F-16s and related debates

The core of the ongoing composite dialogue -- given a boost at an informal summit in Delhi recently -- remains Kashmir. However, no progress has been made nor is there any indication of forward movement as yet on the issue. Notwithstanding the pronouncements on both sides, any induction of armaments into the region can only bring back the spectre of war clouds.

When the absence of any meaningful progress on even less contentious issues in Indo-Pak negotiations has raised question marks about the future of peace, the US offer of strategic aircraft both to India and Pakistan is bizarre and baffling. Is it then a quick fix, that the subcontinent's two arch-rivals obligingly resolve their differences so that the US can go about its oft-repeated objective of creating a strategic relation with India and its schemes of things in the region -- unhinged from Indo-Pak gridlock -- unhindered?

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From Pakistan's point of view, the most significant element in the new arrangement is the US decision to sell F-16s to Pakistan, which is a reversal of US policy dating back to 1990, when Washington blocked the sale of F-16s as a sanction against Pakistan's nuclear weapons programme.

As a part of new strategy, Washington also announced plan for a "decisively broader strategic relationship with India." As part of the plan the US, has offered India F-18 aircrafts, with a license to manufacture them in India. It also offered to help New Delhi increase its missile defence and early warning system.

Therefore, there is no reason for New Delhi to worry about the US supplying F-16s to Pakistan -- because what the US is now offering India is far more substantial and strategic in content. What is more significant for India is Dr. Rice's remark that America wants to help India become a major world power in the 21st century. Apparently the mood is buoyant in New Delhi, and the US offer of F-16s to Pakistan is also a pleasant surprise for that country.

But at a time when the US is encouraging confidence building measures between the South Asian adversaries to help them resolve their conflicts, including the one in Kashmir, its decision to sell F-16s to Pakistan and F-18s to India cannot be seen as anything other than Machiavellian. The cynical move on the part of the Bush administration, which can stoke the fire of arms race in the region and at any time bring back the war clouds on the subcontinent's horizon, is indeed mischievous.

The baffled Pakistanis are at a loss to grasp to what purpose these aircrafts will be put at this belated stage, except satisfy the egos of the generals. The country has already crossed some of its crucial security hurdles, and all it needs at this stage is a massive nation-building effort, including human resources and socio-economic development, where F-16s have no role.

Moreover, the bitter legacy of US refusal to supply Pakistan F-16s even when the aircrafts were paid for is still fresh in memory. Only a few months ago, some American officials had dismissed the F-16s even as an agenda item. Pakistan was even made to pay for the storage charges of the aircrafts the Pakistanis did not even touch. Therefore, the sudden volte face on the part of the Bush administration is indeed enigmatic. However, President Bush has also praised Pakistan for being a good partner in the global war on terror. Are they then the wage for Pakistan's meritorious role as frontline state? These aircrafts can be seen as a gesture to encourage the Pakistanis to continue to play the same role.

In the meantime, the Bush administration seems to have thrown to the winds all pretensions of bringing about democracy in Pakistan, and seems in fact reconciled to its nuclearisation, provided it maintains due discipline with regard to its proliferation.

Peace in South Asia is more a matter of expediency for the US, and the conditions prevailing there can be anything so long they are not inimical to US interests.

In any case, the motives behind the supply of a new arsenal to Pakistan by the US are out and out suspect. It may be trying to put India on notice that it ought not demand a high price for strategic partnership with the US on one hand, and at the same time be trying to please Pakistan for services rendered so far and the services that may be needed in future.

It is debatable how F-16s at this belated stage help Pakistan's security. But the Americans have achieved several objectives in the process -- saved jobs (Lockheed Martin producing F-16s in Bush's home state was going to lay off workers without fresh orders for sale), saved plants, pleased the Pakistan government, and put pressure on India. If there is a casualty of the whole exercise it will invariably be peace and stability.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.