservative constituencies.

For most people this discontent arose out of Blair's policy with regard to Iraq. The voters expressed their unhappiness not only for taking the country into a very unpopular war based on misleading facts. Nowhere was this antipathy better reflected than in the historical Labour stronghold of Bethnal and Bow constituency in East London (which includes Tower Hamlets with its large Bangladeshi origin population). Here renegade ex-Labour MP and Iraq war critic George Galloway ran on an anti-war ticket from the newly created Respect Party and defeated Labour's Oona King who had staunchly supported the war. Galloway obtained 36 percent of the vote as opposed to Labour's 34 percent. This entire belt has a strong immigrant population with South Asian roots and Islam as their faith. Their unhappiness over Iraq was also exhibited in the strong support for the Respect Party in East Ham, West Ham, Popular and Canning Town and in the Birmingham Sparkbrook and Small Heath constituencies.

One thing has become clear. The war in Iraq has hurt Blair more than it did Bush. In the American campaign, Bush arguably succeeded in turning the war into an electoral asset, linking the pursuit of Saddam Hussein to the fight against terrorism that began after the attacks of September 11. Contrary to Britain, it did not seem to matter to middle-America that no illicit weapons of mass destruction had been found. Blair's situation was markedly different. His campaign was battered in the final two weeks by the news of more casualties among British soldiers, the appearance of a dead soldier's tearful mother and orchestrated leaks of government documents. The campaign also took place six months after the US elections, a period in which frustration has further grown among anti-war activists who still cannot discover any end-game to the problem. Richard Sennett of the London School of Economics has also underlined this aspect and pointed out that Blair's association with Bush has affected him as it did the leaders in Spain and Poland.

The South Asian ethnic element was also important in six other constituencies. Five persons of Indian origin won from the Labour Party and one made it from the Conservatives. None of them were however from the Muslim faith or of Bangladeshi origin. It was clear from this that both the Bangladeshi and Pakistani origin populations, despite being active in local politics, continue to suffer from lack of unity and purpose as compared to those from India.

It is unlikely that Blair will make significant shifts in his domestic policy despite his promise of willing 'to listen and learn'. His re-nomination of Straw as Foreign Secretary (mostly responsible for disinformation on Iraq), return of Blunkett in the Cabinet and the controversial appointment of Andrew Adonis as junior Education Minister do not however suggest significant changes in strategic policy. This can spell trouble, as Blair is no longer his Party's best asset and has a weaker mandate. He will need to be more careful in the way he deals with the backbench of his own Party. This time round, a revolt by 35 Labour MPs could seriously paralyse his efforts within the House. He has received only a meagre 36 percent of the vote, making Labour the most unpopular party to form a majority government since the 1832 Reform Act. That will be exploited by both the government's enemies in the media and the opponents in the House of Lords to challenge its legitimacy.

The future Labour government will also be considerably affected by the sensitive, delicate and complex relationship that will have to exist between Blair and his Chancellor Gordon Brown.

Part of Tony Blair's purpose for 'putting an expiry date' on his term in office might have been to reduce potential criticism from within his Party ahead of the election. However, this decision might now come back to haunt him as a 'lame-duck' Prime Minister and also influence the expected transition before the end of the elected term. Many Labour MPs are already suggesting that Blair quit before the end of this year. Others like former Foreign Secretary Robin Cook and Minister Clare Short have suggested that Blair fix his own time-table, but consider handing over the reins of power after concluding his Presidencies of the G8 and the EU. In any case, the prevailing sentiment is 'sooner than later'.

The idea behind this is to give Brown a reasonable chance to settle in before the next general elections are due. It would be wise for Blair to remember that Gordon Brown might have been a picture of loyalty during the campaign, but he has allowed his impatience to show in the past, and cannot be relied on to wait long for the inheritance he clearly thinks is his.

'The Guardian', published from London, an ally of the Labour Party has made its own observation in this regard after the electoral victory -- 'the politics of the ensuing days and weeks will focus on the future of Mr. Blair now that his superhuman majorities have been cut down to something more like politics as normal'. This view is important given the upcoming economic forecasts for Britain and some of the serious tasks ahead for both Blair and Gordon Brown.

Brown became Britain's longest serving finance Chief, without interruption, last June. He went past the record set earlier by David Lloyd George between 1908 and 1915. Under Brown, the British economy has grown steadily and unemployment is also at its lowest level in 30 years.

There are signs however that this jewel might be about to lose its sparkle. Figures out this week have shown that retail sales are falling at their fastest pace since the slump of the early 1990s. The economy is also feeling the pinch of higher interest rates, rising fuel bills, the end of the house price boom and the threat of higher taxes. This has led some analysts to predict that interest rates have peaked at 4.75 percent and will have to come down later this year. This unease has already led to the buffering of the pound and the gaining of gilts. All these are elements associated by economists with slackening expansion in services industry, a contraction in manufacturing and a cooling housing market.

Brown definitely has a difficult year ahead. Added to this will be the uncertainty about when Blair will be ready to hand over the baton.

This scenario for transition has become that much more complicated as certain issues also need to be addressed by Blair. Foremost among them are -- the decision about when to ease out from Iraq, the replacing of the Trident submarines, the obtaining of an international agreement on conventional weapons, the streamlining of the immigration and asylum process, the conducting of the G8 Presidency, the holding of the referendum on the EU Constitution (probably in the first half of next year) and focussing more on climate change as a consequence of emissions from industrial plants. Last, but not the least, would be the tasks of implementing proposed Israeli withdrawal from occupied Palestinian territory, maintaining a stable situation in South Asia and not becoming controversial over impending UN Security Council expansion.

All these tasks are important and fraught with uncertainties. They will also definitely impact on the next British general election.

Brown will try to find his own solution to a possible economic slowdown and Blair will also try to leave his own imprint on foreign relations and the public services. This will mean an active engagement for both despite previously stated intentions of Blair. Such delay should however not be the cause of great alarm for the Labour Party as their main rival, the Conservatives, will continue to be embroiled in more disarray (electing a new leader) following their third consecutive loss.

I personally do not see the British Prime Minister giving up his post before October 2007, despite being seen as damaged goods by many in the Labour camp. Many might have voted for Labour hoping that they will soon have a Prime Minister Brown, but in all probability, that will have to wait for the time being.

For Bangladesh, which has always enjoyed positive and cooperative relationship with Britain under several Labour Administrations, Blair, as well as Brown, are two sides of the same coin. They are both friends of Bangladesh.

Muhammad Zamir is a former Secretary and Ambassador -- any response to mzamir@dhaka.net.