Is there any possibility of early election?

The demands that have been made by the opposition political parties including the main opposition AL to overcome the present political impasse include, among others, (1) reforming the CTG and (2) reforming the EC. According to newspaper reports, the AL in consultation with the opposition parties will 'present before the nation' the detailed proposals on these two issues sometime this month. Although the BNP high command earlier ruled out the possibility of any reform in the CTG and the EC, it has recently indicated the government's readiness to discuss the issue relating to reforms in the EC in parliament. The BNP leadership seems to have realised that a combined proposal of all opposition parties for reforms in the caretaker system of government and in the EC cannot be taken casually. But it will be difficult for the BNP to accede to the oppotice who retired last, is the first choice for appointment as the Chief Adviser to the CTG.

The government action that has sparked off the opposition demand for reforms in the CTG is the raising of the retirement age of the Judges of the Supreme Court. Although the BNP-led alliance government justifies the extension of the retirement age of the Judges of the country's apex court from sixty-five years to sixty-seven years through the Constitution (Fourteenth Amendment) Act, 2004 on the ground of shortage of Judges there, yet the timing of the amendment appears to be a calculated one. The amendment has made room for the immediate past retired Chief Justice KM Hasan who was 'the secretary of the international committee of the BNP' during the regime of President Ziaur Rahman, to be the Chief Adviser of the next CTG. So, the opposition parties including the AL have termed the amendment motivated. It may be mentioned that the amendment will enable our Judges in the apex court to be the oldest serving Judges when compared with the serving Judges of the Supreme Courts in our neighbouring countries. The Judges of the Supreme Courts in India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal retire at the age of sixty-five years.

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However, if the demand for reforms in the CTG takes the form of a popular demand, the Prime Minister may opt to recommend to the President to dissolve the Parliament and the President is constitutionally bound to go by the advice of the Prime Minister. This will pave the way for appointment of Justice KM Hasan as the Chief Adviser to the next CTG. In that case there will be no other alternative but to hold the election to the ninth parliament under the CTG system that exists in the Constitution.

Second, the BNP leadership is fully aware of the consequences of a combined opposition movement. It has seen how a combined opposition move brought the fall of the Ershad government in 1990. The combined opposition movement in 1994-95 for the introduction of CTG system still haunts the BNP. The combined demand of the opposition parties forced the then BNP government to dissolve the fifth parliament before the completion of its tenure. The major opposition parties including the AL boycotted the election to the sixth parliament. During the short-lived sixth parliament, the BNP government unilaterally introduced the caretaker system of government through the Constitution (Thirteenth Amendment) Act, 1996, which provides, inter alia, that the President shall appoint as the Chief Adviser the person who among the retired Chief Justices retired last.

Third, 'the young Turks' in the BNP have already assumed the responsibility to gear up the organisational activities of the party, particularly to strengthen the party's grassroots organisations, under the leadership of the Prime Minister's son Tarique Rahman who is also the senior joint secretary of the party. The old guards of the party are gradually being cornered. An English weekly (Holiday) of Dhaka in its November 26, 2004 issue wrote that the divide in the ruling BNP cropped up particularly during the process of nominating party candidates for the general election held in 2001, and widened during the formation of the Cabinet after the victory in the polls. The weekly quoted a senior BNP leader telling a national daily that the divide was still there and a section of the young leaders were trying to grab power at all levels. In order to establish the young leaders in the government under the leadership of Tarique Rahman, the Prime Minister may choose an early election to the ninth parliament.

Last but not the least, the BNP high command may think that macro-economic stability, improvement in law and order situation through the deployment of rapid action battalion (RAB) and a comfortable food situation due to a bumper boro crop this year provide an opportunity to seek people's mandate afresh early in favour of the BNP-led alliance government for the second term. Though the recent mayoral election has created some despair and dissatisfaction in the BNP-led four-party alliance government, yet the BNP high command would like to treat the Chittagong mayoral election defeat as an isolated event with no bearing on the next general election.

Bangladesh has held so far eight parliamentary elections. The first parliamentary election held on March 7, 1973 under the AL government was won by the AL. The second parliamentary election held on February 18, 1979 under the BNP government was won by the BNP. The third and fourth parliamentary elections held on May 7, 1986 and March 8, 1988 respectively under the Jatiya Party (JP) government was won by the JP. The combined opposition movement for a caretaker government to hold general elections fairly and neutrally led to the fall of the JP government of President Ershad who handed over power to the Chief Justice Shahabuddin Ahmed, a nominee of the combined opposition. The fifth parliamentary election that took place on February 27, 1991 under the caretaker government of President Shahabuddin Ahmed was won by the BNP. The sixth parliamentary election held on February 15, 1996 under the BNP government was won by the BNP. During the short-lived sixth parliament, the BNP government formally introduced the CTG system in the Constitution in 1996. The two parliamentary elections (7th and 8th) held on June12, 1996 and October 1, 2001 under the CTG introduced in 1996 were won by the AL and the BNP-led four-party alliance, respectively. Excepting the seventh parliament, no other parliament could complete its term.

To conclude, it would not be a surprise if the aforesaid factors and any other plausible factor convince the BNP-led four-party alliance government, particularly the BNP high command, to go for early election to the ninth parliament.

M. Abdul Latif Mondal is a former Secretary to government.